Taliesin
Final Assembly Line stage 1
In Thrust we trust
Posts: 228
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Post by Taliesin on Nov 9, 2013 12:37:44 GMT 1
I am still amazed that LH is ready to operate a unique mix of A380s/747-8s/777-9s ... In my opinion, LH is going to replace their 747-8I's with 777-9X's when they receive them. By the time the 777-9X shows up, LH's 747-8I's are going to be almost 10 years old. Even today, the 747-8I is not a very competitive airplane, give it 10 years and it's ready for replacement.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Nov 9, 2013 14:22:09 GMT 1
I am still amazed that LH is ready to operate a unique mix of A380s/747-8s/777-9s ... In my opinion, LH is going to replace their 747-8I's with 777-9X's when they receive them. By the time the 777-9X shows up, LH's 747-8I's are going to be almost 10 years old. Even today, the 747-8I is not a very competitive airplane, give it 10 years and it's ready for replacement. That would be logical, except that so far LH has been using its aircraft much longer (20 years or more), perhaps because they have their own in-house MRO operation. Boeing may well have paid a price to make the 779 part of LH's fleet (for instance, a few 748 order cancellations, or a buyback agreement, or a combination of both). Let's remember that Airbus had to agree to 3 A380 cancellations to get the A359 order. This was not disclosed until the order was firmed, so any agreement between LH and Boeing linked to the 779 order would likely not be disclosed before the latter is in force.
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someone
in service - 1 year
Posts: 3,232
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Post by someone on Nov 9, 2013 14:32:10 GMT 1
It is way to early to tell and very much dependent on Lufthansa's growth rates the next 10 years. Even one a percertage up or down on the annual average growth will highly effect the needed fleet size for an airline 5-10 years ahead. It has always been hard to predict, especially the future
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Taliesin
Final Assembly Line stage 1
In Thrust we trust
Posts: 228
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Post by Taliesin on Nov 9, 2013 14:41:59 GMT 1
In my opinion, LH is going to replace their 747-8I's with 777-9X's when they receive them. By the time the 777-9X shows up, LH's 747-8I's are going to be almost 10 years old. Even today, the 747-8I is not a very competitive airplane, give it 10 years and it's ready for replacement. That would be logical, except that so far LH has been using its aircraft much longer (20 years or more), perhaps because they have their own in-house MRO operation. Not universally true, LH got rid of their A332's inside of 4 years. I think 10-12 years is going to be plenty of life for an aircraft that otherwise sold very poorly.
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Post by peter on Nov 9, 2013 14:45:44 GMT 1
It is way to early to tell and very much dependent on Lufthansa's growth rates the next 10 years. Even one a percertage up or down on the annual average growth will highly effect the needed fleet size for an airline 5-10 years ahead. It has always been hard to predict, especially the future Don't forget, Lufthansa wholy ownes 8 other airlines and partly ownes 5 more. Seems a nice opportunity to "stash" surplus aircraft
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