mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Oct 14, 2019 18:06:31 GMT 1
So, discussions are dragging on. EK apparently wants to defer 777X deliveries and to substitute some 787s to its existing 777X order, while Boeing is resisting the push. I feel the most important disagreement must be on the delivery schedule, since Boeing needs EK to start taking delivery in order to ramp up 777X production. Tim Clark, however, is only talking about 2020, which anyhow, as a consequence of GE9X delays, will see few if any 777X deliveries. The hard discussions must be about the 2020-2025 period. I doubt a settlement is to be announced at the Dubai air show, but who knows ? EDIT : According to Reuters Tim Clark, talking about 777X testing delays, said he insisted on 'a 13 to 16 month test period' for the new aircraft. As it's not his business to plan a test campaign, I think he signals that he is in no hurry to receive 779s. www.reuters.com/article/us-emirates-boeing-transport-aero/emirates-sees-place-for-boeing-787-in-airlines-fleet-president-idUSKBN1WT0KJA test frame has to see a certain usage to find the things that could go wrong. As it is test campaigns are not able to iron out all possible problems. If we look at wide body test campaigns in the last years: A330neo 2 frames, FF 19 October 2017, EIS 15 December 2018, 14 month A350-1000 3 frames, FF 24 November 2016, EIS 24 February 2018, 15 month A350-900 5 frames, FF 14 June 2013, EIS 15 January 2015, 19 month 787-10 3 frames, FF 31 March 2017, EIS 3 April 2018, 12 month 787-9 1 ? frame, FF 17 September 2013, EIS 9 August 2014, 19 month 787-8 6 frames, FF 15 December 2009, EIS 26 October 2011, 23 month In what way can you argue that a 13 to 16 month test campaign with 5 777-9 is an unreasonable request from Tim Clarke? It is his business to make sure that he gets frames that are ready for use. I think it rather unreasonable from Boeing that they want to do it in less than 12 month. There have been short cuts with the 737MAX, the FAA and Boeing have to make sure there will not be any shortcuts with the 777-9, if it is only to reach a certain reliability before EIS, not talking here about dangerous shortcuts.
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Post by kevin5345179 on Oct 14, 2019 18:16:47 GMT 1
So, discussions are dragging on. EK apparently wants to defer 777X deliveries and to substitute some 787s to its existing 777X order, while Boeing is resisting the push. I feel the most important disagreement must be on the delivery schedule, since Boeing needs EK to start taking delivery in order to ramp up 777X production. Tim Clark, however, is only talking about 2020, which anyhow, as a consequence of GE9X delays, will see few if any 777X deliveries. The hard discussions must be about the 2020-2025 period. I doubt a settlement is to be announced at the Dubai air show, but who knows ? EDIT : According to Reuters Tim Clark, talking about 777X testing delays, said he insisted on 'a 13 to 16 month test period' for the new aircraft. As it's not his business to plan a test campaign, I think he signals that he is in no hurry to receive 779s. www.reuters.com/article/us-emirates-boeing-transport-aero/emirates-sees-place-for-boeing-787-in-airlines-fleet-president-idUSKBN1WT0KJA test frame has to see a certain usage to find the things that could go wrong. As it is test campaigns are not able to iron out all possible problems. If we look at wide body test campaigns in the last years: A330neo 2 frames, FF 19 October 2017, EIS 15 December 2018, 14 month A350-1000 3 frames, FF 24 November 2016, EIS 24 February 2018, 15 month A350-900 5 frames, FF 14 June 2013, EIS 15 January 2015, 19 month 787-10 3 frames, FF 31 March 2017, EIS 3 April 2018, 12 month 787-9 1 ? frame, FF 17 September 2013, EIS 9 August 2014, 19 month 787-8 6 frames, FF 15 December 2009, EIS 26 October 2011, 23 month In what way can you argue that a 13 to 16 month test campaign with 5 777-9 is an unreasonable request from Tim Clarke? It is his business to make sure that he gets frames that are ready for use. I think it rather unreasonable from Boeing that the want to do it in less than 12 month. There have been short cuts with the 737MAX, the FAA and Boeing have to make sure there will not be any shortcuts with the 777-9, if it is only to reach a certain reliability before EIS, not talking here about dangerous shortcuts. You haven't factored in the recent JATR report .... I think that'll certainly adds time given how it criticize FAA not doing their job and internal pressure from Boeing management to ask employee certify the plane.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Oct 15, 2019 8:23:42 GMT 1
Also the "grandfathering" will be look through and re-tested......
Also do not forget that FAA certification in this case is only the first step - in order to fly somewhere useful, it must have certification "global" !
And it will take time.....
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Oct 15, 2019 23:44:51 GMT 1
In what way can you argue that a 13 to 16 month test campaign with 5 777-9 is an unreasonable request from Tim Clarke? It is his business to make sure that he gets frames that are ready for use. It's not for customers to advise the manufacturer on test campaigns. It's for the manufacturer to determine the test programme, and for the regulator to check the results and certify the type if and when it meets all the regulations. If EK was in a hurry to receive 779s, then Clark would scorn Boeing for any delay ; yet, he remained silent when Boeing and GE announced a schedule slip. The reason is that his true concerns are low demand and excessive capacity. Clark needs to postpone deliveries, and hopes for a programme delay. If you think that he is suggesting a longer test programme for the sake of security, then you may be slightly naive.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Oct 16, 2019 1:02:11 GMT 1
In what way can you argue that a 13 to 16 month test campaign with 5 777-9 is an unreasonable request from Tim Clarke? It is his business to make sure that he gets frames that are ready for use. It's not for customers to advise the manufacturer on test campaigns. It's for the manufacturer to determine the test programme, and for the regulator to check the results and certify the type if and when it meets all the regulations. If EK was in a hurry to receive 779s, then Clark would scorn Boeing for any delay ; yet, he remained silent when Boeing and GE announced a schedule slip. The reason is that his true concerns are low demand and excessive capacity. Clark needs to postpone deliveries, and hopes for a programme delay. If you think that he is suggesting a longer test programme for the sake of security, then you may be slightly naive. I assume that EK is not interested in a hastily tested frame that breaks down or falls out of the sky, when the frames are getting delivered. It is hardly outside the scope for one of the first customers to expect a thoroughly tested and reliable product. That Boeing is even suggesting a shortened test campaign, (shorter than any previous campaign, even using a similar number of frames), seems to be ridiculous, especially after then 737MAX certification disaster. It was not EK that promised the timelines. Boeing, getting delayed, should refrain now from trying for testing and certification shortcuts, to keep a timeline that was probably not realistic from the start. I expect, that if the FAA does not put it's foot down, other regulators will. Not EK is ridiculous, to expecting a 13 to 16 month campaign, but Boeing trying for something shorter. edit: To continue, I actually do not believe, that Boeing is that naive to expect a test campaign of less than 12 month. I think Boeing has a eye on the stock market and is not prepared to add to the bad news now. In Q3 of 2020 the 737MAX is perhaps flying, with everybody overjoyed, it will be a far better time to deliver the bad news of a delay in the EIS of the 777-9.
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Post by kevin5345179 on Oct 17, 2019 16:38:09 GMT 1
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Post by kevin5345179 on Oct 18, 2019 17:05:28 GMT 1
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Post by marlibu on Oct 19, 2019 22:06:05 GMT 1
I said pretty much the same period in the EIS thread... now if i could only get those pesky lotto numbers lined up properly....
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Post by kevin5345179 on Oct 23, 2019 1:37:42 GMT 1
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Post by marlibu on Oct 23, 2019 2:42:47 GMT 1
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