sciing
in service - 1 year
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Posts: 2,502
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Post by sciing on Apr 29, 2016 8:59:04 GMT 1
Sorry, I must really miss the point why you can use up to date delivery count to extrapolate the year. As loading and production time are not stable you must not use it. So I wonder why we start the disscussion a 2nd? You need to quote what has been delivered already this year to try and guess / extrapolate the rest of the years deliveries ? If we get two more this month, then 4 in May and 5 in June, then 6 a month from July thru Dec we get to about 51 ? I still hope for 52 though Airbus delivered 17 A330 in a month at a stable rate, so this figure says nothing. There is no limit for monthly delivery. They can deliver 20 each in November and in december. What we can do just estimate, discuss, speculate how long it takes from S50 entry to delivery. And than it is easy: 12 months-27 deliveries, 10 month-37 deliveries Each months less means around 5 more deliveries. The median of the delivered one is at the moment at 350 days. The best 260 days, the last standard ones (SQ for example) were around 310. So if there is no improvement in speed, we will just see around 35. For 50 it must come down to 7-8 months (all frames which are loaded now) which was not demonstrated so far. This is how you can make the extrapolation and you see there is nowhere used the actuall delivery rate ;-) You can pessimistic, you can be optimistic, but please use figures which makes sense.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Apr 29, 2016 9:13:08 GMT 1
You need to quote what has been delivered already this year to try and guess / extrapolate the rest of the years deliveries ? If we get two more this month, then 4 in May and 5 in June, then 6 a month from July thru Dec we get to about 51 ? I still hope for 52 though Airbus delivered 17 A330 in a month at a stable rate, so this figure says nothing. There is no limit for monthly delivery. They can deliver 20 each in November and in december. What we can do just estimate, discuss, speculate how long it takes from S50 entry to delivery. And than it is easy: 12 months-27 deliveries, 10 month-37 deliveries Each months less means around 5 more deliveries. The median of the delivered one is at the moment at 350 days. The best 260 days, the last standard ones (SQ for example) were around 310. So if there is no improvement in speed, we will just see around 35. For 50 it must come down to 7-8 months (all frames which are loaded now) which was not demonstrated so far. This is how you can make the extrapolation and you see there is nowhere used the actuall delivery rate ;-) You can pessimistic, you can be optimistic, but please use figures which makes sense. Do not accuse others of not making sense, perhaps you make little sense. You have your way of looking at things, I have my way. I manufacture machines myself, it makes a big difference why frames are late. Number of days from entering FAL to delivery have no real meaning, if the delay is not the process, but rather late delivery of needed parts. We know that Finnair frames were and are waiting for toilets, Cathay frames waiting for seats. In the moment there are a lot of frames standing around in TLS waiting. There are fewer frames in rework, there seem to be one of the tents not in use at this time. When seats and toilets arrive we can see a flow of deliveries.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Apr 29, 2016 11:43:35 GMT 1
Delivery of OH-LWEm MSN23, #5 for Finnair. The second frame delivered this April.
So we have this year up to now:
January 0 February 1 March 3 April 2
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Apr 29, 2016 11:45:17 GMT 1
It was also the last delivery for April.
Currently four deliveries are planned for May: MSN 21 (QR), MSN 29 (CX), MSN 31 (SQ) and MSN 35 (JJ), averaging 3 deliveries per month since March (MSN 21 was supposed to be delivered in April).
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Apr 29, 2016 11:56:40 GMT 1
It was also the last delivery for April. Currently four deliveries are planned for May: MSN 21 (QR), MSN 29 (CX), MSN 31 (SQ) and MSN 35 (JJ), averaging 3 deliveries per month since March (MSN 21 was supposed to be delivered in April). We seem to have a go slow now on Qatar birds. 1 in cabin test flights and 2 waiting for test flights.
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Apr 29, 2016 11:58:01 GMT 1
Indeed, MSN 25 has been overtaken by MSN 31 and 35. Not sure what's going on.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Apr 29, 2016 13:17:27 GMT 1
Indeed, MSN 25 has been overtaken by MSN 31 and 35. Not sure what's going on. Qatar does not take the A320neo, deferred A380 and the A350 are going out slower than planed. There is perhaps a good reason in each case, but on the other side it could be Qatar just slowing acceptance of frames because of financial strain, or slower growth than projected.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on May 2, 2016 15:53:24 GMT 1
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on May 9, 2016 22:59:10 GMT 1
From one of romain's latest posts, we learn that MSN 70 'apparently' is in station 50. a380.boards.net/thread/1353/a350-900-msn70-cxThis small piece of information is extremely important in my opinion. Airbus' 2016 A350 delivery guidance is 50. There are 5 test aircraft, 1 A350 was delivered in 2014 and 14 more in 2015, so MSN 70 is the theoretical 50th 2016 delivery. It follows that if Airbus manages to deliver MSN 70 this year, then it is assured of meeting or beating its delivery guidance. MSN 70 being in station 50 before mid-May, I believe that she should easily be delivered this year, and that we should expect Airbus to beat its own forecast. EDIT : I wonder whether the official target (50) was in part set so that all frames 'before MSN 71, the first A350-1000' are being delivered this year.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on May 9, 2016 23:17:07 GMT 1
I think they will need to deliver up to MSN 73 or 74 to reach the 50 target. MSN63 is already behind MSN70.
Geoff
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