s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
|
Post by s543 on Feb 22, 2014 21:22:29 GMT 1
Thanks for info Fabien. That 1 frame - OK we will see when in real life will go out. There are always some irregularities. + - 1 is no real issue. All will be clear when we see how many convoys is there going to be..... We are still on the pace 3/month. Also some light on the situation will come if new orders will hopefully arrive.
|
|
mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
|
Post by mjoelnir on Feb 22, 2014 22:39:21 GMT 1
It seems that we would only have 30 convoys this year, hopefully all of them carrying a full frame. The difference of 1 frame is MSN160, it shouldn't be planned for 2014 but 2015... I don't know why Airbus now keeps convoying frames that aren't for delivery too soon (Example: MSN145 as well)... So 25 in Airbus facilities minus MSN160 plus the 4 frames still to convoy this year, plus 2 already delivered, all equal 30, that's the goal set by Airbus. I think what we are discussing in fact is if the production is going to increase, but according to Airbus the few next years would see 30 deliveries. An ancient plan for Emirates was to receive the 90th A380 in November-2017, and this was (at my surprise!) rementioned lately by Tim Clarks, soon after the last order or 50. Also here a380.boards.net/post/16032/thread I think what was mentioning by Mr. Clarks as well, was that from December-2017 to December-2018 Emirates would receive 25. Hence, 13 frames for Emirates in 2014 (leaving lots for other airlines), and an average of 12 per year in 2015, 2016 and 2017 (to reach #90 in November-2017) would leave plenty of space for all other airlines. What we have to keep in mind I guess, it what Airbus is mentioning, as opposed to what The Press is assuming from other sources,... (Emirates receiving that many per year, until that year,...). I think our conversation turns about this. Fabien Dear Fabian take out a calculator. 46 frames until November 2017 would mean about 12 frames a year and that is the old order. But 25 frames of the new order should, according to the press release of Emirates, already be delivered by the first quarter of 2018. That would according to your program mean delivering 25 frames from November 2017 until March 2018. That would mean 5 frames per month in that time frame, does that sound reasonable? Or does it sound more reasonable, even if would not fit with the 12 frames for Emirates a year program and the 30 frames per year program, that Airbus would start increasing deliveries to Emirates a bit earlier?
|
|
|
Post by addasih on Feb 22, 2014 22:47:03 GMT 1
There was one convoy in 2013 which was split in 3 parts a, b and c (was convoy 5) and a convoy which was split in two parts (convoy 4). Then the next convoy after 5c was 9. So technically only 30 complete frames were convoyed in 2013
|
|
|
Post by addasih on Feb 22, 2014 22:53:42 GMT 1
Guys when you refer to Emirates PRs sometimes there are confusion between the calendar year and Emirates fiscal year. Please keep this in mind. Emirates fiscal year ends on end of March of the next year. Example emirates 2013 fiscal year will end on end of March 2014
|
|
mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
|
Post by mjoelnir on Feb 22, 2014 22:55:57 GMT 1
I would not expect a increase in delivery rate before 2016. I would expect a slight increase in production of parts upstream this year and a slight increase in convoys in 2015.
I expect an increase of yearly deliveries to Emirates in 2015 and deliveries going full swing to Emirates in 2016 to finish delivering both the old order and half of the new order by beginning of 2018.
|
|
s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
|
Post by s543 on Feb 22, 2014 23:45:41 GMT 1
The whole thing is really not clear. I was reading again what Tim Clark said and it did not make more sense now than 3 month back....... The overlap of old and new order is still there. The 3 month a year difference helps but still - see what mjoelnir writes.
Does some one here know: ( I have asked before with no answer).
How long before the convoy are the first items being purchased - production started ? How long before the convoy must the SPIRIT parts arrive ? How long before the convoy must start the work on the engines ? (I am rooting the timing to the convoy since it is "known" point - but any other point in time is fine.)
Answers to those questions will as I do believe bring more understanding to the processes involved.
|
|
mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
|
Post by mjoelnir on Feb 23, 2014 1:08:07 GMT 1
Guys when you refer to Emirates PRs sometimes there are confusion between the calendar year and Emirates fiscal year. Please keep this in mind. Emirates fiscal year ends on end of March of the next year. Example emirates 2013 fiscal year will end on end of March 2014 That would explain why Emirates talks in their press release about before the first quarter of 2018. But that does not change the fact that the 25 extra frames should be produced and delivered before end of march 2018 together with the to be delivered 45 frames from the old order, with the delivery of the Amedeo frames starting in 2016, new Singapore frames starting in 2017. Even if we throw out Virgin, having anyway postponed to 2018, Hong Kong Airlines, Air Austral and Qantas last eight, we can expect most of the rest not wanting to wait for their frames too long. And is everybody sure there will be no more orders for the A380 this year or next year? I imagine some airlines to speculate how to counter Emirates.
|
|
philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
|
Post by philidor on Feb 23, 2014 10:21:27 GMT 1
We know from Airbus' fairly recent comments on vacant 2015 slots that lead time is about two years. So, the pace of production cannot be changed before 2016 at earliest. Airbus' statements and the number of convoys in 2014 point to a stable rate (30 per year) for that period.
Starting in 2016/2017, Airbus can adjust the numbers, depending on demand. I am sure they will if they take new orders or if EK wants to speed up deliveries, but I think all this is still moving.
|
|
s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
|
Post by s543 on Feb 23, 2014 10:56:17 GMT 1
I have read somewhere - but can not remember where - that the real limit in production is the capacity of engine manufacturers ?
|
|
|
Post by peter on Feb 23, 2014 19:53:11 GMT 1
I have read somewhere - but can not remember where - that the real limit in production is the capacity of engine manufacturers ? Well that would be a first. I have never seen anything like this, but if you can retrace the link..... That would be very interesting
|
|