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Post by stealthmanbob on Jul 20, 2019 18:35:58 GMT 1
Boeing is ramping up 787 production from 12 per month to 14 per month. Obviously, delivering 19 as happened in July must be a one-off feat. As regards 777 production, the 77W backlog has been depleted, and new orders are scarce. Boeing is still selling some 777F, but that is not enough to sustain production for long. Most of the backlog is for 777X, which is still in pre-certification trials, and suffers from engine delays. I don't expect many deliveries until the 777X picks up. the point is even after 777x EIS, I don't see them ramp up production; therefore, I don't see any justification for current 787 rate ... Is there not something to be said that if Boeing don't keep B787 at 14 per month they would not be able to offer production slots to tempt in new orders ? If they decreased the production rate they would be saying you can order some but you won't get them for 4-5 years ! Then the Airlines might go to Airbus and say how soon can I get some A330neos and Airbus says 2-3 years time. |
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Post by kevin5345179 on Jul 20, 2019 22:33:23 GMT 1
the point is even after 777x EIS, I don't see them ramp up production; therefore, I don't see any justification for current 787 rate ... Is there not something to be said that if Boeing don't keep B787 at 14 per month they would not be able to offer production slots to tempt in new orders ? If they decreased the production rate they would be saying you can order some but you won't get them for 4-5 years ! Then the Airlines might go to Airbus and say how soon can I get some A330neos and Airbus says 2-3 years time. the assumption is you actually need to wait that long even Boeing drops to 10/month I think the 14/month is helping accounting and production cost which is the only way they can keep playing price war I have feeling rate cut is coming after MAX RIS |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jul 20, 2019 23:13:32 GMT 1
the point is even after 777x EIS, I don't see them ramp up production; therefore, I don't see any justification for current 787 rate ... Why 'therefore' ? I don't see any link between the respective 777 and 787 production rates. As pointed out by Stealthmanbob, ramping up 787 production from 12 per month to 14 per month was an aggressive move to offer early delivery slots. I don't think that rate is sustainable ... |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jul 20, 2019 23:18:21 GMT 1
the assumption is you actually need to wait that long even Boeing drops to 10/month I think the 14/month is helping accounting and production cost which is the only way they can keep playing price war I have feeling rate cut is coming after MAX RIS Yes, a higher rate also supports aggressive pricing. Airbus probably had to cut A330neo prices to keep this product in the market. |
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Post by kevin5345179 on Jul 23, 2019 5:37:37 GMT 1
the point is even after 777x EIS, I don't see them ramp up production; therefore, I don't see any justification for current 787 rate ... Why 'therefore' ? I don't see any link between the respective 777 and 787 production rates. As pointed out by Stealthmanbob, ramping up 787 production from 12 per month to 14 per month was an aggressive move to offer early delivery slots. I don't think that rate is sustainable ... The argument you had for 777 relatively low rate is due to bridging between classic and X. My point is it is purely market driven. Comparing the backlog between the two, I don't see 787 has that kind of market and that's where therefore comes in. |
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Jul 23, 2019 11:24:51 GMT 1
The 14/month production rate, with the offering of earlier slots, seem not to have produced the flow of orders Boeing expected, or perhaps better wished for.
The backlog is today 582 frames. At 14 per month and 168 frames a year, that is a backlog of less than 3.5 years.
Orders in the last three years, 2016 58, 2017 94, 2018 109 and that were good years.
This year there are 49 net orders so far (including the Korean order).
The order numbers combined with the production rate are bringing the Backlog down fast.
If there are no increasing order numbers, Boeing will have to move back to 12 or even below 10 per month in the not to far future.
I have the feeling that Boeing accepts up and down production rates, while Airbus tries to keep them rather steady.
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Post by kevin5345179 on Aug 13, 2019 18:54:15 GMT 1
July 2019 Delivery:
737: 2
767: 3
777: 2
787: 12
Total: 19
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shpeex
spotted unpainted on the Flight Line (waiting for painting)
Posts: 1,124 
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Post by shpeex on Aug 14, 2019 7:21:31 GMT 1
19 deliveries in July 2019
P-8: 2
767-2C: 1
767-300F: 2
777F: 2
787-8: 2
787-9: 9
787-10: 1
YTD 2019 (YTD 2018)
737: 115 (298)
737-700: 3 (2)
737-800: 33 (179)
737-MAX 8: 51 (92)
737-900ER: 22 (16)
737-MAX 9: 6 (9)
747: 4 (4)
747-8F: 4 (4)
767: 25 (10)
767-300F: 10 (10)
767-2C: 15 (0)
777: 24 (25)
777-300ER: 10 (22)
777F: 14 (3)
787: 90 (80)
787-8: 3 (4)
787-9: 70 (70)
787-10: 17 (6)
Total: 258 (417)
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Post by kevin5345179 on Aug 14, 2019 8:16:41 GMT 1
quick note:
probably first month without delivery a single pax version of 737
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someone
in service - 1 year
Posts: 3,230
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Post by someone on Aug 14, 2019 8:18:43 GMT 1
Freighters and 787s, and that's it.....
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