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Post by FabienA380 on Jun 6, 2014 12:43:28 GMT 1
I agree with XWB, MSN160 and MSN167 delivered this year is not a given at all. Especially that MSN162 stayed one month and a half at TLS after FF, and is still sitting now on the FL at XFW waiting for OF, as it arrived there 3 (three!) weeks ago  (=>MSN162 still planned for this year??...) Plans for QR is(was?) 3 A380s in 2014, and seeing how the situation is going with the 3 first ones now I would say it is most unlikely MSN160 to be delivered this year even if it would have the time (I think MSN160 was still sitting idle on the FL yesterday waiting for OF, 3 weeks as well after arrival at XFW......) About EK and according to the announces of new routes I would foresee MSN153 in June or early July, MSN154 early August, MSN157 August, MSN158 and MSN159 end of Sept/early Oct, MSN164 Oct or Nov, MSN165 Nov or Dec, MSN168 and MSN169 Dec  |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jun 6, 2014 14:17:59 GMT 1
We already started this interesting discussion before.
As regards MSN 160 (QR 4), I am quite confident that she is going to be delivered this year. Let me first remind you of her track record :
- she was convoyed in late January (suggesting delivery no later than early Q4 2014, or possibly earlier) ;
- she was rolled out at mid-April, becoming the fastest-built QR frame ;
- she had her first flight on May 14th (one month after rollout, as early as could be expected) and she landed back in TLS ;
- she was transferred to XFW five days later, even though the flightline there was pretty crowded (strongly suggesting a tight schedule) ;
- she has been waiting for an outfitting bay for 18 days, like other frames (no frame has bypassed her into an outfitting bay).
This track record strongly suggests a 2014 delivery. I know that this would go against previously published delivery dates, but it is a soft point. Delivery dates are easy to change , and often are. I can see no reason why a major operator enjoying a fast growth, building an A380 fleet to accomodate that growth, having received three frames only out of 10 (or 13) ordered, would leave the fourth one sit idle on the flightline for months instead of taking delivery. What is more, QR has a record of frequent changes, and already has changed previous A380 delivery dates.
MSN 167 (BC 2) is a different case. We have a new A380 operator with no previous widebody experience (just introducing A330s), and an awkward delivery schedule (first frame, MSN 162, in 2014 - 2nd frame, MSN 167,in 2015 - with a three months interval between their respective convoy dates) which does not seem to fit operating needs.
I think that delivering both frames in a shorter time span (not the other way around !) would help BC operations, but on the other hands the company may need more training time than the average new A380 operator. So, I really don't know what is going to happen. I see three different possible timelines :
- one frame in 2014, the other in early 2015 as planned, MSN 162 performing only short familiarisation flights this year ;
- both frames delivered this year to start serious operations quickly ;
- both frames delivered next year may also happen if the operator needs more time.
I do not believe in the third case, but both others make sense. I give MSN 167 a question mark.
EDIT : there is some delay in the start of BC A330 operations. This might prompt them to delay A380 operations as well, to avoid being overwhelmed.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959 
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Post by s543 on Jun 6, 2014 15:14:11 GMT 1
It is interesting concerning the EK frames - there is total agreement - 9 frames... and the timing ? ? We will see    |
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Jun 6, 2014 15:17:02 GMT 1
Actually Fabien - as I see it the betting on CONVOYS is very popular. We might start some betting on deliveries ? Simple would be how many deliveries next month - closed last day of the previous one. What do you think about it ? |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jun 6, 2014 15:53:44 GMT 1
Or which frame is going to be delivered next ?
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Jun 6, 2014 19:38:12 GMT 1
Philidor - I believe this would be obvious and complicated to set the deadline.....
I thought about which frames exactly - but again to evaluate it would be too much work....
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Post by FabienA380 on Jun 6, 2014 21:01:54 GMT 1
How about setting a poll in the second half of each month, for how many deliveries indeed for the forthcoming month?... I'm afraid if we do a bet game for deliveries as well, as times go anyone could still change their bets, making it a little complicated, and I think the poll is the easiest for me (I'm still doing nothing these months but I think I'll get busier from the end of September  ) |
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Post by peter on Jun 7, 2014 14:18:36 GMT 1
~ but I think I'll get busier from the end of September ) Yeah, as in trying to get some sleep  |
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Post by FabienA380 on Jun 13, 2014 15:39:50 GMT 1
As SKY won't then be delivered this year, removing one frame (MSN162) to the count of 30 would lead to just 29, so which frame will fill the gap to reach the 30, MSN160 for QR, or MSN171 for EK?... (I don't believe MSN170 would make it before year-end) |
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sean
in Convoy en route to Toulouse
Posts: 96
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Post by sean on Jun 13, 2014 19:40:28 GMT 1
As SKY won't then be delivered this year, removing one frame (MSN162) to the count of 30 would lead to just 29, so which frame will fill the gap to reach the 30, MSN160 for QR, or MSN171 for EK?... (I don't believe MSN170 would make it before year-end) If 30 will be delivered, my bet is on MSN171... |
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(=>MSN162 still planned for this year??...)
)
