philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
|
Post by philidor on May 20, 2014 13:23:30 GMT 1
Yet, Airbus recently reiterated its 2014 guidance (30 A380s)...
|
|
|
|
Post by FabienA380 on May 20, 2014 15:19:57 GMT 1
There should also be just 30 convoys this year, hopefully all of the remaining ones would carry a complete frame  |
|
mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
|
Post by mjoelnir on May 20, 2014 16:41:32 GMT 1
Yet, Airbus recently reiterated its 2014 guidance (30 A380s)... Again, 30 frames production does not mean 30 frames delivered. There is 2013 with 29 frames convoyed, but 25 frames delivered. 2012 with fewer than 30 frames convoyed, but 30 frames delivered. So production can run at 30 frames in 2014, with 30 frames convoyed, but delivered frames can be more or less than 30 frames at the same time. I believe in 32 frames delivered this year, but 30 produced and convoyed. |
|
XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
|
Post by XWB on May 20, 2014 16:45:01 GMT 1
I believe Fabrice was targeting 30 deliveries in 2014 and 2015.
|
|
philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
|
Post by philidor on May 20, 2014 23:18:01 GMT 1
Airbus might indeed have deliberately decided to exceed its own guidance. The main point in favour of this supposition is that if Airbus only delivers the 30 first frames conveyed to XFW, then EK will receive eleven frames only in 2014, while the 31st and 32nd are other EK frames. This hints at mjoelnir possibly being right.
|
|
|
|
Post by FabienA380 on May 21, 2014 1:16:50 GMT 1
Airbus might indeed have deliberately decided to exceed its own guidance. The main point in favour of this supposition is that if Airbus only delivers the 30 first frames conveyed to XFW, EK will receive eleven frames only in 2014, while the 31st and 32nd are other EK frames. This hints at mjoelnir possibly being right. I wouldn't agree too much (again  ), delivery of MSN160(QR) and MSN167(BC) this year is still purely an assumption and entirely goes against Airbus current predictions ("production of 30 aircraft this year" plus "delivery of 30 aircraft this year")... If MSN169(last EK for this year) was convoyed way later than it should be to be deliverable this year, this could have been a clear announcement that all frames convoyed earlier should do it for this year, but this is not the case, MSN169 is still much on course for a delivery later this year...... Also, there could be other situations where EK still gets 13 and MSN160-delivered this year, and still deliveries topping up at 30, with delivery of other carriers/frames later on, next year... (Skymark with MSN162andMSN167 for example, who hasn't yet announced officially any route, where as Etihad already officially announced their routes even though they are expected to take delivery after Skymark...)... |
|
s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959 
|
Post by s543 on May 21, 2014 8:51:32 GMT 1
It is too early to guess, there is a lot of possibilities... We see that physically it would be possible to make more deliveries, but  ? |
|
mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
|
Post by mjoelnir on May 21, 2014 9:00:13 GMT 1
Airbus might indeed have deliberately decided to exceed its own guidance. The main point in favour of this supposition is that if Airbus only delivers the 30 first frames conveyed to XFW, EK will receive eleven frames only in 2014, while the 31st and 32nd are other EK frames. This hints at mjoelnir possibly being right. I wouldn't agree too much (again ), delivery of MSN160(QR) and MSN167(BC) this year is still purely an assumption and entirely goes against Airbus current predictions ("production of 30 aircraft this year" plus "delivery of 30 aircraft this year")... If MSN169(last EK for this year) was convoyed way later than it should be to be deliverable this year, this could have been a clear announcement that all frames convoyed earlier should do it for this year, but this is not the case, MSN169 is still much on course for a delivery later this year...... Also, there could be other situations where EK still gets 13 and MSN160-delivered this year, and still deliveries topping up at 30, with delivery of other carriers/frames later on, next year... (Skymark with MSN162andMSN167 for example, who hasn't yet announced officially any route, where as Etihad already officially announced their routes even though they are expected to take delivery after Skymark...)... Just show me a year, were production, or better convoys, matched the number of deliveries. |
|
mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
|
Post by mjoelnir on May 21, 2014 9:02:01 GMT 1
It is too early to guess, there is a lot of possibilities... We see that physically it would be possible to make more deliveries, but ? of course we do not know, but speculating and guessing is most of the fun. |
|
philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
|
Post by philidor on May 21, 2014 9:49:37 GMT 1
I wouldn't agree too much (again ), delivery of MSN160(QR) and MSN167(BC) this year is still purely an assumption and entirely goes against Airbus current predictions ("production of 30 aircraft this year" plus "delivery of 30 aircraft this year")... Fabien, MSN 160 has already been transferred to XFW (by mid-May !), and I would bet my (last) shirt that she is to be delivered this year ! QR is not going to leave her on the flightline for months while they ramp up their A380 operation ! I am less sure about MSN 167, but I believe Airbus is not going to leave an important customer stuck with a single frame ! As regard Airbus' guidance, it seems to be Bregier's style to dampen expectations with low-key forecasts, just to exceed them (cf. A350 first flight)! |
|
), delivery of MSN160(QR) and MSN167(BC) this year is still purely an assumption and entirely goes against Airbus current predictions ("production of 30 aircraft this year" plus "delivery of 30 aircraft this year")... If MSN169(last EK for this year) was convoyed way later than it should be to be deliverable this year, this could have been a clear announcement that all frames convoyed earlier should do it for this year, but this is not the case, MSN169 is still much on course for a delivery later this year...... 
?