kronus
in service - 1 year
Posts: 3,187
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Post by kronus on Mar 5, 2018 10:28:07 GMT 1
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Mar 5, 2018 11:06:35 GMT 1
Many airlines (especially those with a 767 fleet) seem to be pushing Boeing to launch this aircraft. I doubt however they'll be any softer on purchase prices !
What Boeing needs is a significant market beyond 767 replacement. The recent sale of many 787 does not help.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Mar 5, 2018 17:48:04 GMT 1
Many airlines (especially those with a 767 fleet) seem to be pushing Boeing to launch this aircraft. I doubt however they'll be any softer on purchase prices ! What Boeing needs is a significant market beyond 767 replacement. The recent sale of many 787 does not help. Before (if) the 797 will fly with customers all/most the 767 are removed and replaced by 787/330/321 The time simply does not overlap. The 797 can not have EIS before 2022 and the newest nonCARGO 767 is going to be over 20 years (not considering the exceptions - JAL, ANA, LATAM, AZAL)
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Post by bmw801 on Mar 5, 2018 23:35:27 GMT 1
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on Mar 6, 2018 4:02:39 GMT 1
The thing I see with the market demand for the NMA is that it is dependent on how well the single aisle aircraft of the mid-next decade perform. If engine makers, through whatever the means, get a 10% improvement in fuel efficiency over today's neo/max engines on them ( see here), it would really erode into the NMA's market prospects. The longer Boeing waits on this, the smaller the market becomes, and perhaps bigger the 'moonshot' level investment to put some distance between it and those single aisles in order to convince airlines to use a separate unique purposed aircraft in their fleet.
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Post by airboche on Mar 6, 2018 9:13:39 GMT 1
How good would it need to be? It would need to match or beat big A321neo-variants including upcoming bigger ones.
1. Boeing could try to build some cheap 767 MAX. "Fast and dirty", a tanker with seats. Cheap and available but only marketable with aggressive pricing. Pro: available early.
2. Build a new program from scratch. Could easily creep to become a moonshot and too expensive to sell. Could become another "unwanted" midsize family like 767/757.
3. Wait for the 737-follow on family and bring out one member early. This must be done absolutely right it will be expensive and there is no room for error. And this will need future engines.
4. Restart something like a 787-3. Maybe with a better wing? Seems to be too costly to build and sell vs. A321neos.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Mar 6, 2018 11:38:16 GMT 1
So, Leeham provides us with a major piece of information : the aircraft would be designed for a seven-abreast configuration. This requires a lot of confidence in the design : narrowbodies have one aisle for six seats per rank, while the 797 would have two aisles for only one more seat per rank. Thus configured, the aircraft would be extremely passenger-friendly, but it would be far from optimised in terms of CASM/CASK. It would also have the same constraints as the 767 in freight operations.
I cannot help having some doubts, as long as we don't know the proposed aircraft cross-section. Could it be a 'seven-and-a-half-abreast' aircraft, aka as an eight-abreast one in real life ? We all remember that the 787 was initially touted as an eight-abreast aircraft, and we know what happened ...
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Post by airboche on Mar 6, 2018 12:38:37 GMT 1
A wide body fuselage only makes sense if it can load pairs of LD3s in the belly. So 7 abreast might happen, 8 abreast will be possible and that makes it some big baby that needs to be made of CFRP (=expensive) to stay light enough.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Mar 6, 2018 17:05:56 GMT 1
A wide body fuselage only makes sense if it can load pairs of LD3s in the belly That is exactly how the A330 cross-section was determined, but Boeing is not doing an A330 copy. The 767 uses a different (smaller) size of containers, widespread in North America, and is still sold as a freighter. There is wild speculation that Boeing may be going for an oval fuselage, deliberately reducing cargo room as well as drag.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Mar 8, 2018 17:52:54 GMT 1
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