XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Dec 4, 2017 15:42:15 GMT 1
direct purchase for CCA and forget the certification this year... Air China (CCA) aircraft are MSN 167 and 178, we were actually talking about MSN 60/98/112 that are on lease. Hence I can see a repeat of MSN 52/55 in December 2016.
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Dec 4, 2017 15:43:54 GMT 1
Yet the lessor agreed to accept MSN 52 and 55. I doubt there was any certification issue in the case you refer to. In general, lack of aircraft certification must be at least a suspensive clause, if not a cancellation clause. In this case, however, the aircraft is certified by EASA and FAA, but not by the operator's national authority (China's CAAC). Does this situation trigger a suspensive clause ... Or not ? Given the amount of work Airbus has done on MSN 60/98/112 (cabin furnishing and paint), one would expect delivery to happen shortly. Otherwise Airbus would have focussend on the other 2017 deliveries.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Dec 4, 2017 15:50:56 GMT 1
Given the amount of work Airbus has done on MSN 60/98/112 (cabin furnishing and paint), one would expect delivery to happen shortly. Otherwise Airbus would have focussend on the other 2017 deliveries. Airbus may know more than we do about the Chinese certification timeline. I hope the certificate is granted soon.
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Post by ff on Dec 4, 2017 17:09:24 GMT 1
Yes, I reckon 20+ for an annual total of more than 80. Geoff The year end target of 80 is still possible to reach, but I believe that will heavily depending on whether lease companies willing to accept a few frames that knowing they won't leave TLS very soon. As I said before, it all depends on whether the lease companies willing to accept these frames.
If the lease companies can negotiate a deferred payment scheme (until CAAC certification been obtained, and that shouldn't be too long now, with Air China now backing A350), then they are very likely to accept these frames. In that way, it's a win-win situation, Airbus achieves the delivery target, and the lease companies don't have to pay the full amount.
I am highly suspect they've done that with MSN52 & MSN55, I simply can't see lease companies paying the full amount for two frames sitting at TLS over a year. With their large orders, these large lease companies have very strong negotiation power than a normal airline.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Dec 5, 2017 17:55:06 GMT 1
The year end target of 80 is still possible to reach, but I believe that will heavily depending on whether lease companies willing to accept a few frames that knowing they won't leave TLS very soon. As I said before, it all depends on whether the lease companies willing to accept these frames.
If the lease companies can negotiate a deferred payment scheme (until CAAC certification been obtained, and that shouldn't be too long now, with Air China now backing A350), then they are very likely to accept these frames. In that way, it's a win-win situation, Airbus achieves the delivery target, and the lease companies don't have to pay the full amount.
I am highly suspect they've done that with MSN52 & MSN55, I simply can't see lease companies paying the full amount for two frames sitting at TLS over a year. With their large orders, these large lease companies have very strong negotiation power than a normal airline.
I'm sorry, that's not how it works. Lessors enjoy high rates of discount allowing them to turn a profit on lease contracts. The only reason manufacturers accept such highly-discounted orders from lessors is that these companies assume the risk of a breach of contract by the operator. When an operator defaults at a late stage (= when the aircraft has been built), then the lessor must take delivery or face severe penalties. There may be some degree of negociation, especially when interiors and paint have been left unfinished, possibly allowing the lessor to retain part of the price until completion. In a purchase contract, however, the manufacturer undertakes to deliver to the buyer a fully certified aircraft. That's why, depending on contract wording (is the contract referring to EASA / FAA certification, or also to certification in the operator's contry ?) the missing Chinese certification may create a different legal situation.
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Dec 5, 2017 20:05:44 GMT 1
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Dec 15, 2017 0:25:45 GMT 1
Quite a few updates on this sheet ; sites.google.com/site/a350xwbproduction/production-listWith some frames on the flightline shown for 2018 delivery the situation is becoming clearer. Looks like around 12 deliveries/ transfers of ownership this month , with some to lessors. Personally I’m pleased to see several frames scheduled for early 2018 as a New Year delivery slump is not an efficient way for Airbus to operate. Geoff
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Dec 15, 2017 10:26:47 GMT 1
I think we will not see the same drop in deliveries in January like this year. It depends of course also on how many get delivered before year end, but enough further frames seem to arrive at the flightline.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Dec 20, 2017 21:58:02 GMT 1
I would guess not MSN174. As MSN179 had its first flight, it might be possible but unlikely.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Dec 21, 2017 0:09:12 GMT 1
Quick check of current status looks like up to 11 deliveries this month.
3 so far
MSN 175 next
Others likely
60 ( to AerCap ), 88, 132, 165, 170, 173 and 176.
This would make 80 for the year if all these get ‘delivered’.
Geoff
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