s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Feb 21, 2014 15:53:59 GMT 1
It also depends on when the airlines wants their order Sure - there are two sides. Manufacturer must be able to deliver and customer able to take it. But theoretically and speculatively if there is a customer who wants a A380 in 2016 he has probably no chance. He might get from AB only A330 and that is about it. He has better chance with BO - he could probably get 748 and 777 maybe even some 737 ? I have a feeli <ng that the wait list is starting to be way too long. I am sure the airlines are not too happy about it, and I do believe that even the OEMs start to consider it's length with caution.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 21, 2014 16:56:00 GMT 1
Hmm ... three months ago, the problem was a shrinking backlog. Some 2015 slots were for sale and could not be sold, and Airbus was on the brink of reducing the rate of production ...
What's new ? Emirate's order is excellent news for the future, but it changes nothing in yearly deliveries to EK, so this order leaves A380 production in the same situation as before. Only Amedeo's order for 20 frames brings some "short term" (2016 -->) relief to production planners.
Does the situation warrant a rate increase ? In my opinion, no, a higher rate might not be sustainable, but there is no more risk of having to ramp production down.
Airbus has decided to leave the pace of production unchanged. I think it is the right decision unless new orders come in, which of course we all hope is going to happen.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Feb 21, 2014 21:25:31 GMT 1
Hmm ... three months ago, the problem was a shrinking backlog. Some 2015 slots were for sale and could not be sold, and Airbus was on the brink of reducing the rate of production ... What's new ? Emirate's order is excellent news for the future, but it changes nothing in yearly deliveries to EK, so this order leaves A380 production in the same situation as before. Only Amedeo's order for 20 frames brings some "short term" (2016 -->) relief to production planners. Does the situation warrant a rate increase ? In my opinion, no, a higher rate might not be sustainable, but there is no more risk of having to ramp production down. Airbus has decided to leave the pace of production unchanged. I think it is the right decision unless new orders come in, which of course we all hope is going to happen. We do not know if the 50 frames order by EK leads to faster delivery rates. But we have some indications. Somewhere, I am too lazy to look it up now, it was stated, that the first 25 of the new order should be delivered by Q1 2018. That means together 70 frames to be delivered by that date. That means at 17 Qs 4.1 frame per Q that means about 16.5 frames per year on average including this year for EK only. Are you so sure about the no production increase? I assume the 2015 hole is gone and I would not be astonished to see a slight production increase perhaps to 33 frames a year for 2016, 2017, with a delivery rate to EK at 13 this year, 15 2015 and 17 per year after that, and that will still leave 9 for Q1 of 2018.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Feb 21, 2014 21:34:56 GMT 1
Thank you mjoelnir - your reasoning is going exactly the same road as mine - simply it seems almost impossible to fill all the orders in the book as declared with current speed.
And let's hope more frames are going to be sold.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 21, 2014 23:46:53 GMT 1
I remember Bregier stating in Airbus' annual press conference that the pace of A380 production would remain unchanged in the forthcoming years. I am very pleased that 30 frames a year now seems sustainable.
We must not be fooled by the 'six years' backlog, as these orders are to be executed on a much longer timeframe. Reality is that while EK takes about 13 a year, many other customers are not exactly crying to receive A380s. It is not so easy, every year, to list airlines actually accepting to take delivery of a total 17 more frames. Nobody has clarified the 2015 slots issue so far.
So, I am convinced that production still remains constrained by tepid demand. One or two more customers might however be enough to turn the tables. I also hope Amedeo's order brings new users - that's what's needed !
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Feb 22, 2014 10:38:41 GMT 1
I remember Bregier stating in Airbus' annual press conference that the pace of A380 production would remain unchanged in the forthcoming years. I am very pleased that 30 frames a year now seems sustainable. We must not be fooled by the 'six years' backlog, as these orders are to be executed on a much longer timeframe. Reality is that while EK takes about 13 a year, many other customers are not exactly crying to receive A380s. It is not so easy, every year, to list airlines actually accepting to take delivery of a total 17 more frames. Nobody has clarified the 2015 slots issue so far. So, I am convinced that production still remains constrained by tepid demand. One or two more customers might however be enough to turn the tables. I also hope Amedeo's order brings new users - that's what's needed ! That is very nice and conservative, cautious and so on. But Emirates seems to want its frames fast, Quote: "Its order for 50 additional A380 aircraft today brings Emirates’ total A380 order book to 101 aircraft, worth US$ 45 billion. A combination of two and three-class cabin configuration, the first 25 of these latest A380 aircraft orders are scheduled to be delivered before the first quarter of 2018." www.theemiratesgroup.com/english/news-events/news-releases/news-details.aspx?article=1443077&offset=4So if the production will be 2014 to 2017 30 Frames that are 120 frames, add first quarter of 2018 lets say 127 frames. The Outstanding old Emirates order is 46 planes at the start of 2014, including MSN141, 25 more frames from the new order, that makes 71 frames until Q1 2018. That leaves 127 -71 = 56 Frames for everybody else during that period. We have to see increased delivery rates for Emirates. 4 times 13 gives only 52 frames until the end of 2017, so Airbus would have to deliver 15 frames in the first quarter of 2018. So IMO Airbus has to increase deliveries to Emirates above the 13 a year and that is why I thing the 2015 hole is gone, that is why I think we will see 15 for Emirates in 2015 and than 17+ for Emirates from 2016. That means 2014 17 frames for everybody else, 2015 15 frames for everybody else and from 2016 12 to 13 frames for everybody else. The first deliveries for Amedeo order commences in 2016. Singapore gets its 5 frames add on order delivered starting in 2017. So tell me how do you think Airbus will do it?
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Feb 22, 2014 17:45:35 GMT 1
I do believe they MUST increase the production rate. As simple as that. Once more - nice you came to the same conclusion as I did 2 days ago Fabien380 wrote elsewhere: One convoy cancelled for this year (Convoy 2013/26), we will have only 33 convoys in 2013. www.igg.fr/IMG/pdf/igg_planning_2013_dir_sud-ouest_11_sept_2013.pdf+ we have 14 convoys until end of MAY !!!! So already in 2014 more that 30 frames / year. i.e. each convoy is one frame !!!
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Post by FabienA380 on Feb 22, 2014 18:10:30 GMT 1
I think in fact that to match Airbus' 2014-deliveries' indications, only convoys started until the end of March (2014) will have frames deliverable this year (only 4 frames left to reach the goal set by Airbus = 30). They are MSN165 MSN168 and MSN169 for EK, and MSN166 for EY. Fabien
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Feb 22, 2014 19:16:35 GMT 1
Here we are in complete agreement. Please let me repeat some known numbers: on 1.1.2014 there were 22 frames in AB facilities. The oldest Conv.#12 (MSN137 QR1) - convoyed in April. All the previous Convoys are out. Today there is 14 in SXW, 11 in TLS - i.e. 25 total. 2 frames delivered (Conv.#13+14) 5 Convoys Arrived. We do expect to see probably 32-34 Convoys ? (Fabien what is your estimate ?) It seems from Convoy to delivery is 9 month. According to this calculation You are Fabien somewhere 1 frame off - if those 4 frames mentioned would be delivered + ALL those in AB facilities now + 2 delivered until now - it would be 31/ 2014 - which seems real - it is in accordance with planed convoys and according to speed we see last few month. i.e. if there is 30 deliveries + 33 convoys in 1.1.2015 in AB facilities should be 25 frames i.e. 3 more than last year !!! We were discussing not major increase in production just a slight one, and we already see it.
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Post by FabienA380 on Feb 22, 2014 20:47:36 GMT 1
It seems that we would only have 30 convoys this year, hopefully all of them carrying a full frame. The difference of 1 frame is MSN160, it shouldn't be planned for 2014 but 2015... I don't know why Airbus now keeps convoying frames that aren't for delivery too soon (Example: MSN145 as well)... So 25 in Airbus facilities minus MSN160 plus the 4 frames still to convoy this year, plus 2 already delivered, all equal 30, that's the goal set by Airbus. I think what we are discussing in fact is if the production is going to increase, but according to Airbus the few next years would see 30 deliveries. An ancient plan for Emirates was to receive the 90th A380 in November-2017, and this was (at my surprise!) rementioned lately by Tim Clarks, soon after the last order or 50. Also here a380.boards.net/post/16032/thread I think what was mentioning by Mr. Clarks as well, was that from December-2017 to December-2018 Emirates would receive 25. Hence, 13 frames for Emirates in 2014 (leaving lots for other airlines), and an average of 12 per year in 2015, 2016 and 2017 (to reach #90 in November-2017) would leave plenty of space for all other airlines. What we have to keep in mind I guess, it what Airbus is mentioning, as opposed to what The Press is assuming from other sources,... (Emirates receiving that many per year, until that year,...). I think our conversation turns about this. Fabien
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