The announcement that delivery of six EK EK A380 is being put off until next year is not easy to translate into production numbers. One reason is that we don't know whether EK is talking of calendar years or fiscal years. Another reason is that we don't know exactly how many EK deliveries were planned just before the changes were made.
Sciing pointed out out that there are 13 EK frames in production in XFW and TLS. We don't know how many more will be convoyed to TLS before next summer, especially since Airbus may cancel some convoys.
Anyhow, it would be consistent to see six almost completed whalejets being stored until next year. Whether the ex-Skymark frames will be delivered in 2017 is another question.
It is difficult to judge if the information about deferrals is new or a rehash of earlier announcements or decisions. The decision to go to a one frame per month production had already been made earlier. My idea about A380 deliveries to Emirates in 2017, was once around the same number of frames as in this year, about 20 frames. Deferring 6 would mean deliveries of 14 EK A380 in 2017. That would mean all frames in production, 13, plus one frame to be convoyed. That would mean about together with other airline's frames 20 frames delivered in 2017, that would be in line with earlier announcements this year. The reduction to 12 frames a year could be sometime in the year 2018, so we see perhaps 15 to 17 frames in 2018 overall, before it drops to 12 frames in 2019. That could mean the last QR frame, 2 SQ frames, perhaps an ANA frame and 12 frames for Emirates in 2018. It is difficult to stretch the crystal ball further.
I think the total for A380 deliveries stands at 206 against the official total orders of 319.
Unfortunately 49 of the unfulfilled orders are generally accepted as 'zombies' and will never be fulfilled. If you then consider that Emirates will not take delivery of the last 25 of the 142 they have on order until or unless an improved A380 is available, then we get down to 39 outstanding orders.
If we say 15 in 2017, then 12 each in 2018 and 2019 then A380 production would then need to shut down unless Airbus can somehow gain more orders, which currently looks unlikely.
Could Airbus shut down A380 production in 2019 and then reopen the line for an neo after a break of several years ?
I think some people have very low expectations on the number of A380 deliveries to EK. The first problem is the year. Emirates accounting year does not start with the years end but I think on the first of April and ending on the 31st of March. How many A380 were expected in the 2016/2017 accounting year and how many A380 were expected in the 2017/2018 accounting year. Are all A380 for the 2016/2017 accounting year delivered? There are 4 frames in XFW MSN221, 228, 229 and 232. There are 10 frames in TLS MSN162, 167, 234, 236, 238, 239, 240, 241, 242 and 244. All together 14 frames that could be delivered by September this year if the speed would not decrease.
I know that there were originally 25 frames planed for sometime around 2020/2021 when the 50 frame A380 order was made, but we have seen an acceleration of orders since than. My expectation for 2017 were 17 to 21 frames for EK in the calendar year. So perhaps after deferral of 6 frames 11 to 15. I can not really believe we will see less than the 14 frames delivered that are currently occupying XFW and TLS.
There are 4 frames in XFW MSN221, 228, 229 and 232. There are 10 frames in TLS MSN162, 167, 234, 236, 238, 239, 240, 241, 242 and 244. All together 14 frames that could be delivered by September this year if the speed would not decrease.
I'm not the only one counting 14. I guess FabienA380 forget the MSN 162+167.
O.k. so what was the target for this year, 20 or 25? So it is now 14 or 19? 6 other as mentioned in the 1st post, so something between 8 to 13 for EK, right? Or even plus 2 for Ex-Skymarks, sums up to 10 or 15.
We had 25 convoys last year. So is 15 the number for EK?