s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Jan 22, 2016 12:55:45 GMT 1
Right - looking into the airwaysnews analysis they have 5x "i" for KE and 1x "BBJ" + 10x "f" + they do have 4x "f" white tails + 2x "i" white tails. Really not much left.... I am not sure he is correct on the white tails - few month back here was said there was altogether 10 white tails - OK some might have gone out... So there is theoretically 16 pcs to deliver and only 10 pcs to produce !
So how many will they produce - before/if - this AirForce 1 order arrive ?
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Jan 22, 2016 14:01:36 GMT 1
Even at this rate Boeing will be producing at above publicly announced demand. Using this excellent source docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hD2Gkil30TiAIaV52BgTtfUrPyTdyi8qvCN59c_LHjU/pubThere are 5 frames ( 1xF ) in storage, 4 ( 2xF ) awaiting delivery, 3 ( 2xF ) in final assembly and 7 ( 4xF ) scheduled for final assembly. A rate reduction to .5 per month in September equates to 10 frames entering final assembly in 2016, three more than currently scheduled. So I make that at least 17 frames to be found 'homes' plus however many of the 5 in storage Boeing can place. Officially the orderbook of unfilled orders has 20 frames but 7 of the 13 passenger versions are unlikely to be delivered ( although 3 have been built !! ). I guess the freighters will find homes especially with ABC apparently willing to take them on lease. In summary without new orders the number of frames being stored will be rising this time next year even with the reduced production rate. Geoff
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Jan 28, 2016 20:52:13 GMT 1
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Jan 29, 2016 11:03:35 GMT 1
Yes they seem to agree with me !!! They don't mention the BBJ that is in long term storage. I'm presuming that this has become an 'NTU' but it could be awaiting outfitting. The other three passenger models in long term storage are the test aircraft rejected by Lufthansa and the two built for Transaero. No news of homes being found for these. KE has now taken delivery of their fifth 747-8 with five to go. These could be the last five passengers versions built, although Air China were rumoured to want more. Geoff
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Jan 29, 2016 11:32:13 GMT 1
All together I am pretty sure that on the 747-8 project BO lost a lot of money. The number of produced frames could hardly cover the cost of the changed model - and the changes were extensive.
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Post by fanairbus on Jan 29, 2016 15:07:50 GMT 1
Is it possible that the B747-8 had enough of an effect on Airbus to make the pill for BO a little bit easier to swallow?
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Jan 29, 2016 16:41:40 GMT 1
Yes they seem to agree with me !!! They don't mention the BBJ that is in long term storage. I'm presuming that this has become an 'NTU' but it could be awaiting outfitting. The other three passenger models in long term storage are the test aircraft rejected by Lufthansa and the two built for Transaero. No news of homes being found for these. KE has now taken delivery of their fifth 747-8 with five to go. These could be the last five passengers versions built, although Air China were rumoured to want more. Geoff Didn't include the 2 or 3 frames needed by the USAF for use by the President. I'd like to see them adapt the Transaero frames but that would be just too logical and will never happen !!!! Geoff
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jan 29, 2016 17:36:53 GMT 1
The presidential frames need to be built to specs to account for restricted military/security features.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Feb 7, 2016 12:14:00 GMT 1
An update based on Boeing's end of January figures and this excellent source ; docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hD2Gkil30TiAIaV52BgTtfUrPyTdyi8qvCN59c_LHjU/pubUnfilled orders now ; 747-8 - total 12 Transaero 4 ( 2 in storage , 2 not being built ) Korean Airlines 5 (1 on the flightline, 1 in final assembly, 3 scheduled for final assembly ) Arik Air 2 ( not being built ) BBJ 1 ( in storage ) 747-8F - total 7 Cargolux 1 ( scheduled for final assembly ) Cathay Pacific 1 ( on the flightline ) Korean Air Cargo 1 ( in final assembly ) Silk Way Airlines 2 ( 1 on flightline, 1 in final assembly ) Nippon Cargo 2 ( deferred pending cancellation ? ) Air Bridge Cargo, none ordered but 1 on the flightline and 2 scheduled for final assembly and probably intended for 'rental' from Boeing. 2 or 3 copies of a military variant for the Commander in Chief will be required at some stage. Still no more orders to justify even production running at .5 per month. Geoff
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Feb 7, 2016 12:27:42 GMT 1
So if I understand it correctly we can expect deliveries (outside VC25?) to: 8i 5x Korean
8F 1x Cargolux 1x Cathay 1x Korean 2x Silkway
And there are stored frames 8i 3x (LH + 2xTN)
8BBJ 1x Qatar
8F MSN18 - whyatever we call it.
So the stored situation with 8i seems hopeless, I doubt the NTU LH frame will go out. But as it seems only 1x 8F.
Anyway this year + VC25 and that is it.
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