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Post by vlafollower on Sept 17, 2013 17:12:56 GMT 1
Philidor - Good point - but the FAA & EASA are very difficult to attach a timeline to when it comes to adopting improved or new technologies. There is a tremendous amount of inertia. Nothing could have been more false than the saying "4 engines 4 long haul" as it turned out.
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Post by Flying Dutchman on Sept 17, 2013 19:37:28 GMT 1
No one can predict the airline industry 20 years in the future.
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Post by peter on Sept 17, 2013 19:58:35 GMT 1
Philidor - Good point - but the FAA & EASA are very difficult to attach a timeline to when it comes to adopting improved or new technologies. There is a tremendous amount of inertia. Nothing could have been more false than the saying "4 engines 4 long haul" as it turned out. Those last four words are exactly what I meant
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Post by vlafollower on Sept 18, 2013 16:19:46 GMT 1
"Rolls-Royce forecasts demand for approximately 750 VLAs between 2012 and 2031. The Japan Aircraft Development Corporation forecasts 675 VLAs will be sold through 2031. Airbus forecasts market demand for an estimated 1,300 VLA aircraft. Boeing forecasts ~790 VLA orders.
Airbus’ number might be ambitious, but averaging the other three forecasts we have an expected market of 738....The market could easily exceed the 738 average forecast."
The quote above is from a Jan 2013 post on Air Insight. An Addison Schonland was the author. It would appear that Rolls And JADC have a more realistic VLA forecast. And according to Scott Hamilton - the A380 is currently riding high with almost a 90% market share in this VLA niche market.
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Sept 18, 2013 16:21:53 GMT 1
One small note: Airbus forecast it with freighters included, while Boeing's forecast is without.
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Post by vlafollower on Sept 19, 2013 2:42:03 GMT 1
Thanks - did not pick up on the freighter component. Need to dig deeper with my analysis.But @ 35 per year over he next 20 years seems a much more reasonable number than - Airbus proposes - Leahy is a great sales guy but he is not a magician; and he has to be getting close to retirement. Met him in Toulouse one time, he is the "ideal" in the perfect sales guy. His wife was absolutely charming. With all due respect, she looked like a lady that would have attended Woodstock back in the day - hippy-like. Right on Sister Leahy!!!
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Sept 23, 2013 10:18:02 GMT 1
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Sept 23, 2013 10:19:44 GMT 1
Airbus will announce its 2013-2032 forecast on Tuesday.
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Post by vlafollower on Sept 23, 2013 16:02:59 GMT 1
XWB - Thank you for the article you referenced. Very detailed and interesting synopsis of Mr. Leahy's career with Airbus. He is a "Sales Superstar". I was familiar with a lot of the content. One of my favorite books describing "Boeing vs Airbus" was a book by the same name - authored by John Newhouse. For those readers that are commercial aerospace "junkies" - it is an excellent read. "Birds of Prey" by Matthew Lynn is a good read also, describing this commercial aerospace duopoly.
I will look forward to the 20 year forecast tomorrow. I do not expect it to vary too much from last years forecast in the VLA segment. Mr. Leahy does tend to be overly optimistic but he does deliver!!
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Sept 24, 2013 10:48:23 GMT 1
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