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Post by Shadow123 on Aug 29, 2017 9:48:14 GMT 1
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Sept 1, 2017 10:28:12 GMT 1
I am back from a short vacation, and it's such a nice surprise to discover this new development. This is a ray of sunshine in the otherwise grim A380 sky.
The site that broke the news (ch-aviation.com) is quite serious, and this is information, not speculation in my opinion. Let me quote again one paragraph from Kronus' post upthread.
"The Portuguese ACMI/charter specialist's president and chief executive Paulo Mirpuri said in an e-mailed statement that the first of two A380-800s would be put into commercial operation during the first quarter of 2018. A formal announcement concerning the requisite aircraft's identities, as well as their end-customer operator, will only be made in October once all the relevant contracts and permits are in place", he added.
An email from the CEO is a serious source, and he is saying that they are doing it, not just considering the possibility. It seems that they are doing the paperwork to finalise an agreement. The odds are very high that the deal will be completed soon.
Nothing says that the birds are ex-SQ, but the timelime is a strong indication. I don't believe MH's A380s would meet HighFly's needs, they are almost new and certainly much more expensive than ex-SQ ones. I also don't believe MH would jettison its plans to reconfigure its fleet to operate high density flights, they seem to be serious about it.
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Post by ff on Sept 1, 2017 12:35:49 GMT 1
Am I right to believe that Hi Fly was the operator did a lot of deals with Iran during the years that aircraft was banned to be exported to Iran?
I seem to remember quite a few ex-Virgin Atlantic A340-600 and other Airbus second hand aircraft were exported to Iran through Hi Fly Malta.
This is purely speculation, will they be doing this kind of deal again - source second hand A380 for Iran, as they were interested in A380 anyway and love a bargain as well? That would explain the long lead time as well.
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Post by Jkkw on Sept 6, 2017 16:11:43 GMT 1
The link in the tweet contains a podcast interview with the CEO of HiFly on the A380. Since I'm about to sleep I'll summarise some of the points in the podcast once I wake up get back from uni since I don't have enough time in the morning (unless someone else does it first)
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Post by Jkkw on Sept 7, 2017 8:47:06 GMT 1
Here's the above podcast summarised in note form.
-They started looking at the aircraft 2 years ago as customers were looking for larger aircraft and lower per seat costs.
-With Airbus, they evaluated the capability of Lisbon and Beja Airport to ensure they could bring the aircraft back to base. They also analysed factors such as pilot training, EFB packages and engine support
-The conclusion was it was technically and operationally possible to phase in the aircraft
-Given how long the A380 has been in service, aircraft have been ammortised by around a half and therefore are financially more viable with a more competitive cost
-Business case made sense, hence their decision to continue.
-Airlines see the A380 as a risky purchase since they have to fill the aircraft year round. HiFly believes their business model will help solve this issue as airlines can lease the aircraft for half a year during their particular peak season before HiFly can lease the aircraft to other airlines who have opposing peak seasons.
-The initial contract for the first aircraft will likely see HiFly place the aircraft for a full year with the second aircraft likely to be operated on a more seasonal basis and as a backup for the first aircraft.
-HiFly believes some operators may then move on to purchase or lease aircraft for themselves
-The aircraft will be reconfigured to seat at least 560 seats although they're currently seeing if they can get it up to 600.
-They estimate that on long/very long haul flights, the per seat saving for the aircraft will be around 20%. Problem as always for the aircraft is whether the customer can fill the seats although the markets where they're working with clients on are slot restricted routes with generally strong demand. Some are seasonal, and some may be able to support the aircraft year round.
-If the first 2 aircraft are successful, they can see the fleet growing to 4 or even 6 aircraft over the next 4-5 years, depending on how many aircraft are available in a financially acceptable condition.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Sept 7, 2017 8:53:29 GMT 1
Still waiting to hear who they are going to operate them for.
Geoff
P.s. Best guess that I've heard is Iran Air.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Sept 7, 2017 10:17:46 GMT 1
Thank you for the excellent summary, jkkw !
Key to their success seems to be confirmation that there are potential customers with opposing peak seasons. Yet, they can dodge the problem if their initial customer does plan year-round operation.
Another obvious issue is the need for a backup aircraft during scheduled or unscheduled maintenance - a serious problem in a very small fleet of used aircraft ! So far, the smallest A380 fleet is China Southern (5 units) ; I am not surprised that they intend to reach that number, I even think they cannot have long-term success if they don't.
I wish them all the best !
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Sept 7, 2017 10:30:29 GMT 1
Still waiting to hear who they are going to operate them for. That's a tantalising question ! Who is ready to launch new A380 flights ? Iran Air is just one possibility among many others. It could be an existing A380 operator intending to test a new market with a new configuration. There is an emerging rumour that EK wants to try an all-economy A380 configuration - could it be with a different brand ? Of course, with EK more aircraft would be needed, so that I would not connect these dots. IAG and ANA, however, are not to be discarded ... If on the other hand we imagine that a new operator wants to try the A380, then we have a large choice. In the past, TK would have been interested ...
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Post by airboche on Sept 7, 2017 11:33:17 GMT 1
TK is said to be looking for up to eight leased new 747-8 now.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Sept 7, 2017 14:27:12 GMT 1
TK has not fully recovered and does not need capacity now.
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