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Post by FabienA380 on Nov 3, 2016 23:45:45 GMT 1
75 A320neo in 2016 sounds still high to me It doesn't only sound high to me, "75 A320neo in 2016" is pure illusion that will never ever happen. Roughly put, we are now at 33 deliveries in 308 days, => 33 deliveries in 10 months, how on Earth can Airbus reach another 42 deliveries in 58 days??........(42 deliveries in 2 months) |
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Nov 4, 2016 9:39:51 GMT 1
It doesn't only sound high to me, "75 A320neo in 2016" is pure illusion that will never ever happen. Roughly put, we are now at 33 deliveries in 308 days, => 33 deliveries in 10 months, how on Earth can Airbus reach another 42 deliveries in 58 days??........(42 deliveries in 2 months) I would not see a big problem, if Airbus would receive engines, enough frames standing around. 7 frames with P&W engines and 3 frames with LEAP engines have had there first flight. We could see quite a few deliveries the next days. We know or believe that P&W engines are slow coming in, but why do we not see more LEAP engines. 21 P&W frames delivered plus 7 flying that are 28 production frames with 56 engines in 11 month and only since June, 5 month, the revised engine. 15 LEAP production frames flying, 12 delivered, that are 30 production engines in 5 month, hardly big numbers either. |
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Nov 4, 2016 9:55:54 GMT 1
It doesn't only sound high to me, "75 A320neo in 2016" is pure illusion that will never ever happen. Roughly put, we are now at 33 deliveries in 308 days, => 33 deliveries in 10 months, how on Earth can Airbus reach another 42 deliveries in 58 days??........(42 deliveries in 2 months) Lot's of speculation, as usual. Airbus official target is 42 deliveries in Q4 (3 months, not 2). leehamnews.com/2016/10/26/airbus-results-depressed-continuing-delivery-delays/The CFM and upgraded P&W engine were certified in August, which allowed Airbus to ramp-up from September. |
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Nov 4, 2016 11:00:26 GMT 1
It doesn't only sound high to me, "75 A320neo in 2016" is pure illusion that will never ever happen. Roughly put, we are now at 33 deliveries in 308 days, => 33 deliveries in 10 months, how on Earth can Airbus reach another 42 deliveries in 58 days??........(42 deliveries in 2 months) Lot's of speculation, as usual. Airbus official target is 42 deliveries in Q4 (3 months, not 2). leehamnews.com/2016/10/26/airbus-results-depressed-continuing-delivery-delays/The CFM and upgraded P&W engine were certified in August, which allowed Airbus to ramp-up from September. The CFM LEAP was certified in Mai not August www.airbus.com/presscentre/pressreleases/press-release-detail/detail/a320neo-with-cfm-leap-1a-engines-receives-joint-easa-and-faa-airworthiness-type-certification/and the first frame with a LEAP engine was delivered on the 19/07/2016 to Pegasus. The delivery guidance for the A320neo from Airbus was first 100 and now 75 frames. If we want to do it with the percentage according to the quoted article, 20 % of 500 is 100 frames, 15 % of 500 is 75. 2/3 of the 100 frames were supposed to be with P&W GTF engines and 1/3 were supposed to be with CFM LEAP engines. We know all about the P&W troubles and the shortfall of about 80 engines, perhaps 30 to come until end of December, is explained. According to news there was no trouble with the LEAP, so it should have been no trouble to be able to deliver about 33 frames with LEAP engines until the end of December. To do this, there are still at least 40 engines missing until the end of December. There should be no problem for Airbus to deliver 42 A320neo until the end of December, there are enough frames standing around, if Airbus gets some engines from those engine manufacturers. Most of our post on this threads here are speculation. And my speculation now is, there is something serious wrong with the early ramp of the CFM LEAP engine too. |
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Nov 4, 2016 11:03:42 GMT 1
No, it won't be 75 deliveries. Percentages are just that, we should read it as 'about 15%'. Give or take a few.
Delivery guidance for Q4 is 42 aircraft, that's just how it is.
It's never that black/white. When companies use percentages they usually mean "about/some xx%".
Delivery guidance numbers from Airbus are far from speculation.
There are not enough engines to deliver 42 aircraft in 2 months, even if the assembly line is running much faster.
Again, it's 42 aircraft for Q4, including October. So we already had several deliveries in Q4. That leaves some 30 aircraft to be delivered in the remaining 2 months.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Nov 4, 2016 11:15:16 GMT 1
No, it won't be 75 deliveries. Percentages are just that, we should read it as 'about 15%'. Give or take a few. Delivery guidance for Q4 is 42 aircraft, that's just how it is. I seem to be able to read and use a calculator. 15% of A320 series frames delivered is 75, but that was for the whole year. You talk about 42 frames in Q4, 9 delivered that would leave still 33 frames until December the 31 and for the whole year 64 frames. That would also mean that with 33 frames delivered and 10 frames flying we would have to see at least 40 new engines until latest the middle of December 2016, from whatever manufacturer. |
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Nov 4, 2016 11:18:57 GMT 1
It means some 15%. In other words it's an estimate so it doesn't have to equal 75 aircraft.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Nov 4, 2016 11:25:42 GMT 1
There are not enough engines to deliver 42 aircraft in 2 months, even if the assembly line is running much faster. Again, it's 42 aircraft for Q4, including October. So we already had several deliveries in Q4. That leaves some 30 aircraft to be delivered in the remaining 2 months. So we are of the same opinion, there are not enough engines around. Airbus is waiting for engines, hardly news. We have one difference in the opinion, I believe that Airbus is not only waiting for P&W GTF engines, but is also waiting for LEAP engines. There are quite a few frames waiting for LEAP engines in long time storage, and half a year after certification the number of CTF LEAP is a trickle, just like the P&W GTF. |
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Nov 4, 2016 11:31:27 GMT 1
Indeed. And because they have to wait for engines, it's highly unlikely there will be 75 deliveries (a figure Airbus never confirmed BTW).
Yes the assembly line runs at 46-48 aircraft per month, but can't deliver them without engines.
Frankly I don't care so much for which vendor they have to wait, the point being it's highly unlikely that there will be 75 deliveries. Whatever the reason may be.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Nov 4, 2016 11:48:50 GMT 1
It means some 15%. In other words it's an estimate so it doesn't have to equal 75 aircraft. The flightglobal article is from the 26/10/2016 so hardly old information, Q4 already in full swing. His estimate for Q4 is 45 frames, giving with 24 delivered frames 69 for the year. And yes, he said below 15 %. But he also said that the guidance of 20% or 100 frames of 500 for 2016 included already snags with the GTF. So what is the reason for a further fall of A320neo deliveries? Only the GTF? Astonishing I find the number of 670 frames to be delivered in 2016, if we count 50 for the A350, 70 for the A330, 25 for the A380, that leaves 535 for the A320 series. We are at about 410 today, that leaves 125 frames until end of December. Those A320 series frames should be delivered in droves the next days and weeks. Does he count the A400M in the 670 number? That would still leave more than 110 A320 series to be delivered. |
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