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Post by stealthmanbob on Oct 8, 2015 10:02:50 GMT 1
(this new thread was the continuation of the post here a380.boards.net/post/58741/thread ) -------------------------------------------------- Actually Fabrice Brégier said 'at least 30'. How about a new competition ? How many A350 will be delivered in Cal year 2016 ? We would have to have a last voting date of say end of October 2015 to stop it getting out of hand ? *** rule clarification *** the A350-1000 test frames don't count as they will not be being delivered to a customer, no arguments ! Here are the FINAL 35 FROZEN bets 32 FabienA380 33 bmw801 34 nicolele 35 savoyard74 36 x4 henge XWB solly HL7615 37 addasih 38 philidor 39 a380admirer 40 kevo350a 41 x2 pa380scal Shadow123 42 x2 Baroque s543 43 limoncello 44 x2 airny behappy 45 x2 avest005 a380limey 46 sciing 47 grisu17 48 mjoelnir 49 someone 50 jkkw 51 julytourist 52 stealthmanbob 53 sunjet 54 vb6610 55 tris06 56 muc 57 Festus 58 philipp60 BA380-G-XLEA
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Oct 8, 2015 10:06:33 GMT 1
I think 30 is a good number, that's a 100% output increase.
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Post by stealthmanbob on Oct 8, 2015 10:09:20 GMT 1
I think 30 is a good number, that's a 100% output increase. Delivery not output ? Yes but the loading rate has been increasing and should hit 5 a month by January ? If they only deliver 30 they will run out space to park the ones coming of the line ? PS I don't mind doing the admin if people think it would be a bit of fun ? Great to look back at the end of Dec 2016 and see how we fared?
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Oct 8, 2015 10:13:18 GMT 1
Yes, assembly loading will go to 5 per month in January 2016. But as always: production is not the same as delivery. At 5 per month the assembly lead time will be 6 months (in other words, it takes 6 months to assemble and deliver an A350). That means the delivery stream won't hit 5 per month until mid-2016.
At 10 per month the lead time will be down to 2.5 - 3 months, about the same as the A330 and 787 today.
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Post by stealthmanbob on Oct 8, 2015 10:19:37 GMT 1
That's why my guess is above 30 but below 60, also I am thinking a few frames expected to be delivered this year will slip into 2016.
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Oct 8, 2015 10:27:17 GMT 1
Oops, of course
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Post by bmw801 on Oct 8, 2015 11:44:02 GMT 1
I will start with a bid of 42 I'll be a bit more conservative an would etimate 33 deliveries. Regarding cabin supplieres:
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Oct 8, 2015 13:36:37 GMT 1
My bet on A350 deliveries in 2016 is 48 frames.
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Post by stealthmanbob on Oct 8, 2015 13:37:28 GMT 1
I will start with a bid of 42 I'll be a bit more conservative an would etimate 33 deliveries. Regarding cabin supplieres: I guess we have a game then ? I will await a response from @fabiena380 before creating a thread ?
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Oct 8, 2015 16:03:56 GMT 1
And what would be the deadline for guessing I do believe we should be well over 40.
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