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Post by stealthmanbob on Dec 24, 2021 13:56:05 GMT 1
I would guess they will go above 600, possibly close to 100 deliveries in December 2021 ?
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Post by ff on Dec 24, 2021 14:47:19 GMT 1
I would guess they will go above 600, possibly close to 100 deliveries in December 2021 ? The original target was 615, I agree they should be able to achieve that with 100 deliveries in December. However, the wide-body deliveries currently still significantly short of target, for both A330 and A350. Although the 600 will be achieved, or even 615, the finance forecast probably is still a bit too far, unless they achieve something like 630-640 deliveries. |
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Post by ca350 on Dec 27, 2021 7:58:37 GMT 1
Airbus delivered 518 aircrafts on contracts till the end of November.
In December, Airbus has far delivered (numbers based on delivery flights)
2 A380s
7 A350s
1 A330s
53 A320s
7 A220s
So we are about at 588 deliveries of the year before the final week.
From our past experience, the ones that have done CAFs at this point are relatively safe bet to get delivered by year end, although there are remote chances for ones that have only done non-CAF test flights to be delivered as well. Also the patterns are different between widebodies and narrowbodies, where narrowbodies that are able to get the first flight done in the next day or two still get a decent chance to get the CAF and delivery done before the bell rings for new year, weather they are flown out or not. In contrast, widebodies won’t get out of the door as fast.
Here is my preliminary list of delivery candidates ahead of the final week of the year. Note for A320 family I'm not counting the ones that did the test flights prior to December but were parked, but there will be chances for a couple ones snuck out without recent test flights.
A350s (5-6 on the safer side)
CZ : 462/478
CA: 517/528 (both have done CAFs at TSN)
3U: 550
SQ: 460
SU: 463 457 (doubtful)
QR: 430 (doubtful)
AY: 516 (doubtful)
A330s (2)
Cebu: 2002
K5 :1907
A320s (30-35) // The frames included the ones that have done only RTOs recently so the number might be a bit optimistic.
Azul: 10793
Wizz: 10508
Air China: 10086/10653/10606
Colorful Guizhou: 10725
IndiGo: 10541/10668/10746/10740
Swiss: 11084/10944
Scoot: 10675
Qingdao: 10410/10588/10724/10603/10448
China Eastern: 10658
S7: 10731
Asiana: 10633
Starlux: 10432/10426
SAS: 10500
Sichuan: 10400/10486/10127
China Southern: 10598
Shenzhen: 10561
Sky Express: 10302
LH: 10715
Peach: 10774
Loong: 10727/10685/10458
FlyAdeal: 10518/10702
A220s (4)
Breeze: 55137/55143
Iraqi: 55136/55145
So in total 588 + 6 + 2 + 30 + 4 = 630 is the ballpark number I give for this year's Airbus delivery today, give or take 10 frames or so. We'll see how the last week of the year pans out.
(Disclaimer, the list here is really a quickly made list to get some rough ideas on the delivery outlook. No need to pick on individual data entry accuracies)
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kronus
in service - 1 year
Posts: 3,400 
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Post by kronus on Jan 3, 2022 14:06:52 GMT 1
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Post by ca350 on Jan 3, 2022 18:25:11 GMT 1
Airbus delivered 518 aircrafts on contracts till the end of November. In December, Airbus has far delivered (numbers based on delivery flights) 2 A380s 7 A350s 1 A330s 53 A320s 7 A220s So we are about at 588 deliveries of the year before the final week. From our past experience, the ones that have done CAFs at this point are relatively safe bet to get delivered by year end, although there are remote chances for ones that have only done non-CAF test flights to be delivered as well. Also the patterns are different between widebodies and narrowbodies, where narrowbodies that are able to get the first flight done in the next day or two still get a decent chance to get the CAF and delivery done before the bell rings for new year, weather they are flown out or not. In contrast, widebodies won’t get out of the door as fast. Here is my preliminary list of delivery candidates ahead of the final week of the year. Note for A320 family I'm not counting the ones that did the test flights prior to December but were parked, but there will be chances for a couple ones snuck out without recent test flights. A350s (5-6 on the safer side) CZ : 462/478 CA: 517/528 (both have done CAFs at TSN) 3U: 550 SQ: 460 SU: 463 457 (doubtful) QR: 430 (doubtful) AY: 516 (doubtful) A330s (2) Cebu: 2002 K5 :1907 A320s (30-35) // The frames included the ones that have done only RTOs recently so the number might be a bit optimistic. Azul: 10793 Wizz: 10508 Air China: 10086/10653/10606 Colorful Guizhou: 10725 IndiGo: 10541/10668/10746/10740 Swiss: 11084/10944 Scoot: 10675 Qingdao: 10410/10588/10724/10603/10448 China Eastern: 10658 S7: 10731 Asiana: 10633 Starlux: 10432/10426 SAS: 10500 Sichuan: 10400/10486/10127 China Southern: 10598 Shenzhen: 10561 Sky Express: 10302 LH: 10715 Peach: 10774/10458 Loong: 10727/10685 FlyAdeal: 10518/10702 A220s (4)
Breeze: 55137/55143 Iraqi: 55136/55145 So in total 588 + 6 + 2 + 30 + 4 = 630 is the ballpark number I give for this year's Airbus delivery today, give or take 10 frames or so. We'll see how the last week of the year pans out. (Disclaimer, the list here is really a quickly made list to get some rough ideas on the delivery outlook. No need to pick on individual data entry accuracies) Happy new year everyone. Looks like I overestimated Airbus's desire to deliver in the year of 2021 in which there was really no competition in terms of deliveries. We didn't see the usual "2 test flights in 3 days and delivery" pace for A320 families in the last week so the numbers I estimated especially for narrowbodies are high. Of the list above: 10606 didn't make it for Air china; 10746/10740 didn't deliver for Indigo, whereas the A321Ns for them are all delivered after 10541 delivery later today; Qingdao was only able to fly out 1 of the 5 candidates, but there could be further flyaways in the coming days; 10731 for S7 didn't have first flight; The 3 for Sichuan all did multiple flights at XFW but if deliveries happened or not remains to be seen given their financial difficulties; 10127 for CZ didn't have first flight till today; None of Shenzhen, Sky express, LH and peach frames flew out; Loong air and FlyAdeal both took 1 of 2 potential candidates. None of 4 listed A220s flew out, if they are contractually delivered remain to be seen. In total that's 20 frames that are iffy, so I agree with the post above the total deliveries should be at around 610, with possibilities for more depending how many Airbus delivered but didn't fly out. |
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Post by ff on Jan 8, 2022 22:57:01 GMT 1
"Airbus will give an update on orders and deliveries after markets close on Monday, with Boeing disclosing data on Tuesday. The European company declined to comment beforehand. Deliveries have been partially secured during the crisis by workarounds that allow some carriers to delay accounting for new planes on their balance sheets, Reuters reported in July, though such agreements must also be reviewed by auditors." "With Airbus confident of beating its 2021 target by up to 11 units, the focus has turned to narrowbody production rates and deliveries in 2022 as the aviation industry tries to re-mobilise a crisis-weakened supply chain. Galleys and seats are among the items under pressure from shipping delays or chip shortages, industry sources said, with some aircraft due for delivery in 2022 estimated a few months late. One source saw a risk of some airplanes drifting to 2023. Airbus has not given a delivery forecast for 2022, but it is expected to be comfortably higher than 2021, analysts said." www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airbus-2021-deliveries-hover-between-605-611-units-sources-2022-01-07/ |
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Post by ff on Jan 10, 2022 18:22:25 GMT 1
Total delivery for 2021: 611
50 A220
483 A320
18 A330
55 A350
5 A380
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someone
in service - 1 year
Posts: 3,333
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Post by someone on Jan 15, 2022 8:03:43 GMT 1
Details for December and YTD
A220-300: 7
A320neo: 33
A321: 1
A321neo: 32
A330-300: 1
A330-900: 1
A350-900: 13
A350-1000: 3
A380: 2
Total: 93
2021 (2020)
A220: 50 (38)
A220-100: 3 (10)
A220-300: 47 (28)
A320-series: 483 (446)
A319: 2 (3)
A319neo: 2 (0)
A320: 0 (3)
A320neo: 258 (253)
A321: 22 (9)
A321neo: 199 (178)
A330: 18 (19)
A330-200: 3 (5)
A330-300: 1 (1)
A330-800: 1 (3)
A330-900: 13 (10)
A350: 55 (59)
A350-900: 49 (45)
A350-1000: 6 (14)
A380: 5 (4)
Total: 611 (566)
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Post by stealthmanbob on Jan 15, 2022 11:57:39 GMT 1
Could you add in the Dec 2021 delivery total no. please someone 😀 |
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Jan 15, 2022 12:00:31 GMT 1
Could you add in the Dec 2021 delivery total no. please someone 😀 611 - 518 = 93 or 7 + 33 + 1 + 32 + 1 + 1 + 13 + 3 + 2 = 93 |
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