if I bet EK, would it be considered the rest of the MSN219 or the beginning of the MSN220? If this guess would count as MSN219, then, I guess, I'd get no points - they were awarded for guessing right the last convoy, right?
As I stepped in to evaluate the betting game - since Fabien gave up..... and he did agree for me to continue.
There are two possibilities - to evaluate last two convoys: in #27 - only rear - we had two parties - people who were still betting seriously and *others* betting on improbable MSNs (grisu17, Baroque, philidor, behappy, nicolele) in #28 most people just betted the obvious - rest of MSN219
I do believe that the most logical step is to forget those two last not complete convoys. How ever we would consider the bets - the result on first places would be almost the same - AOIspotter ignored those so he would move back, but....
So I do believe the correct attitude is to consider the results in #26 as 2015 final ones.
Also my previous and current estimate that to count points makes no sense - as seen the results are the same for simple amount of correct bets, I will come back to the rules prior 2015. We have seen that to consider what is in line and is not was not clear and the rule used VERY synthetic and hardly a logical one - at least to my logic. I did not try to discuss it than since I did thought than it was a nonsense.
One more change to Fabien's way - he made the results according to the time when the bet was placed. I did asked in the past how, but until today I still do not get it. I was trying to play with it during 2015 adjudication (in xls) but could not understand the way he has done it - probably since I am not smart enough to understand it - as you have seen the results (same amount of correct bets) are sorted by alphabet in 2016 , as I do believe it is not important when the bet is placed - provided it is before the MSN is known.
Last Edit: Jun 20, 2016 1:24:36 GMT 1 by FabienA380