sciing
in service - 1 year
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Post by sciing on Mar 29, 2019 17:30:14 GMT 1
I put this comment here because I talk deliveries for the whole family. Last years average monthly delivery rate was 52.2 frames. The production rate was around 52 frames, lower at the beginning of the year and higher at the end of the year. If we would have full swing deliveries, we should see at least 52 frames getting delivered each month at this time, increasing during the year. Airbus is still far below those numbers, 33 in January, 39 in February and they are now 43 in March. Together something around 40 frames below rate in the first 3 month. The best Q1 ever for 1st and delivery flights so far. I will go in detail when the month is over and not 2 days before missing many deliveries. |
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
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Post by mjoelnir on Mar 29, 2019 20:29:47 GMT 1
I put this comment here because I talk deliveries for the whole family. Last years average monthly delivery rate was 52.2 frames. The production rate was around 52 frames, lower at the beginning of the year and higher at the end of the year. If we would have full swing deliveries, we should see at least 52 frames getting delivered each month at this time, increasing during the year. Airbus is still far below those numbers, 33 in January, 39 in February and they are now 43 in March. Together something around 40 frames below rate in the first 3 month. The best Q1 ever for 1st and delivery flights so far. I will go in detail when the month is over and not 2 days before missing many deliveries. It would be a crying shame if it would not be the best Q1. Airbus is ramping up. At years end it should be near to 700 frames instead of 626 in 2018. What I am talking about, is that they are up to the next slow start. A few frames more or less do not change that. |
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sciing
in service - 1 year
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Post by sciing on Mar 29, 2019 21:18:11 GMT 1
The best Q1 ever for 1st and delivery flights so far. I will go in detail when the month is over and not 2 days before missing many deliveries. It would be a crying shame if it would not be the best Q1. Airbus is ramping up. At years end it should be near to 700 frames instead of 626 in 2018. What I am talking about, is that they are up to the next slow start. A few frames more or less do not change that. Same procedure as every year, but difference to last year is already huge. 1st half of January is for sure slow as many deliveries were pulled into December, that explains something like 25 frames less delivered in Q1. From all sites XFW seems to be the only one slow in February. Maybe the pilots have to take vacation, reducing overtime from last year. We see no gliders, but stored finished frames in XFW (old and new MSNs). TLS has almost no old frame without FF (only 8588 and 8635), TSN and BFM runs at 4-5 per month like a clockwork with no old MSNs left. |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
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Post by philidor on Mar 30, 2019 13:04:50 GMT 1
From all sites XFW seems to be the only one slow in February. I don't think FAL performance is what matters at this period of the year. The supply chain as a whole is what determines the number of aircraft produced and delivered this year. If no supplier is behind schedule, we'll see numbers increasing per plan. I suppose a comparatively slow start was expected, and I hope Airbus has plans to progressively reach a steady production flow. Hopefully, we'll see it being implemented from Q2 on. |
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sciing
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Post by sciing on Mar 30, 2019 13:53:16 GMT 1
From all sites XFW seems to be the only one slow in February. I don't think FAL performance is what matters at this period of the year. The supply chain as a whole is what determines the number of aircraft produced and delivered this year. If no supplier is behind schedule, we'll see numbers increasing per plan. I suppose a comparatively slow start was expected, and I hope Airbus has plans to progressively reach a steady production flow. Hopefully, we'll see it being implemented from Q2 on. There is something strange in XFW since months, the amount of stored frames is huge and for delivery you have to test the aircraft, haven’t you. So it will matter for the amount of deliveries. But I do not see a huge supply issue, there is a huge step up visible in the 1st flight numbers and the flaws and issues to count deliveries at any moment in year/month were already discussed. Making conclusions is risky as there are other “issues” than just supply. There were 157 1st flights in this quarter, the 4th best quarter ever. Only last years Q3+Q4 and the 2017 Q4 were better. Last year Q1 was 111, the best Q1 was 2017 with 134. The numbers for each FAL site TSN 14 4,7/month BFM 14 4,7/month TLS 50 16,7/month XFW 79 26,7/month |
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
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Post by mjoelnir on Mar 30, 2019 14:15:44 GMT 1
I think one point is still engines and it seems especially engines for the A321neo, the higher thrust versions. There are more A321neo delayed than A320neo, especially because there are more A320 produced than A321. We will see improvment in the delivery performance in XFW, when more A321 are getting delivered.
A frame having an engine may mean nothing, if it has to be swapped. Engine swaps may be delayed, because of insufficient engine repair capacity.
One point in regards to XFW could also be, that XFW is the place where the ship sets for both BMF and TSN are collected to be shipped. Perhaps XFW is keeping all trouble at home, so some shortage bites less anywhere else.
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sciing
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Post by sciing on Mar 30, 2019 23:39:56 GMT 1
There are no more A321 delayed than A320. There are only XFW frames delayed even CEOs. So I am little bit lost to understand why this should be an engine issue.
Engine issue would mean gliders. I have not seen any stored glider in last months.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
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Post by mjoelnir on Mar 31, 2019 9:47:52 GMT 1
There are no more A321 delayed than A320. There are only XFW frames delayed even CEOs. So I am little bit lost to understand why this should be an engine issue. Engine issue would mean gliders. I have not seen any stored glider in last months. Air Transat first A321LR to be delayed by four to six weeks blueswandaily.com/air-transat-first-a321lr-to-be-delayed-by-four-to-six-weeks/quote: Air Transat president Jean-Francois Lemay said Airbus expects a four to six week delay in deliveries of the carrier’s initial A321LR, due to issues related to the enginesAir Transat first LR, I assume the one with the engine trouble is MSN8755. PW1133G engines, must than be the only frame with engine trouble according to you? Engine trouble does not need to mean gliders, but missing exchange engines, if the delivered engines are not good enough. There just was an A321neo that had to stop on its delivery flight waiting quite a while for a new engine. They are also very few A321neo with LEAP engines, both normal and AFC, getting delivered. 11 so far this year. There just was talk on a.net, that Alaska have trouble with the LEAP on their 8 A321neo being unreliable. When we compare A321neo to A320neo standing around, I hardly see a A320neo frame delayed for technical reasons. A320neo for LATAM, MSN8140, 8172, 8495, 8596, 8635 not delivered, not delayed by Airbus 3 of them in TLS. A320neo for Spirit, MSN7788, hardly delayed by Airbus, or has it changed designated owner again? A320neo for Astana, MSN8483 I do not know what is with that frame, but there is also an old A321neo standing around for them. So if your hypothesis is trouble in XFW production, my hypothesis is continuing engine problems, especially with the high thrust versions. Production trouble in XFW, if in the pre FAL, should impinge on all FALs not only in XFW, but it could perhaps be, that XFW keeps parts needing rework in XFW. |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
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Post by philidor on Mar 31, 2019 11:16:27 GMT 1
More and more A321neo should have an ACF fuselage. I don't think we can rule out the possibility that ACF fuselage production is still holding A321neo deliveries.
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Post by stealthmanbob on Mar 31, 2019 11:33:45 GMT 1
Don't forget A321's are not made in Toulouse or TSN ! The vast majority then 90+ % are made in XFW, so any A321neo ACF production / parts
problems would effect XFW the most !
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