United Airlines (24 A321neos)

When United orders the XLR, I think the NMA is officially dead. 737 replacement coming next.

I would not link so closely the future of the NMA and UA's decision to buy the XLR.

UA is buying that sub-type to replace many of its 757s, not its 767s. The NMA, on the other hand, would be a widebody, which in spite of Boeing's marketing speeches would not have much chance of being used on a wide scale to replace narrowbodies.

Though admittedly the prospects of a NMA launch look bleak, that had been the case for a while. UA's decision per se doesn't change the NMA programme prospects, in my opinion.

Being a widebody, the NMA never stood a chance to replace 757s, or any other narrowbody for that matter (except possibly on some special routes). Only Boeing's marketing was trying to make us believe in that outcome. A narrowbody replacing widebodies on some routes would be more credible.

That's why I don't think UA's order is changing the situation.

Of course, airlines bought into it ! They said they would buy the NMA if it was cheap enough, preferably hardly more expensive than a narrowbody ... Likewise, I would be ready to buy a Porsche at the price of a regular car, and I would even accept to pay 15 % more !

The global trend, however, is an increase in narrowbody use, a decrease in widebody use. The NMA might have slowed that trend, but it would not have reversed it.

Boeing's plan was never to replace 757s by NMAs : there are few of them left, and even fewer on transatlantic or equivalent routes, while anyhow the NMA would not be competitive against the A321neo on these routes . That was only the marketing speech !

The plan was to create (or, rather, re-create) a small widebody market by introducing a modern product into a market space deprived of modern offerings. You can call it a 767, A300 or A310 successor if you like, but even 767 replacement wasn't a central target (again, there are few of them left). Boeing's bet was that a lack of modern competitive offerings in that market segment was suppressing a potential demand that would thrive as soon as a modern product would be available. The NMA would also complement the 787-800 to kill the A330, and make it difficult for Airbus to launch a successor.

The main problems with that plan was probably not market size, but pricing. The NMA had to be much cheaper than the 787, which required very low production costs. Such costs appear to have been out of reach so far. On the other hand, low prices would have created a risk of cannibalising the 787 market ... 

For the reasons outlayed above, I have always held - and still hold - a skeptical view of the NMA. I don't think, however, that UA's 757 replacement choice matters much, since there was no way the NMA could have been an acceptable candidate.