cck
Final Assembly Line stage 1
Posts: 228 
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Post by cck on Nov 5, 2016 12:36:58 GMT 1
Hi All, I am new to this forum. Was searching around for A320neo deliveries data for few days but not happy with what I found until I found the great Google Sheet from this site and this post. Wish to share some info i noticed on LEAP engine. In Safran (CFM partner) financial reports, they actually highlighted over 40 LEAP-1A are delivered to AB before 25 Oct and may be even more now. Take away 12 A320-251N delivered, there are still 16 engines available for 8 airframes. It look more like engines are waiting to be installed instead of waiting for engine. Note that in the news link below, out of 40 engines, 22 were delivered in Q3, meaning that delivery on Oct is about 18. I think it should not be hard for CFM to deliver another 30 engines in this 2 months? www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/over-40-leap-1a-engines-delivered-safran-430698/ |
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cck
Final Assembly Line stage 1
Posts: 228
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Post by cck on Nov 5, 2016 12:45:39 GMT 1
btw, thank you Mario for the deliveries list, it look really great!
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Post by stealthmanbob on Nov 5, 2016 13:36:20 GMT 1
Post #1 delivery #33 the delivery date is wrong.
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Post by stealthmanbob on Nov 5, 2016 14:16:58 GMT 1
Welcome on board cck , enjoy your flight with us ! Could we have your country of residence for our members by country thread ? |
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Nov 5, 2016 14:28:35 GMT 1
Hi All, I am new to this forum. Was searching around for A320neo deliveries data for few days but not happy with what I found until I found the great Google Sheet from this site and this post. Wish to share some info i noticed on LEAP engine. In Safran (CFM partner) financial reports, they actually highlighted over 40 LEAP-1A are delivered to AB before 25 Oct and may be even more now. Take away 12 A320-251N delivered, there are still 16 engines available for 8 airframes. It look more like engines are waiting to be installed instead of waiting for engine. Note that in the news link below, out of 40 engines, 22 were delivered in Q3, meaning that delivery on Oct is about 18. I think it should not be hard for CFM to deliver another 30 engines in this 2 months? www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/over-40-leap-1a-engines-delivered-safran-430698/There are also 3 test frames taking up 6 engines. 40+ delivered engines on October the 25th, 6 engines for test frames, 20 engines for 10 than delivered frames, 10 engines for 5 than flying frames, would give 4 perhaps 6 engines to be podded and mounted of 40+ delivered, gives 2 to 3 frames in the process of getting engines. 22 engines in Q3 makes about 7 engines per month. At least 6 pieces before Q3 makes 28, that leaves 12+ engines delivered from 1st of September to the 25th of October, a delivery speed of about 8 engines per month. Hardly impressive numbers and somehow a corroboration of my talk about slow ramp up at CFM too. Looking at P&W: 3 frames used as test frames, 6 engines, I expect problem engines to have been rebuild. 8 frames delivered before and including June, 16 engines. 12 frames delivered July through October the 25th 24 engines 9 frames flying on the 25th 18 engines. Perhaps 4 engines getting podded and mounted. That makes it about 46 engines, new or rebuild, delivered June to October, 5 month, assuming no ramp because of the blade situation, means 9 engines per month and that has been defining slow. edited numbers |
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cck
Final Assembly Line stage 1
Posts: 228
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Post by cck on Nov 5, 2016 14:50:06 GMT 1
Hi All, I am new to this forum. Was searching around for A320neo deliveries data for few days but not happy with what I found until I found the great Google Sheet from this site and this post. Wish to share some info i noticed on LEAP engine. In Safran (CFM partner) financial reports, they actually highlighted over 40 LEAP-1A are delivered to AB before 25 Oct and may be even more now. Take away 12 A320-251N delivered, there are still 16 engines available for 8 airframes. It look more like engines are waiting to be installed instead of waiting for engine. Note that in the news link below, out of 40 engines, 22 were delivered in Q3, meaning that delivery on Oct is about 18. I think it should not be hard for CFM to deliver another 30 engines in this 2 months? www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/over-40-leap-1a-engines-delivered-safran-430698/There are also 3 test frames taking up 6 engines. 40+ delivered engines on October the 25th, 6 engines for test frames, 20 engines for 10 than delivered frames, 10 engines for 5 than flying frames, would give 4 perhaps 6 engines to be podded and mounted of 40+ delivered, gives 2 to 3 frames in the process of getting engines. 22 engines in Q3 makes about 7 engines per month. At least 6 pieces before Q3 makes 28, that leaves 12+ engines delivered from 1st of September to the 25th of October, a delivery speed of about 8 engines per month. Hardly impressive numbers and somehow a corroboration of my talk about slow ramp up at CFM too. Looking at P&W: 3 frames used as test frames, 6 engines, I expect problem engines to have been rebuild. 8 frames delivered before and including June, 16 engines. 20 frames delivered July through October the 25th 40 engines 9 frames flying on the 25th 18 engines. Perhaps 4 engines getting podded and mounted. That makes it about 60 engines, new or rebuild, delivered June to October, 5 month, assuming no ramp because of the blade situation, means 12 engines per month and that has been defining slow. Hi mjoelnir, I suppose Q3 is July to September? Oct consider Q4? Also refer to Mario's chart, among 3 Leap-engined test frames, 2 of them having first flight on 2015, while 3rd (D-AVXB) on Feb 2016. I suppose at the most only 2 engines are for test frames? Anyway, i re-look into Safran first half and Q3 press release. in 1H2016, they delivered 11 engines, Q3 is 22 engines. 40-11-22= 7 engine deliveries on 1~24 Oct 2016. Your estimate is true. However, given that delivery rate is ramping up, another 20 engines deliveries i would think is reasonable. my previous est. of 30 is amazing, but hardly. |
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cck
Final Assembly Line stage 1
Posts: 228
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Post by cck on Nov 5, 2016 15:20:14 GMT 1
A quick check into CFM website, in their statement on 13 Oct, "Meanwhile, the company is making a smooth transition to LEAP engine production. CFM will produce around 100 LEAP engines in 2016, ramping up to more than 2,000 engines per year by 2020." Currently LEAP-1B is in flight test, LEAP-1C not yet in actual production line, so most of targeted 100 engines would be LEAP-1A. To make it, CFM need to ramp production rate up to 30 engines per month, possible? www.cfmaeroengines.com/press-articles/cfm56-reaches-record-production-rate-cfm-delivers-30000th-engine/ |
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cck
Final Assembly Line stage 1
Posts: 228
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Post by cck on Nov 5, 2016 15:32:52 GMT 1
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Nov 5, 2016 15:55:10 GMT 1
There are also 3 test frames taking up 6 engines. 40+ delivered engines on October the 25th, 6 engines for test frames, 20 engines for 10 than delivered frames, 10 engines for 5 than flying frames, would give 4 perhaps 6 engines to be podded and mounted of 40+ delivered, gives 2 to 3 frames in the process of getting engines. 22 engines in Q3 makes about 7 engines per month. At least 6 pieces before Q3 makes 28, that leaves 12+ engines delivered from 1st of September to the 25th of October, a delivery speed of about 8 engines per month. Hardly impressive numbers and somehow a corroboration of my talk about slow ramp up at CFM too. Looking at P&W: 3 frames used as test frames, 6 engines, I expect problem engines to have been rebuild. 8 frames delivered before and including June, 16 engines. 20 frames delivered July through October the 25th 40 engines 9 frames flying on the 25th 18 engines. Perhaps 4 engines getting podded and mounted. That makes it about 60 engines, new or rebuild, delivered June to October, 5 month, assuming no ramp because of the blade situation, means 12 engines per month and that has been defining slow. Hi mjoelnir, I suppose Q3 is July to September? Oct consider Q4? Also refer to Mario's chart, among 3 Leap-engined test frames, 2 of them having first flight on 2015, while 3rd (D-AVXB) on Feb 2016. I suppose at the most only 2 engines are for test frames? Anyway, i re-look into Safran first half and Q3 press release. in 1H2016, they delivered 11 engines, Q3 is 22 engines. 40-11-22= 7 engine deliveries on 1~24 Oct 2016. Your estimate is true. However, given that delivery rate is ramping up, another 20 engines deliveries i would think is reasonable. my previous est. of 30 is amazing, but hardly. Where did I say October is Q3? That still makes it about 7 engines a month in Q3, july, August , October. And it means still only 12+ engines in the whole of September and 25 days of October. |
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Post by addasih on Nov 5, 2016 16:18:54 GMT 1
Hi mjoelnir, I suppose Q3 is July to September? Oct consider Q4? Also refer to Mario's chart, among 3 Leap-engined test frames, 2 of them having first flight on 2015, while 3rd (D-AVXB) on Feb 2016. I suppose at the most only 2 engines are for test frames? Anyway, i re-look into Safran first half and Q3 press release. in 1H2016, they delivered 11 engines, Q3 is 22 engines. 40-11-22= 7 engine deliveries on 1~24 Oct 2016. Your estimate is true. However, given that delivery rate is ramping up, another 20 engines deliveries i would think is reasonable. my previous est. of 30 is amazing, but hardly. Where did I say October is Q3? That still makes it about 7 engines a month in Q3, july, August , October. And it means still only 12+ engines in the whole of September and 25 days of October. I believe because you mentioned the engines of the test frames which were delivered before 3Q |
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