s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Feb 10, 2016 17:53:08 GMT 1
"The market consensus is for Boeing's 747 production to end after completing the Air Force One requirement, with investment bank Credit Suisse predicting a 2018 fourth-quarter programme termination."
Probably earlier than we thought, but prediction has been made by Credit Suisse. I doubt it will last so long - only if the completion of those VC25 would be very slow - and 100% sure it will be. The more interesting question is when will the last produced commercial 748 be ready for delivery - and I believe it will be in 2017
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Post by gennadius01 on Feb 10, 2016 23:42:19 GMT 1
Well, Flightglobal is reporting that Boeing believes it will have a rate increase for the 747-8 back to 1 per month in 2019. They mention again the large cargo frame replacement cycle. There is also mention that they are continuing to work on orders in the near term, but unless those materialize, the program may encounter another forward loss charge due to existing white tails and unsold production slots. It will be interesting to see how the ABC frames get allocated and if the rumored Air China top-up gets finalized sometime this year. I don't believe the NCA frames are at risk of cancellation, why would they do that when they could have just cancelled them along with the others late last year? There was also talk of a 5 frame order from Cargolux last year, I expect that may have been pushed back because of the flattening of the market in the second half of 2015, but I would assume Boeing will be pushing to firm that up this year.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 11, 2016 1:21:05 GMT 1
One major aspect of Boeing's 748 problem is that at least a large part of the market does not seem to believe the type has any future, which may be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Feb 11, 2016 1:48:42 GMT 1
Well, Flightglobal is reporting that Boeing believes it will have a rate increase for the 747-8 back to 1 per month in 2019. They mention again the large cargo frame replacement cycle. There is also mention that they are continuing to work on orders in the near term, but unless those materialize, the program may encounter another forward loss charge due to existing white tails and unsold production slots. It will be interesting to see how the ABC frames get allocated and if the rumored Air China top-up gets finalized sometime this year. I don't believe the NCA frames are at risk of cancellation, why would they do that when they could have just cancelled them along with the others late last year? There was also talk of a 5 frame order from Cargolux last year, I expect that may have been pushed back because of the flattening of the market in the second half of 2015, but I would assume Boeing will be pushing to firm that up this year. Very mixed messages from Boeing. I'm still viewing the 'if the market picks up we'll sell more' attitude as very optimistic. The comment about further losses is more pertinent as it indicates they are prepared to keep the line open even without new orders. More information about frames entering production and the 'firing order' will become available soon and will shed more light. Geoff
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Feb 11, 2016 9:34:58 GMT 1
Right.... Geoff but one thing is for sure - if they will not sell more planes they simply have no other choice.... And wishing - them good - do we see those sales to appear "soon". I am afraid we do not ! Maybe few 8Fs might come. Cargolux or other big freighter ? Do we believe the famous ABC MoU will realize ? I strongly doubt the Air China order. They do have all ordered ones (7x 8i) delivered and they do have 30x777 + 53x330 + on order 6x77W + 15x789 + 10xA359. They now have only 2x744 (22 years) + (1xVIP744) If they decide they are in need of really big plane they might go for A380 - for sure better choice. But who knows.... It does not belong here - but speaking of Air China - interestingly they do operate now 262 various NB planes (about 1:1 AB:BO) and have not a single one on order !
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Post by ff on Feb 11, 2016 10:32:42 GMT 1
I don't believe the NCA frames are at risk of cancellation, why would they do that when they could have just cancelled them along with the others late last year? There was also talk of a 5 frame order from Cargolux last year, I expect that may have been pushed back because of the flattening of the market in the second half of 2015, but I would assume Boeing will be pushing to firm that up this year. Frame makers keep orders on their book, for various reasons. For both B748 and A380, even with slight chance an order get materialised in the future, they will keep them on the book. Airlines can negotiate very good terms not just on price, but also on delivery options (almost 100% flexible) on large orders (A320/B737) or hard to sell frames (B748/A380).
The Cargolux rumour was for a joint venture with a Chinese company, and base 5 frames in the middle of China. With the current economic climate in China, this is not going to happen very soon, if it ever happens.
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Post by ff on Feb 11, 2016 10:42:29 GMT 1
It does not belong here - but speaking of Air China - interestingly they do operate now 262 various NB planes (about 1:1 AB:BO) and have not a single one on order ! CA has various orders with Airbus A320, not just the 3 on here www.planespotters.net/airline/Air-China The state controlled aviation supplier company (can't remember the exact name) making large orders with Airbus or Boeing, then Chinese airlines sign sub-contract to purchase them when they need them.
With the A320 production line in Tianjin, often sub-contract been signed very late for taking delivery within months, even weeks. It was a guarantee from Chinese authority that every single frame out of Tianjin production line will be purchased by Chinese airlines, so CA plays fair share on ordering them. It may not show on order, but certainly they are on the way to be delivered to CA.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Feb 11, 2016 11:01:32 GMT 1
CA has various orders with Airbus A320, not just the 3 on here www.planespotters.net/airline/Air-China The state controlled aviation supplier company (can't remember the exact name) making large orders with Airbus or Boeing, then Chinese airlines sign sub-contract to purchase them when they need them.
With the A320 production line in Tianjin, often sub-contract been signed very late for taking delivery within months, even weeks. It was a guarantee from Chinese authority that every single frame out of Tianjin production line will be purchased by Chinese airlines, so CA plays fair share on ordering them. It may not show on order, but certainly they are on the way to be delivered to CA.
That was my (silent) guess - they might be in the dozens of Unidentified Customers.....
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Feb 12, 2016 11:43:51 GMT 1
An updated analysis of 747-8 production, based on this excellent source ; docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hD2Gkil30TiAIaV52BgTtfUrPyTdyi8qvCN59c_LHjU/pubThe official Boeing report of unfilled orders shows a total of 19 ( including 7 freighters ) Three of these have been built and being stored ( 1 x BBJ and 2 x Transaero ) There are 3 on the flightline and 3 in final assembly. Note that there is also one for ABC on the flightline but these frames are not recorded as orders, presumably due to the fact that Boeing are retaining ownership of the frames operated by ABC. So 19 minus 9 ( 3+3+3 ) leaves 10. Of these 10, the further 2 for Transaero will not be taken up and 4 ( Arik and Nippon Cargo, 2 each ) are doubtful at best. The remaining 4 ( 1 for Cargolux and 3 for Korean ) are shown in the 'firing order' and due to enter final assembly by June this year. The firing order shows frames up to LN1540. At the current production rate ( 8 in 6 months ) all of these will enter final assembly by the end of June. 3 of these are 'unallocated' and I'm guessing will go to ABC but 2 of them could be for Nippon Cargo. A further 4 or 5 frames will enter final assembly in the second half of the year. Boeing either needs new orders for these or they will be building 'whitetails'. Will be interesting to see if they are all freighters. Geoff
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Feb 12, 2016 11:47:52 GMT 1
And Boeing just yesterday predicts in 2019 the production to be back to 1,5/month
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