The last news for EK for calendar year 2014 was 11 aircraft, so now coupled with alfamale's today's news, EK should receive up to MSN165 in 2014. That will be the 55th A380, very close (and still doable) to the original plan for EK to have the 58th in January 2015.
The ATDB list the following delivery months for EK:
MSN136: January 2014 MSN138: March 2014 MSN139: April 2014 MSN140: April 2014 MSN141: May 2014 MSN142: June 2014 MSN147: July 2014 MSN150: September 2014 MSN153: October 2014 MSN154: November 2014 MSN157: December 2014
With the new info that list would look something like that? MSN141 Jan MSN142 Mar MSN147 MSN150 Apr MSN153 May MSN154 Jun MSN157 Jul MSN158 Sep MSN159 Oct MSN164 Nov MSN165 Dec
MSN117 AF #10: Delivery planned for April 2014 MSN130 KE #9 : Delivery assumed for 2014 MSN150 EK #48 : Delivery planned for March 2014 MSN151 BA #6 : Delivery planned for March 2014 MSN152 OZ #1: Delivery planned for April 2014 MSN162 BC #1: Delivery planned for August 2014 MSN166 EY #1: Delivery planned for Q4 2014
I think MSN151 won't make it for March.
According to the last 2 BA frames MSN144 and MSN148, Airbus plans 9 months between BA convoys and deliveries.
IF MSN151 is convoyed this month (convoy 22), it won't apparently be ready before May. My guess is that it will not be be convoyed before September, so 9 months from September leads to June. I think then MSN151 has been pushed to end of 2014-Q2.
Jan 2014. MSNs 141 Feb 2014. MSNs 142 Mar 2014. MSNs 147
Given these delivery schedules, together with MSN146, it looks like Airbus is aiming at 36 weeks / 9 months between convoy and delivery:
> MSN141: May 11 to the end of January 2014: 36 weeks / 9 months > MSN142: May 23 to the beginning of February 2014: 36 weeks / 9 months > MSN146: June 22 to end of February 2014: 36 weeks / 9 months > MSN147: July 3 to March 2014: 36 weeks / 9 months
I recall from the previous forum that Airbus would reduce the time in XFW and eventually aim for a delivery of 8 months between convoy and customer handover. However, these plans were abandoned due to the wing cracks.
The above 4 A380s shows a time of 9 months but the number looks even lower for MSN149 and MSN150:
> MSN149: August 17 to end of March 2014: 32 weeks / 8 months > MSN150: August 28 (assuming convoy #22) to end of March 2014: 31 weeks / ~7.75 months > MSN151: September 6 (assuming convoy #23) to end of March 2014: 30 weeks / ~7.5 months
Now I think the delivery schedule for both MSN150 and MSN151 are unrealistic but even if we add 1 month slip to the schedule, we're still looking at an almost 9 months lead time.
Next we have the deliveries for April 2014: > MSN117: September 28 (assuming convoy #25) to end of April 2014: 31 weeks / 7.75 months
Same story, assuming the schedule slips into May, we're still looking at 8-9 months lead time.
Last but not least, May 2014: > MSN152: October 10 (assuming convoy October #1)* to end of May 2014: 34 weeks / 8.5 months
Being an HoV, MSN152 will likely need a bit more time so it might be on a convoy in Septemnber, or it won't make it for a May 2014 delivery. I think MSN152 will need a lead time of around 10 months, which is still very good for a HoV.
So either all the delivery schedules we have are wrong (weird?) or Airbus is indeed bringing down the lead time. This will be an interesting development to follow.
* October convoy schedule has not been published yet.
Indeed, in fact the original plans for 2013, at least for EK frames (last October, old forum), was a tiny 7 months between convoy and delivery... thing that did eventually not happen, most likely indeed because of the wing repairs.
About MSN151, I think it is now way too late for March. I would target a 2014-Q2 delivery for MSN151.
Last Edit: May 8, 2014 19:19:22 GMT 1 by FabienA380: modifyURLlink
I think there is no chance anymore for MSN117 to be delivered in April 2014.
The ever fastest frame is MSN116 with 35 weeks from convoy to delivery,
IF MSN117 is convoyed in CV2013/23, there will be only 34 weeks until the end of April. One could say why not, though
-these 35 weeks for the fastest frame did only occur once, -all fast frames coming after MSN116 would have spent 38+ weeks for EK frames, and 40+ for other operators, -the ever fastest AF frame is MSN099 with.... 50 weeks between convoy and delivery.
To me the earliest delivery for MSN117 could be at the very end of 2014-Q2, perhaps even more early 2014-Q3.