ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Feb 7, 2016 12:44:45 GMT 1
Yes we need to watch to see if any more passenger versions get scheduled for final assembly. As things stand there are no 'credible' outstanding orders still to be scheduled. LN 1540 has still not been identified as a -8 or a -8F. Boeing are obviously trying to get more orders but it won't be easy. Geoff So if I understand it correctly we can expect deliveries (outside VC25?) to: 8i 5x Korean 8F 1x Cargolux 1x Cathay 1x Korean 2x Silkway And there are stored frames 8i 3x (LH + 2xTN) 8BBJ 1x Qatar 8F MSN18 - whyatever we call it. So the stored situation with 8i seems hopeless, I doubt the NTU LH frame will go out. But as it seems only 1x 8F. Anyway this year + VC25 and that is it.
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Post by FabienA380 on Feb 7, 2016 14:50:14 GMT 1
As much as I of course would prefer to see orders for A380s than for B747-8Is, I would still be willing to see orders for the B747-8I.....
Could Boeing force (offering preferential prices) anyone to order it?.... (top up Air China's order for example)..
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 8, 2016 14:02:04 GMT 1
Not-taken-up 748s must be the real bargain, so I expect them to be grabbed soon.
As regards new frames, they must already be offered at rock-bottom prices, and I doubt Boeing is ready to build more just to sell them at a loss. Boeing also has to sell more 777Ws, which are essential to the bottom line.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Feb 8, 2016 17:33:39 GMT 1
There are 5 in storage.
The freighter has not been taken by ABC so I expect it will never be sold.
The oldest passenger version is a test frame which was rejected by Lufthansa. Likely to stay in the desert.
The stored BBJ was originally for Abu Dhabi. Maybe it will go for outfitting at some stage. Boeing still show it as an 'unfilled order'.
The two built for Transaero have not been stored for long and hopefully will be found 'a home'.
Geoff
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Post by ff on Feb 8, 2016 20:01:36 GMT 1
The MoU with ABC was for upto 20 8F, and ABC is expecting to take 3 frames per year. Plus the small amount of unfilled orders, at 0.5/month rate, as I predicted before, Boeing should be able to keep the 748 production alive until the VC25 coming to production line - the second VC25 probably will be the last 748 ever.
Air China top up, not in the near future, when US Navy is discussing the possibility of base a second carrier in Asia and the presidential election result is unclear.
The one country to save 748 would be Iran, if Boeing is, as reported, in discussion with Iran, then all white tail and the frames in the desert will have no problem to find a new home in very near future, especially they can be delivered much quicker than A380s.
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Post by airboche on Feb 9, 2016 9:29:17 GMT 1
How about long lead items? They must order certain parts well ahead of time to feed expected production during the next years. 0,5 must be the lowest possible rate. Too bad the global cargo outlook is so weak these days. I hope the 747-8 stays alive.
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Post by ff on Feb 9, 2016 10:23:06 GMT 1
Boeing must have negotiated with all suppliers for 748, and Boeing is happy to pay for all parts at 0.5 rate, even if that means some white tail. They knew the VC-25 is a must, it brings in more marketing benefit and honour than few billion pounds would do.
10 in production line, 18 from ABC (if they really taking all remaining 18 at very low rent from Boeing Finance), should be enough to keep the production line going for at least 4 years. And eventually, the white tails will find home in ABC or Iran.
The next few years, 748 project itself would be a calculated lost, but huge honour with VC-25.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 9, 2016 14:36:33 GMT 1
They knew the VC-25 is a must, it brings in more marketing benefit and honour than few billion pounds would do. Usually, government/defense contracts bring Boeing a large profit margin, 'glory' is on top. I expect them to earn good money building Presidential aircraft.
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Post by stealthmanbob on Feb 9, 2016 14:58:04 GMT 1
They could make themselves a couple of B747-8f Dreamlifters !
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Post by ff on Feb 10, 2016 15:54:03 GMT 1
"The market consensus is for Boeing's 747 production to end after completing the Air Force One requirement, with investment bank Credit Suisse predicting a 2018 fourth-quarter programme termination."
Probably earlier than we thought, but prediction has been made by Credit Suisse.
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