philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Oct 14, 2019 9:33:21 GMT 1
I personally thing, that talk about a reengined 767 freighter shows that there will be no 787F and talk about a reengined 767 pax frame shows that the NMA project is in trouble. This is the first thought that comes to one's minds, but in my opinion there are two imoortant caveats. 1 - as the NMA would be a poor freighter, that aircraft and a new 767 freighter might be part of the same plan. 2 - while most ambitious projects (778, NMA, new 787 versions) may be put on the back burner right now, they may be back later, when Boeing's finances are less strained. We already suspected that the NMA, if launched now, would not be on the market in 2025 as planned, even if powered by a comparatively simple derivative of an existing engine, whereas the 787 still has a large backlog possibly suggesting to delay the launch of a freighter version. Moreover, a re-engined 767 freighter is only marketing talk for now, the future is uncertain. |
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Oct 14, 2019 13:42:48 GMT 1
My main point would be, what kind of frame does Boeing really need next.
My answer would be an upsized replacement for the 737 and that fast. the 737 has been the main money maker at Boeing, more than 50% of the turnover at Boeing Commercial. All talk about the militäry side would safe them, is also nonsense. About 70 % of the revenue comes from the commercial side about 30% the rest.
Boeing has no time for playing around with a MNA or the niche 777-8 or even new 787 versions. They have to think about their bread and butter.
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Post by kevin5345179 on Oct 21, 2019 17:09:27 GMT 1
feels like died to me ...
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Post by kevin5345179 on Oct 23, 2019 19:47:50 GMT 1
"project of interests" lol
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on Oct 23, 2019 19:58:51 GMT 1
"project of interests" lol They cannot walk back on it completely right away. But once again, I think Leehamnews does a good job of decrypting market intelligence when they said that NMA is pushed back or may never happen. |
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Post by kevin5345179 on Oct 23, 2019 20:43:28 GMT 1
"project of interests" lol They cannot walk back on it completely right away. But once again, I think Leehamnews does a good job of decrypting market intelligence when they said that NMA is pushed back or may never happen. Scott also feels like Boeing should push the program launch. Regardless, I think Boeing can't do a thing until board is certain about whether CEO stays. Given blessing from board is required for any program launch and Mulienburg seems to be now "isolated" from the remaining, I don't think he can get a buy off for any big decision at this point. |
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Post by airboche on Oct 24, 2019 8:47:21 GMT 1
Muilenburg's job got split now. Some Blackrock investor's rep took over the second part. This doesn't look like investors pumping in more money for some NMA while the company bleeds because of the MAX crisis. This is why I don't see NMA happening.
Boeing would still need to do it sooner than later. Plus a future single aisle. Otherwise the A321neo will eat their lunch.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Oct 27, 2019 0:33:13 GMT 1
This is why I don't see NMA happening. Boeing would still need to do it sooner than later. Plus a future single aisle. Otherwise the A321neo will eat their lunch. The main questions have always been : can we contain the costs enough to sell this aircraft, with a good margin, at a price that the market will accept ? How many aircraft can we expect to sell ? Will there be a 787 cannibalisation ? If there were easy answers to these questions, the programme would be launched immediately. The answers, however, are probably difficult, while in the present circumstances everybody is cautious. So, the decision is deferred again. |
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Post by airboche on Oct 27, 2019 9:29:40 GMT 1
The 787 seems to be too expensive/complex to be built for some more basic trunk route version even at high production rates and after the teething troubles are gone. So they'd need something else, custom made for the US and for Asia. High capacity intermediate range. Something above the A321neo, some new 767 - made of CFRP maybe using existing 787 and 777X machinery instead of foreign suppliers?
Now with the MAX troubles they might just have moved the NMA funds to some "secret" 737 follow on project or they just burned the entire budget for the MAX?
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Oct 27, 2019 12:29:10 GMT 1
The 787 seems to be too expensive/complex to be built for some more basic trunk route version even at high production rates and after the teething troubles are gone. So they'd need something else, custom made for the US and for Asia. High capacity intermediate range. Something above the A321neo, some new 767 - made of CFRP maybe using existing 787 and 777X machinery instead of foreign suppliers? Now with the MAX troubles they might just have moved the NMA funds to some "secret" 737 follow on project or they just burned the entire budget for the MAX? Regarding cash, Boeing is burning through it fast. They raised 10 billions USD through loans this year and they are gone. Regarding profit, I assume they are deferring production cost on the 737MAX without there being talk about it. Boeing will not be finished shedding cash, so yes, I think they do not have the means to run an expensive development program as it is. I think the huge amount of cash spent on stock buy backs, down to having zero equity, is coming home to roost. |
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