Post by marlibu on Dec 7, 2020 15:27:57 GMT 1
www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/06/the-scariest-thing-in-boeings-10-year-forecast/
in 2018, Boeing delivered 806 commercial jets: 580 737s and 226 wide-bodies. Meanwhile, Airbus delivered 800 jets: 646 narrow-bodies and 154 wide-bodies.
Airbus' current narrow-body backlog equates to an average of more than 700 annual deliveries between 2021 and 2029: more than what it delivered in 2018. Boeing's current backlog wouldn't even support an average of 400 annual 737 deliveries. Since there are potentially fewer than 3,000 additional orders up for grabs for narrow-body deliveries this decade, the aircraft manufacturer would need to capture a disproportionate share of that business to get back to building nearly 600 737s annually.
Getting even 50% of the incremental order volume could be challenging. Airbus' A220 is smaller than the smallest 737 MAX model, giving it lower trip costs, while the A321XLR has significantly more range than any 737 MAX. Thus, Airbus addresses market segments that Boeing doesn't participate in today. Additionally, Irkut and COMAC are virtually guaranteed to capture additional orders because of their status as national champions. COMAC in particular is poised to tap into the enormous Chinese airline market.
As for wide-bodies, even if Boeing's forecast is accurate and it maintains a modest market share advantage, annual deliveries would remain firmly below its 2018 tally. Barring some unexpected event that causes a rapid shift in the market share landscape, Boeing will struggle to make a full recovery from the double-whammy of the 737 MAX grounding and COVID-19 pandemic.
in 2018, Boeing delivered 806 commercial jets: 580 737s and 226 wide-bodies. Meanwhile, Airbus delivered 800 jets: 646 narrow-bodies and 154 wide-bodies.
Airbus' current narrow-body backlog equates to an average of more than 700 annual deliveries between 2021 and 2029: more than what it delivered in 2018. Boeing's current backlog wouldn't even support an average of 400 annual 737 deliveries. Since there are potentially fewer than 3,000 additional orders up for grabs for narrow-body deliveries this decade, the aircraft manufacturer would need to capture a disproportionate share of that business to get back to building nearly 600 737s annually.
Getting even 50% of the incremental order volume could be challenging. Airbus' A220 is smaller than the smallest 737 MAX model, giving it lower trip costs, while the A321XLR has significantly more range than any 737 MAX. Thus, Airbus addresses market segments that Boeing doesn't participate in today. Additionally, Irkut and COMAC are virtually guaranteed to capture additional orders because of their status as national champions. COMAC in particular is poised to tap into the enormous Chinese airline market.
As for wide-bodies, even if Boeing's forecast is accurate and it maintains a modest market share advantage, annual deliveries would remain firmly below its 2018 tally. Barring some unexpected event that causes a rapid shift in the market share landscape, Boeing will struggle to make a full recovery from the double-whammy of the 737 MAX grounding and COVID-19 pandemic.