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Post by vlafollower on Jul 11, 2014 1:27:54 GMT 1
Back on topic - Boeing drops 20 year forecast for VLA's a la A380 and B747 "Boeing notched back its forecast for jumbo jets such as the Boeing 747 and Airbus A380. It expects airlines to need about 620 of those over the next 20 years, down from the 760 it forecast last year." Link is as follows: www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/10/us-boeing-forecast-idUSKBN0FF0W020140710I wonder if Leahy will follow suit.
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s543
in service - 2 years
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Post by s543 on Jul 11, 2014 7:14:18 GMT 1
It is funny if Boeing says to Airbus what they should do to beat Boeing - I do not believe Leahy will come with similar advice.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
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Post by philidor on Jul 11, 2014 12:09:21 GMT 1
All this only shows that such long-term forecasts are nothing but material for marketing pitches.
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Post by peter on Jul 11, 2014 20:30:51 GMT 1
All this only shows that such long-term forecasts are nothing but material for marketing pitches. Or getting your hopes up....
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on Jul 11, 2014 22:38:38 GMT 1
All this only shows that such long-term forecasts are nothing but material for marketing pitches. More than the marketing, it's about telling your company shareholders that your strategy is in line with the future requirements.
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someone
in service - 1 year
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Post by someone on Jul 12, 2014 11:36:55 GMT 1
620 over 20 years, is 31 per year. Consider I don't see the 747-8 to be going on for that many years, unless it suddenly starts to sell more than a few frames per year, this means tha A380 can continue it rates of about 30 aircrafts per year going forward....
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jul 12, 2014 11:44:06 GMT 1
Except that Boeing includes a number of (748) freighters in its own forecast ...
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Post by vlafollower on Jul 12, 2014 15:30:25 GMT 1
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Post by vlafollower on Jul 12, 2014 20:39:43 GMT 1
The following post from Leeham News - gets into the difference between Airbus's and Boeing's VLA Forecasts..including the freighter delta..... www.leehamnews.com/2014/07/10/boeing-sees-4-increase-in-aircraft-demand-in-next-20-years/#more-12336The following quote from that article by Mr. Hamilton intriqued me. It was the original thought beyond this topic on this site....."Airbus continues to forecast a 20 year sales of ~1,300 VLAPs, a forecast few outside Airbus takes seriously. The current A380 production rate of 3/mo mathematically computes to 720 A380s built during the next 20 years, a figure most observers also doubt."
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
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Post by mjoelnir on Jul 13, 2014 14:52:39 GMT 1
The following post from Leeham News - gets into the difference between Airbus's and Boeing's VLA Forecasts..including the freighter delta..... www.leehamnews.com/2014/07/10/boeing-sees-4-increase-in-aircraft-demand-in-next-20-years/#more-12336The following quote from that article by Mr. Hamilton intriqued me. It was the original thought beyond this topic on this site....."Airbus continues to forecast a 20 year sales of ~1,300 VLAPs, a forecast few outside Airbus takes seriously. The current A380 production rate of 3/mo mathematically computes to 720 A380s built during the next 20 years, a figure most observers also doubt." Boeing expects 640 VLA sales, including 200 Freighters at 10 a year on average, so they expect to produce 10 B747-8F each year for the next 20 years. Boeing expects to be able to raise the build rate for the B747-8 from 1.5 a month to 1.75 a month, that means 21 frames per year so Boeing expects to build 11 B747-8i and 10 B747-8F each year taking 420 of the 640 VLA on forecast, leaving 220, 11 a year for the A380. And that is reported without a comment to how realistic those ideas are. I would rather say that in the 1,300 VLA forecast from Airbus, with 50 % (650) being for Airbus with the A380 the most unrealistic idea is that there will be another frame/frames to fill out the other 650.
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