philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 1, 2016 13:39:54 GMT 1
There is not a single line about some problems on the PW website. The following story reports the latest (January 27th) P&W update. atwonline.com/engines/pratt-s-2015-profit-falls-utc-reiterates-confidence-gtfAccording to P&W CEO Greg Hayes : - the needed fix to the PW1100G powering the Airbus A320neo is 'pretty minor' and will be completed in the first half of 2016; - the Pratt team has identified the fixes needed to solve the issue ; it’s a software fix and a minor hardware fix [that are] relatively simple to do ; - engines with the fix will start being delivered by the end of the second quarter and the small number of engines delivered before then will be retrofitted with the fix ; - otherwise, the GTF is 'rock solid' and 'meeting [P&W's] commitments on day one for fuel burn, emissions and noise ; - Paul Adams's retirement as the company's president was not anticipated or driven by UTC ; his retirement was sudden, it wasn’t expected. My take on these statements is that the problem is solved in principle, but full implementation (= production of new parts, retrofit to already built engines, incorporation of the fix into new engine production) will delay most A320neo deliveries until mid-year 2016. |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 1, 2016 13:50:45 GMT 1
About 15 A320neo are waiting with or without engines. A320npe as they are called on a.net. As shown by the thread title ('npe' stands for 'no Pratt engine'), that A.net thread was created to incite P&W bashing, in my opinion. A lot of posters are raising irrelevant security issues or unduly questioning the company's ability. Let's keep an unbiased view of the developing situation. |
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959 
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Post by s543 on Feb 1, 2016 16:12:07 GMT 1
According to P&W CEO Greg Hayes : - the needed fix to the PW1100G powering the Airbus A320neo is 'pretty minor' and will be completed in the first half of 2016; - the Pratt team has identified the fixes needed to solve the issue ; it’s a software fix and a minor hardware fix [that are] relatively simple to do ; - engines with the fix will start being delivered by the end of the second quarter and the small number of engines delivered before then will be retrofitted with the fix ; - otherwise, the GTF is 'rock solid' and 'meeting [P&W's] commitments on day one for fuel burn, emissions and noise ; - Paul Adams's retirement as the company's president was not anticipated or driven by UTC ; his retirement was sudden, it wasn’t expected. My take on these statements is that the problem is solved in principle, but full implementation (= production of new parts, retrofit to already built engines, incorporation of the fix into new engine production) will delay most A320neo deliveries until mid-year 2016. My take on this is simple: It is delay to the neo program by more than HALF a year ! We will not see any deliveries since the LEAP is not yet ready, probably in June/July !!! If it takes around 6 moth to solve it is not a minor issue and the solution must be fairly complicated - hence the time costly rework. It will cost PW a fortune - probably the profit of 2016 is going to be "negative". We can see the reason why Paul Adams decided to retire - just before he would be kicked off by the shareholders. It will be than complicated to sell the engines for some time - before the confidence will return, not an easy task. The damage was already done and can not be as we see easily undone. |
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Feb 1, 2016 16:14:50 GMT 1
I'm sorry but that's not correct. Lufthansa will get another one this month, and I heard IndiGo and Spirit too will receive A320neo's without the fix.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Feb 1, 2016 16:17:39 GMT 1
Nice to hear there are some airlines ready to help with the program to take off !
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 1, 2016 17:33:02 GMT 1
I see nothing dramatic in the situation outlined by P&W. This is by no means a six month A320neo programme delay, for the following reasons.
- A320neos keep being built at the previously set rate ; I expect all aircraft in storage to be completed (with engine attachment) around mid-year, and immediately delivered ; the situation should quickly be back to normal.
- We can expect a growing stock of undelivered frames, which will disappear in the summer.
- Q1 and Q2 deliveries may come down to a trickle, but total 2016 deliveries should be as planned.
- P&W will incur a moderate one-off customer compensation charge.
- I don't expect this temporary issue to change the market view of the engine : if the GTF truly meets performance commitments, then this episode will be quickly forgotten.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Feb 1, 2016 17:47:48 GMT 1
Let's hope it is going to as painless as you describe it, but there are issues with financing.
There are going to be planes manufactured but stored for a couple of months - planes that should have been according to contract out - i.e. paid for - all the suppliers must be paid, all the employees have to be paid, all other costs must be taken care of... and we are speaking about many hundred of millions. All will be covered - minus the compensation to the customers for late delivery and the interests - those go after PW and those are going to be quite a lot. The negative cash flow is going to be not negligible.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 1, 2016 18:08:56 GMT 1
The negative cash flow is going to be not negligible. You're right, this should make a dent in Airbus Q1/Q2 cashflow statements, though Airbus is such a large company that I don't know if it is a real concern. |
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Feb 1, 2016 18:56:34 GMT 1
The negative cash flow is going to be not negligible. You're right, this should make a dent in Airbus Q1/Q2 cashflow statements, though Airbus is such a large company that I don't know if it is a real concern. Probably not, they still produce quantity of the ceo and it might cover it, or any bank would be most happy to provide the backing. |
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Post by FabienA380 on Feb 2, 2016 12:11:59 GMT 1
After the fix is done by P&W, Airbus would still somehow need to complete some hours of flight tests?..... Taking at least a few weeks if not a month?.....
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