philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jul 11, 2013 17:16:57 GMT 1
I don't think that we already have a thread to discuss Doric's still to be firmed A380 order, announced at the Paris air show (if we have, please merge !). Doric's plans initially seemed a bit mysterious, and some sceptics dismissed the project either as unsound or as a guise for a future EK order. We now have more information about Doric's plans. According to Bloomberg, they intend to offer existing A380 operators TG and MH early delivery slots (2015), as existing operators already have a defined cabin layout. www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-11/doric-may-take-airbus-a380s-early-in-deals-with-existing-users.htmlIf Bloomberg has it right, and if this comes true, it will be a a remarkable success for the A380, since success was far from granted for such small operators (see the Thai Airways A380s thread). Once again, customer satisfaction appears to be a major A380 trump. Likewise, Doric seems on track to solve the 2015 A380 delivery issue mentioned earlier this year. Altogether, the Doric deal therefore seems to be more and more important to Airbus ... We also learn from Bloomberg that Airbus supports Doric with an interior change fixed price guarantee, and with a favourable pre-delivery payments scheme. I would like to know your views about the whole Doric project. EDIT : XWB was quicker than me, and he posted the Bloomberg link in the "new customers" thread. Yet I believe that a specific Doric thread is justified.
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Post by FabienA380 on Jul 11, 2013 17:54:10 GMT 1
Altogether, the Doric deal therefore seems to be more and more important to Airbus ... It IS ultra-important, I suspect that Airbus started the deal with lessors actually and eventually reached an agreement with one. I have no doubt that this recipe will work, and I am confident that many airlines in a near future will ask lessors some help in order to operate some A380s. Examples of new operators through lessors I think will be first competitors of operators who already have the A380 or will have it soon: Japan Airlines and/or ANA, some Chinese airlines?, some Russian airlines? ...and might secondly open new markets, particularly in the US. This formula with Doric proving itself in the future, I will also expect other lessors to order more A380 directly from Airbus. Though, if it garantees some future more successes of the A380, I would also imagine that the 'ennemi' (Boeing) might be interested in doing the same with its parallel product (B748)... Fabien
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sean
in Convoy en route to Toulouse
Posts: 96
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Post by sean on Jul 15, 2013 12:58:59 GMT 1
Another very important point is that the unique financing structure Doric has set up for these aircraft is in line with Islamic Banking principles.
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Post by addasih on Jul 18, 2013 1:31:12 GMT 1
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Post by eastmids13 on Jul 18, 2013 10:26:11 GMT 1
Personally I don't agree with him! Disappointed with Virgin as I'd definitely use a Virgin A380 from UK to US & I reckon it would cream the competition on LHR/MAN to Orlando!
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on Jul 18, 2013 14:47:08 GMT 1
Personally I don't agree with him! Disappointed with Virgin as I'd definitely use a Virgin A380 from UK to US & I reckon it would cream the competition on LHR/MAN to Orlando! I agree. Why does he think that it's surprising to hear Airbus is upgrading the A380? Airbus has still not defined what these upgrades are and the A380 could be around 15 years old - not a young plane as he says - by the time these upgrades come. The 777 went through an upgrade only 9 years after EIS.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jul 18, 2013 17:14:57 GMT 1
Richard Aboulafia has been an early and steadfast A380 sceptic. He has long argued that the plane goes against market trends and will be a financial failure.
His latest letter displays unquestionable consistency. He dismisses Doric's plans as ill-founded speculation with other people's money. He also sees Airbus showcasing the Doric MoU at Le Bourget as additional evidence of a complete absence of demand for the aircraft from operators and from experienced aircraft lessors, and predicts that the order will never be firmed.
He has some good points : speculation is rife in the aircraft leasing business, and Doric is certainly no exception ; the A380's overall market is still small, hence to-morrow's secondary market may be very narrow, which is indeed a threat to resale values.
Aboulafia's analysis however lacks any balance. He seems blinded by some anti-A380 passion, and refuses to acknwledge any demand at all for the aircraft. For instance, he has the following disparaging comments on Doric's plans : "presumably, they also have plans to profit by picking up the large numbers of 20 euro notes that people routinely leave lying on the pavement in Frankfurt".
Let's allow Doric more time to close a few leasing agreements, and we'll see if Aboulafia was right or, hopefully, not.
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Post by addasih on Jul 22, 2013 17:34:52 GMT 1
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Post by a380fanclub on Jul 25, 2013 17:34:33 GMT 1
As explained by John Leahy at PAS13, the Doric agreement should tease airlines that do not operate the A380 thus far in doing so. I think Garuda Indonesia could very well opt for leasing through Doric in stead of buying if they decide on the A380 or 747-8I bij the end of the year. It saves them money and Garuda seems interested in a no-frills version that can easily be reconfigured from two to one class. For a leasing company that makes sense to, as it is more economical for them to have an aircraft that is no-frills either. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the aircraft that Doric plans to take will end up with Emirates of Singapore, which already have leasing agreements for a few of their A380's.
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noistar
Final Assembly Line stage 2
Posts: 388
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Post by noistar on Jul 26, 2013 0:07:43 GMT 1
For what it's worth, I would have assume that Doric thought long and hard before making their decision.
The potential negatives were surely taken into account so Doric must be expecting significant returns on what is a substantial investment.
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