XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Feb 17, 2014 12:35:19 GMT 1
Spirit delivered 34 A380 shipsets last year, up from 24 in 2012.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 17, 2014 14:38:11 GMT 1
Following the discovery of the wing crack issue, the wing factory was temporarily closed in 2012 to accomodate production of the new wing. This resulted in the TLS FAL being understocked at the beginning of 2013, and led to a drop in production from 30 in 2012 to 25 in 2013.
The higher pace of deliveries in 2013 already has allowed an increased number of frames to enter or go through final assembly.
I expect 2014 numbers to be < 2013 numbers since Airbus has set production at a rate of 30 per year, and the stocks are adequate.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Feb 17, 2014 18:43:11 GMT 1
Spirit delivered 34 A380 shipsets last year, up from 24 in 2012. View AttachmentI would expect a corresponding production increase, those parts should be made at the right time for delivery, not on stock.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Feb 17, 2014 19:57:53 GMT 1
There is a question of timing - how long before the convoy should the shipsets arrive ? It is a few month !
I do believe that the production decrease in 2013 was mainly due to the capacity occupied by planes undertaking wing repair, but it might have been more influences ? Does someone really know ?
I can hardly imagine that the shipsets are stored for significant time. We do know that airbus is "in time" operation, i.e. all the items are delivered exactly prior the needs come.
All the VW factories have supplies for about 3 hours of production (!!!!! - well documented - when the highway to the factory gets clogged - the factory stops, to have the "longer" stock would be too expensive), OK airplane manufacturing is not car mass production, but the cash flow involved is similar, so.....
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 17, 2014 23:15:34 GMT 1
Spirit delivered 34 A380 shipsets last year, up from 24 in 2012. I would expect a corresponding production increase, those parts should be made at the right time for delivery, not on stock. Yes, production is being increased to 30 in 2014 from 25 10 2013, and that pace is to be sustained next year. 2013 was a special catch-up year, in 2014 I expect 30 shipsets deliveries from Spirit, after 34 in 2013.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Feb 19, 2014 21:02:49 GMT 1
I would expect a corresponding production increase, those parts should be made at the right time for delivery, not on stock. Yes, production is being increased to 30 in 2014 from 25 10 2013, and that pace is to be sustained next year. 2013 was a special catch-up year, in 2014 I expect 30 shipsets deliveries from Spirit, after 34 in 2013. May be, but 2012 30 frames were delivered and I assume 25 sets used for frames to be delivered in 2013. In 2013 25 frames were delivered and max 30 sets used for frames for delivery in 2014. There is no reasonable explanation for a production speed of 34 in 2013, there was no shortage of sets, delays were because of wing fix. The only reasonable explanation is a anticipated production increase in the number of A380 delivered per year.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 19, 2014 23:33:37 GMT 1
There is no reasonable explanation for a production speed of 34 in 2013, there was no shortage of sets, delays were because of wing fix. The only reasonable explanation is a anticipated production increase in the number of A380 delivered per year. Oh yes, there is an explanation : the necessity to catch up on the 2012 production shortage ! As you know, every year fewer than ten of the frames convoyed to TLS are scheduled for delivery the same year, the others (more than two thirds of the total) are for delivery the next year. In 2013, the TLS factory was forced to slow production because the reduced number of frames convoyed in 2012 had left it understocked. The increased number of convoys in 2013 has allowed Airbus to replenish the stock of frames. At the end of 2013, there were, I think, 22 frames in TLS + HFW (or was it 23 ?). With 8 2014 convoys carrying frames scheduled for delivery this year, we are meeting Airbus' 2014 guidance of 30 deliveries. Without the necessity to catch up, if the pace of production stabilises at 30, we can expect 30 convoys per year.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Feb 20, 2014 22:00:58 GMT 1
There is no reasonable explanation for a production speed of 34 in 2013, there was no shortage of sets, delays were because of wing fix. The only reasonable explanation is a anticipated production increase in the number of A380 delivered per year. Oh yes, there is an explanation : the necessity to catch up on the 2012 production shortage ! As you know, every year fewer than ten of the frames convoyed to TLS are scheduled for delivery the same year, the others (more than two thirds of the total) are for delivery the next year. In 2013, the TLS factory was forced to slow production because the reduced number of frames convoyed in 2012 had left it understocked. The increased number of convoys in 2013 has allowed Airbus to replenish the stock of frames. At the end of 2013, there were, I think, 22 frames in TLS + HFW (or was it 23 ?). With 8 2014 convoys carrying frames scheduled for delivery this year, we are meeting Airbus' 2014 guidance of 30 deliveries. Without the necessity to catch up, if the pace of production stabilises at 30, we can expect 30 convoys per year. Very nice speech, still no reason to produce 34 sets of something in a given year that is used one set on each frame. In 2013 30 frames were convoyed, 30 sets were used, 34 produced so you end the year with an overstock of at least 4 sets. If there were too few sets produced in 2012, and they needed only 25 that year, than some frames would have been standing unfinished around without a set to finish them. Were would have been the shortage? No, a higher number of sets produced points to the need for more sets sometimes in the future.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Feb 20, 2014 22:42:20 GMT 1
Very nice speech, still no reason to produce 34 sets of something in a given year that is used one set on each frame. In 2013 30 frames were convoyed, 30 sets were used, 34 produced so you end the year with an overstock of at least 4 sets. If there were too few sets produced in 2012, and they needed only 25 that year, than some frames would have been standing unfinished around without a set to finish them. Were would have been the shortage? No, a higher number of sets produced points to the need for more sets sometimes in the future. Yeah, that is exactly the same I was trying to say. Does somebody know how long before the convoy are the shipset needed ? That will probably answer our questions. AB has right now exactly 200 unfilled orders (180 according to January xls sheet + 20 AMEDEO) - i.e. with 30 frames/year almost until the end of 2020 if they do not sell a single one ! And I am sure they will sell some. AB now knows that the whole 380 project is in black numbers, so "more" can come. More can mean upgrades..... I do believe they MUST increase the production rate. As simple as that. Also if they want to "compete" with 777x they must be able to offer the product in time (OK the question is if 777x is a competition to 380, but I do believe we can consider it that it is). Waiting over 7 years in this situation can be toooooo much.
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Post by Flying Dutchman on Feb 21, 2014 14:30:27 GMT 1
It also depends on when the airlines wants their order
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