noistar
Final Assembly Line stage 2
Posts: 388
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Post by noistar on Apr 14, 2013 11:29:13 GMT 1
StratAero is run by the biggest Airbus basher you'd find on the net, Saj Ahmad. He's well known for spouting utter BS about Airbus while posing as an aerospace "expert". It's so bad that there's an entire blog dedicated to fact-checking his tripe, not to mention his dodgy credentials too. sajahmadfactcheck.blogspot.ca/This is a frequently popping BS. The single biggest reason why the 77W/L succeeded in beating the A345/6 is because of the 4 engines vs. 2. At the time of its development, Airbus hadn't expected the changes to ETOPS/ LROPS that made the quads less necessary. The 777X on the other hand goes head to head with Airbus's very own big twin and unless Boeing can put in as much clear daylight technologically between the two as between a quad vs. twin, there's no way in the world the 777X could "decimate" the A350-1000. You could however see that wherever Airbus pitched an identical engined aircraft to compete with other Boeing types, they were massively successful: A320 vs. 737, A330 vs. 767/772, A380 vs. 747, A358/9 vs. 787. There's no reason to say that the A350-1000 is a "DOA". It will be a successful aircraft. Definition of 'expert' -Ex (a former) spurt (a drip under pressure)
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spotterxfw
in service - 2 years
Hometown XFW
Posts: 3,876
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Post by spotterxfw on Apr 18, 2013 21:17:15 GMT 1
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Apr 18, 2013 21:37:43 GMT 1
EK is teasing Boeing with possible orders for 275 (!!!) widebodies. Tough negociatiations must be ongoing behind the scene about guaranteed performances, delivery dates and prices .... I suppose that Boeing cannot commit to performances without backing from GE ... EK is also weighing on the specs, but their requirement may be very specific, and Boeing must attract other customers ... Anyhow, both parties need the deal.
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Post by rinascimento on May 4, 2013 12:20:37 GMT 1
Probably A350 will sell some, but if you look at the performance of the 777X, one must be pretty insane to choose the 350. Unless you want to lose money. So probably euro carriers will buy more
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on May 4, 2013 13:11:00 GMT 1
Probably A350 will sell some, but if you look at the performance of the 777X, one must be pretty insane to choose the 350. Unless you want to lose money. So probably euro carriers will buy more This a very strange comment, which does not display much knowledge or competence, unless it is just inpired by brand loyalty to Boeing. The challenge to Boeing's market share from the A350-1000 is formidable, because the aircraft is state-of-the-art, extremely fuel efficient, appropriately sized for a market which to-day belongs to Boeing only, and is scheduled to reach the market two years before the 777X. Any knowledgeable person, especially at BCA, is aware of the strength of that challenge. Recent orders from several premium airlines show a strong and growing market interest in spite of a lack of delivery slots. The 777X is Boeing's interesting reply to that challenge. It is mainly based on the creation of a new (for a twin-jet) 400 seats market segment, in which Boeing hopes to reign supreme because Airbus' A350-1000 is smaller (350 seats). This aircraft is intended to allow high-density seating (10 abreast) thanks to a slightly wider fuselage as compared to existing 777 versions. Boeing's 350 seats 777X version is of less obvious economic importance : being similar to, but heavier than its competitor, and reaching the market in 2021 only, it will be at a disadvantage, as evidenced by the tepid welcome it received from Boeing's customers (a somewhat similar situation in reverse is the poor-selling A350-800 vs the B 787). To meet Emirates' demands, Boeing also offers a ULH version serving a market niche. The main questions therefore are : 1) How will sales split between the 350-seat and 400-seat sizes ? 2) Would most airlines go for high density seating on long haul flights (the only way for the 777X to beat the A350-1000's CASK/CASM) ? Not being privy to airlines' judgements, and not being a prophet, I do not know the answers to these questions, though I believe that there is more risk on Boeing's side.
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on May 4, 2013 16:52:35 GMT 1
1. Firstly, the 777X is still not defined and is a paper aircraft at the moment. The A350 is better defined at this stage since we have assembled examples and better engineering data, hence the flurry of orders for the -1000.
2. A later entry does not necessarily mean the A350 is obsoleted. Much the same way as the late entry of the A350-800 does not obsolete the 787.
3. The -9X sits ~50 seats above the -1000 if it is configured in a 10 abreast layout and so the markets are different. The shorter -8LX is a complementary ultra-long range model that is not expected to sell in big numbers since the lighter -1000 would do a better job on most routes (See A350-800 vs. 787-9). If the 777X are configured at 9 abreast, the seat count will be closer to the -900 and -1000, and so there's no benefit of operating the heavier frames for anything other than for the longest routes.
4. Much of the improvement for the 777X is said to come from the next generation engines. And GE's tie up with Boeing on the 777 can have a few implications on the engine market. As it stands, GE and RR have a split market for the 787, RR sole for the A350-800/900 and exclusivity for -1000.
With GE's reluctance to provide engines on them, the -800/-900 present PW with the perfect low risk opportunity to break into the widebody market with a GTF engine as they are up against only 1 other competitor and it's no secret that PW has been carrying out studies for an engine on the A350 later on (see previous posts). RR would be under pressure to make good on the A350 program to stay competitive with a possible PW GTF and the 777X.
It is also quite possible that RR may produce a revamped derivative of the engines using newer technology past 2020 with for example composite fan blades, something they've hinted would be available by the end of this decade. Keep in mind that GE was able to produce an upgraded derivative of the GE90 within a decade of rolling out the first 777.
Also, the 777X puts Airbus under pressure to improve the A380 and one possibility is to re-engine it at the end of the decade. RR or PW could also apply the A350 engines to the A380, spreading the development costs over two families.
5. Above all, 2019 is too far out to make a useful prediction using the information we have today. A lot of things can happen in that time that changes the market dynamics.
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on May 4, 2013 17:12:12 GMT 1
The A350 and 777-9X are not directly competing with each other. Just like the 787 and A350, operators will order both.
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Post by rinascimento on May 5, 2013 15:42:51 GMT 1
Probably A350 will sell some, but if you look at the performance of the 777X, one must be pretty insane to choose the 350. Unless you want to lose money. So probably euro carriers will buy more This a very strange comment, which does not display much knowledge or competence, unless it is just inpired by brand loyalty to Boeing.
Not being privy to airlines' judgements, and not being a prophet, I do not know the answers to these questions, though I believe that there is more risk on Boeing's side.Hey, take it easy philidor, especially on the competence part. Actually i am very knowledgeable and informed about it. That is unlike others, who are not prophets (no truer words were written!) and retired (not so up to date.) I understand that and you have my best wishes. I wish i could share more, but, well, I am not retired, you see and i don't take this forum that seriously either. For your education, it is exactly with technology that this 777x will make the 350-1000 look like an obsolete aircraft, from exclusive engines and range to comfort and cabin and commonality. The end of the year will prove me right. Get out more, watch closely what technology will be introduced on the 777x and get better informed. Maybe the 350 will compete with the 777 on the market today. Just maybe. Also, i am not loyal to Boeing, but to free market, fair competition and awesome products. That stuff on the 350 is obsolete by 2020 standards and will make less money than a 777x. So why get all bothered? That's just solid info based on numbers. Don't get angry and don't take it personal, it's not like you work(ed) for Airbus...or is it ?
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on May 5, 2013 21:36:07 GMT 1
This a very strange comment, which does not display much knowledge or competence, unless it is just inpired by brand loyalty to Boeing.
Not being privy to airlines' judgements, and not being a prophet, I do not know the answers to these questions, though I believe that there is more risk on Boeing's side.Hey, take it easy philidor, especially on the competence part. Actually i am very knowledgeable and informed about it. That is unlike others, who are not prophets (no truer words were written!) and retired (not so up to date.) I understand that and you have my best wishes. I wish i could share more, but, well, I am not retired, you see and i don't take this forum that seriously either. For your education, it is exactly with technology that this 777x will make the 350-1000 look like an obsolete aircraft, from exclusive engines and range to comfort and cabin and commonality. The end of the year will prove me right. Get out more, watch closely what technology will be introduced on the 777x and get better informed. Maybe the 350 will compete with the 777 on the market today. Just maybe. Also, i am not loyal to Boeing, but to free market, fair competition and awesome products. That stuff on the 350 is obsolete by 2020 standards and will make less money than a 777x. So why get all bothered? That's just solid info based on numbers. Don't get angry and don't take it personal, it's not like you work(ed) for Airbus...or is it ? The B777-9X/8X will be refurbished old frame, the A350 is an all new airplane, so maybe the B777-X will not be a complete flop.
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on May 6, 2013 3:34:46 GMT 1
The B777-9X/8X will be refurbished old frame, the A350 is an all new airplane, so maybe the B777-X will not be a complete flop. No no no! You don't understand. We're being told by our knowledgeable and informed poster that the 777X is soooo good that the A350 will be obsolete even before it takes first flight and Airbus will sit on their behinds doing nothing, making no effort to produce an efficient, up-to-date, comfortable mid-size aircraft, handing Boeing the monopoly while they go out of business, and ultimately spelling doom to the customers and this site...
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