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Post by stealthmanbob on Sept 14, 2021 22:11:36 GMT 1
I used irony. The article sounds so upbeat. If you look at the numbers. 400 frames on stock when reentering service. That seems to have included 200 white tails. 169 delivered, I assume not all white tails. Anyway, why do deliveries do not get into gear? December to August are 9 month, that makes the average monthly delivery about 19 frames. With a 16 frames production rate the stock is hardly coming down in numbers. Multiple reasons. But most of what Bob said was on point. Most ? Which bit was not ? |
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Post by ca350 on Sept 14, 2021 22:39:59 GMT 1
Multiple reasons. But most of what Bob said was on point. Most ? Which bit was not ? The mods to the older ones  I meant its part of the reason, but Boeing does have the bandwidth to re work frames if and only if the airlines will accept them. So I would say the rework effort is not bottleneck. |
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Sept 15, 2021 1:57:32 GMT 1
I used irony. The article sounds so upbeat. If you look at the numbers. 400 frames on stock when reentering service. That seems to have included 200 white tails. 169 delivered, I assume not all white tails. Anyway, why do deliveries do not get into gear? December to August are 9 month, that makes the average monthly delivery about 19 frames. With a 16 frames production rate the stock is hardly coming down in numbers. Multiple reasons. But most of what Bob said was on point. The biggest reason is overall slowdown in demands, the overall recovery from Covid isn't what people and airlines expected to be. If airlines can defer stuff from Boeing easily because of the whole MAX grounding issues, why would they accept the frames in a hurry when their demand is not there? From the stored frames perspective, Boeing is only able to mostly get the frames destined for US airlines moving, and a handful of foreign ones like RYR, THY, FDB, etc. Most of the other foreign airlines seem to not be in a hurry which is understandable. Also about a third of the stuff at MWH and LTS at BFI are for the Chinese. Good luck clearing that out in years. Another issues is that potentially some customers demand new builts over the re-worked frames, SCAT took a new build in stead of a stored one at MWH which could becomes a NTU. There's reason to think that not only SCAT is doing that. Some points. If the biggest reason is overall shut down of demand, why than are the A320 family deliveries at a much higher rate? If airlines take newly builds instead of stored frames, the number of white tails should not come down. As any rejected frame becomes a white tail. The reasons have to be with Boeing and the MAX, IMO MAX customers are overall slow to accept frames. |
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Post by ca350 on Sept 15, 2021 3:57:59 GMT 1
Multiple reasons. But most of what Bob said was on point. The biggest reason is overall slowdown in demands, the overall recovery from Covid isn't what people and airlines expected to be. If airlines can defer stuff from Boeing easily because of the whole MAX grounding issues, why would they accept the frames in a hurry when their demand is not there? From the stored frames perspective, Boeing is only able to mostly get the frames destined for US airlines moving, and a handful of foreign ones like RYR, THY, FDB, etc. Most of the other foreign airlines seem to not be in a hurry which is understandable. Also about a third of the stuff at MWH and LTS at BFI are for the Chinese. Good luck clearing that out in years. Another issues is that potentially some customers demand new builts over the re-worked frames, SCAT took a new build in stead of a stored one at MWH which could becomes a NTU. There's reason to think that not only SCAT is doing that. Some points. If the biggest reason is overall shut down of demand, why than are the A320 family deliveries at a much higher rate? If airlines take newly builds instead of stored frames, the number of white tails should not come down. As any rejected frame becomes a white tail. The reasons have to be with Boeing and the MAX, IMO MAX customers are overall slow to accept frames. Airbus is trying really hard to stick to the promised delivery date for A320 families, making it very hard for airlines to defer or get out of the contract. There are articles about how Lufthansa wanted to defer deliveries but Airbus won't let them as they ask to follow the contract. Boeing on the other hand is hitting those contractual "get frees" as days go by where airlines could just walk out of the contracts with no obligations cause of the long delay. If Boeing could stick to the promised delivery dates, you'll be able to see multiple airlines getting "forced" to take frames. As for replacement frames, I'm sure those are just a small number of airlines that demand that, whereas the bigs like UA and AS are taking NTU frames in bunches. Latest development is UA taking the RwandAir and Lucky Air -8 white tails whereas AS taking the Samoa, SunExpress and Corenden -9 white tails. That's how the white tail numbers have come down. |
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Sept 16, 2021 2:59:27 GMT 1
Boeing on the other hand is hitting those contractual "get frees" as days go by where airlines could just walk out of the contracts with no obligations cause of the long delay. If Boeing could stick to the promised delivery dates, you'll be able to see multiple airlines getting "forced" to take frames. 737MAX deliveries have yet to reach 600, that is while A320neo family deliveries are getting nearer to 2,000 (1895 end of August). Meanwhile A320neo are getting delivered at double the rate of 737MAX. And the delivered A320neo do not go directly into storage. Rather we see stored frames go into operation. I do not believe in the forcing the customers to take their frames is the main driver behind the higher numbers at Airbus. Boeing doles out compensation as discounts on frames yet to be ordered, so customers have to take frames to get the compensation. As for replacement frames, I'm sure those are just a small number of airlines that demand that, whereas the bigs like UA and AS are taking NTU frames in bunches. Latest development is UA taking the RwandAir and Lucky Air -8 white tails whereas AS taking the Samoa, SunExpress and Corenden -9 white tails. That's how the white tail numbers have come down. exactly, just 180 degrees to your former argument. |
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someone
in service - 1 year
Posts: 3,333
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Post by someone on Sept 22, 2021 12:30:21 GMT 1
Trying to get both the MAX-split and math correct, this should then be the details for Boeing's 22 August deliveries
737-800/p-8: 2
737-MAX 8: 11
737-MAX 8200: 1
737-MAX 9: 2
767-300F: 1
767-2C: 3
777F: 2
YTD 2021 (YTD 2020)
737: 152 (11)
737-800: 11 (11)
737-MAX 8: 112 (0)
737-MAX 9: 29 (0)
747: 3 (1)
747-8F: 3 (1)
767: 21 (19)
767-300F: 13 (11)
767-2C: 8 (8)
777: 16 (14)
777-300ER: 5 (2)
777-200LR: 1 (0)
777F: 10 (12)
787: 14 (42)
787-8: 2 (4)
787-9: 12 (29)
787-10: 0 (9)
Total: 206 (87)
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Post by stealthmanbob on Sept 23, 2021 10:03:09 GMT 1
The B737 2021 YTD numbers don't add up to 152 only 151 ! someoneYTD 2021 (YTD 2020) 737: 152 (11) 737-800: 11 (11) 737-MAX 8: 111 (0) 737-MAX 9: 29 (0) |
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someone
in service - 1 year
Posts: 3,333
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Post by someone on Oct 18, 2021 13:34:22 GMT 1
35 deliveries in September. And trying to get the split and math correct  737-800/P-8: 1 737-8: 14 737-8-200: 7 737-9: 5 747-8F: 1 767-300F: 2 767-2C: 1 777-300ER: 2 777F: 2 YTD 2021 (YTD 2020)
737: 179 (12)737-800: 12 (12) 737-MAX 8: 133 (0) 737-MAX 9: 34 (0) 747: 4 (2)747-8F: 4 (2) 767: 24 (20)767-300F: 15 (12) 767-2C: 9 (8) 777: 20 (15)777-300ER: 7 (2) 777-200LR: 1 (0) 777F: 12 (13) 787: 14 (49)787-8: 2 (4) 787-9: 12 (35) 787-10: 0 (10) Total: 241 (98) |
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Post by addasih on Nov 9, 2021 18:44:41 GMT 1
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Post by ca350 on Nov 9, 2021 18:47:31 GMT 1
A rundown on Boeing October deliveries.
MAX's
AerCap - 2 737MAX - Carribbean 9Y-ANT/BAR, both ferried to ATS at PAE, could be ntu'ed
AeroMexico - 2 737MAX - XA-CCM/CCC
AirCanada -1 737MAX - C-GEKH
CDB - 2 737MAX - GOL PR-XMT/U
RYR group - 6 737MAX - 9H-VUL/M/N/O SP-RZA/B
TUI - 2 737MAX - D-AMAB/OO-TMZ
Turkish - 1 737MAX - TC-LCH
United - 2 737MAX - N27263/N17264
P8's
RNoAF - 2 P8's - 169583(LN8911)/169584(LN8949), both FF in October and delivered to BDS
BBJ2
Government of Poland - LN 7152/7297
777F
Eva - B-16787
Fedex - N848FD
767F
Fedex - N280FE
747F
UPS - N630UP
KC46
BDS USAF - 19-46061, FF 10/18
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lmk if there's any error.
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