sciing
in service - 1 year
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Post by sciing on Apr 14, 2016 17:53:17 GMT 1
6 months is not unrealistic if the time between P18 and Roll out is reduced to reasonable values. Also the time between roll out and delivery is at the moment jeopardized by supply issues. 2 months FAL, 2-3 months "rework", paint and S20, 1-2 month flightline and delivery center is something I would expect as target till years end for a frame with MSN6x. It is still longer than the final target after ramp.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Apr 16, 2016 0:45:59 GMT 1
Looking at MSNs and the target of 50 deliveries in 2016, I reckon ;
1 delivery below MSN 21 ( MSN 12 ) already delivered in 2016.
1 delivery above MSN ( MSN 24 ) delivered in 2015.
All frames up to MSN 67 have entered Final Assembly.
2 in Final Assembly are A350-1000 prototypes.
So 67-20 =47 add 1 minus 1 and minus 2 gives 45.
To meet the 50 target, 5 more MSNs are needed MSN68 to MSN73 ( minus 1 further A350-1000 prototype ).
So if all customer frames up to and including MSN73 are delivered the target of 50 is met.
Geoff
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tris06
Final Assembly Line stage 1
Posts: 209
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Post by tris06 on Apr 26, 2016 4:20:43 GMT 1
Looking at current frames going into FAL it seems they should get to MSN75 by no later than the 20th of May with MSN 80 entering FAL (s50) maybe the 1st/2nd week of June.
So it will be around 7 months to complete the frame yes a tough ask but its still possible. I have my bet on 55 frames being delivered. Though thats also because others too the lower slots before me. Lets hope I am close.
The good question will be if those delays in deliveries will delay the whole program. I think getting the toilets solved was a bigger plus than getting the business class seating solved (has not yet been resolved). As atleast airlines not using that particular buiness class seating will hopefully be sent through FAL while the others wait.
Another good thing is having rework decrease. If it can dissapear by September it might bring a wave of deliveries in Christmas.
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Post by FabienA380 on Apr 26, 2016 9:20:12 GMT 1
Well we are at the end of April, that is 1/3 of the year already gone, and only 6 deliveries.... My bet for 2016 was 32 deliveries but could Airbus at least reach 25?.......
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Post by avest005 on Apr 26, 2016 10:03:35 GMT 1
Well we are at the end of April, that is 1/3 of the year already gone, and only 6 deliveries.... My bet for 2016 was 32 deliveries but could Airbus at least reach 25?....... Suppose so. It takes a while before the ramp up is visible in terms of deliveries. I expect an increased delivery rate starting end of June.
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Apr 26, 2016 10:08:01 GMT 1
Well we are at the end of April, that is 1/3 of the year already gone, and only 6 deliveries.... My bet for 2016 was 32 deliveries but could Airbus at least reach 25?....... You're assuming deliveries will stay flat during the year. Currently 3 A350s per month keep emerging from Station 20 to the flight line; there are now 8 fully finished A350s on the flight line. The delivery stream will have to catch up, sooner or later...
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Apr 26, 2016 10:21:26 GMT 1
plus than getting the business class seating solved (has not yet been resolved). Business class seating mainly affects Cathay Pacific. It's a custom made seat for which CX asked last minute changes to the design.
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sciing
in service - 1 year
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Posts: 2,502
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Post by sciing on Apr 26, 2016 10:28:04 GMT 1
Sorry, but this is not in any way a suitable extrapolation! Iit is not quite complicate to do a suitable one with the all data we have collected. My worst case assumption would be that production time stays as slow as it is, 10 months between S50 and delivery. Even in this case we would see deliveries up to MSN 57, that means at least 37. Each month lower lead time 4-5 frames more, as the loading was quite stable the last months. And as time you need to consider the one of the latest loaded.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Apr 26, 2016 20:36:14 GMT 1
Fabien we will for sure see considerable speed up towards the end of the year
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henge
Final Assembly Line stage 2
Posts: 346
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Post by henge on Apr 27, 2016 1:27:45 GMT 1
Well, FabienA380 didn't put a smiley in his post, but I still suspect he wasn't entirely serious with the 25 deliveries... We all know that currently frames are stacking up at TLS, and the pace of deliveries should eventually pick up.
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