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Post by vlafollower on Sept 16, 2013 16:01:11 GMT 1
Mr. Scott Hamilton, a north american aviation analyst and consultant states "Airbus predicts a market of nearly 1,700 passenger and cargo airplanes in the Very Large Aircraft (VLA) category in its new forecast issued this year. Boeing forecasts 960 VLAs in its market outlook issued last year. Each prediction is for a 20-year period, or 2027 for Boeing and 2028 for Airbus." The citation comes from a March 2013 post on Leehamnews.wordpress.com. The numbers may have changed slightly since that post but not by much.
Any thoughts and rationale on whose forecast is more realistic and credible? This dichotomy is perplexing to an outside observer; and follower of this market segment.
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Post by addasih on Sept 16, 2013 16:08:26 GMT 1
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Post by peter on Sept 16, 2013 16:14:13 GMT 1
I think Mr. Scott Hamilton is only trying to rescue his income as an "aviation analyst". There are simply too many "analysts" and "consultants" in the aviation industry. The world's economy is by large unpredictable. Orders placed tomorrow may be cancelled the day-after. Don't let your ears hang low to those wise-guys
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Post by vlafollower on Sept 16, 2013 16:18:34 GMT 1
Good to find this forum. I adore the A380 and have followed it's development since @ 2002. I forgot to mention that I would like any informed thoughts on relative market share in this market between the A380 and B747. I read somewhere that the A380 is currently capturing @ 90% market share for this niche segment even though they have a 50% market share in their current VLA forecast. Any thoughts on future relative market shares - A380 vs. B747?
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Sept 16, 2013 16:26:35 GMT 1
Welcome to the forum, vlafollower !
20 years forecasts are always unreliable. In this case, they are probably skewed by company interests. Both companies' numbers look suspiciously high, as befits a seller' forecast. Airbus in particular can be suspected of releasing self-serving numbers to paint o rosy picture of A380 prospects.
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Post by vlafollower on Sept 16, 2013 16:29:09 GMT 1
Peter - At least Mr. Hamilton is more circumspect, objective, and more balanced than say Mr. Richard Aboulafia. Aboulafia has been attacking the A380 and the business case for the A380 for as long as I can remember. He is like a "junk yard dog" when he waxes vitriolic - about the "whale-bus" (sp?) as he calls it. But this observation is off-topic. Hamilton also does a decent job as a "journalist" summarizing new developments in the industry. Can't speak to his skills as a consultant.
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Post by peter on Sept 16, 2013 16:35:36 GMT 1
Welcome to the forum, vlafollower ! 20 years forecasts are always unreliable. In this case, they are probably skewed by company interests. Both companies' numbers look suspiciously high, as befits a seller' forecast. Airbus in particular can be suspected of releasing self-serving numbers to paint o rosy picture of A380 prospects. Boeing has the same habit. From a recent press release: Nothing firm either
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Post by vlafollower on Sept 16, 2013 16:54:48 GMT 1
As far as inflating forecasts - in my opinion - both OEM's early on when they are quoting various pieces of the airplane - to drive down unit prices; and they may continue inflating projections of aircraft sales - to minimize the per aircraft non-recurring costs that are charged to each a/c. No one would admit to either practice though. They just build a case for either scenario - and state "to the best of our knowledge and belief and based on our opinion".....and no one can prove intent to inflate...one of the reasons I search for some reasonable number that describes the VLA market and relative market shares.
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Post by vlafollower on Sept 17, 2013 0:10:06 GMT 1
Airbus is as guilty of missing forecasts as Boeing. A classic was the A340-500/600. Initial baseline quotations went out with @ 450 to 500 aircraft - life of the program. Airbus eventually sold @ 140 aircraft over the life of the program. ETOP's and the B777 killed that platform. Even a wizard would not have predicted that technical development. I worked on the intitial A340, sub-tier, and the subsequent models, sub-tier. I also was involved with the B-747 during the early stages when Pratt Whitney ruled the B747 Skies. I still love the A380. GE's CF680 was a great engine for the B747 as well. Dating myself but it was a heck of a ride.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Sept 17, 2013 10:05:05 GMT 1
Whether the relaxation of ETOPS rules could have been predicted is a very big question. Airlines wanted to be allowed to use direct routes, and the increased reliability of engines was there for all to see. The only question was when this would translate into new rules ...
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