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Post by FabienA380 on Nov 10, 2014 23:55:42 GMT 1
I don't think it make more sense, on the contrary perhaps,
it'd be impossible to have 68 by March-2015 (if 2014's FY), and it'd be worse-impossible to have 68 by March-2016 (if 2015's FY), the latter probably meaning even fewer A380s than 11 in 2015...
If MSN171 and MSN172 delivered in 2015-Q1 =>59 in the fleet, would mean only 9 to be delivered from 2015-Q2 to 2016-Q1...
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Nov 11, 2014 0:21:51 GMT 1
The Bloomberg article talks about Emirates receiving 13 A380 during 2015 and having 68 A380 by the end of 2015.
There are three possibilities:
- MSN 169 and MSN 168 will be delivered in 2015.
- There will be 11 deliveries in 2015 and the 13 deliveries are wrong.
- The 13 deliveries in 2015 are right and we will see 70 A380 at the end of 2015.
My pick is the third possibility.
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Post by FabienA380 on Nov 11, 2014 0:49:31 GMT 1
The Bloomberg article talks about Emirates receiving 13 A380 during 2015 and having 68 A380 by the end of 2015. There are three possibilities: - MSN 169 and MSN 168 will be delivered in 2015. - There will be 11 deliveries in 2015 and the 13 deliveries are wrong. - The 13 deliveries in 2015 are right and we will see 70 A380 at the end of 2015. My pick is the third possibility. This 13 I guess comes from the 11 to be delivered in 2015 +MSN168MSN169 set for delivery this year, up from what they say now at 55 => 68  Though, this number 11 in 2015 would match an average of A380s Emirates would take every year until November-2017 where they are supposed to take #90 (11 in2015 => 68 at the end of 2015) (around 11 in2016 => 79 at the end of 2016) (around 11 in2017 => 90 at the end of November-2017). To me and with both these numbers (#90 and #68), it'd be impossible for Airbus to delivery 30 A380s neither in 2015 neither in 2016... Perhaps Airbus will push some other airlines to take more A380s in 2015 (UN2? QR6? BA11?), perhaps some frames set for 2014 will make it in 2015 (QR4? EK57?)... Perhaps MSN162+MSN167 would have a new owner (already A380 operator) and be delivered by the end of 2015? We still have now 7 or 8 frames to be convoyed before early May-2015, to be able to be delivered by the end of 2015: MSN192BA10 maybe MSN189QR6? MSN191EY5 MSN196UN2 EK: MSN187 MSN188 MSN190 MSN200 with still 3 convoys this year and 3 convoys for January... Perhaps Airbus will keep same numbers of convoys (around 30?) but convoy uncomplete frames, or perhaps Airbus might reduce the number of convoys at least from Feb-2015 to May-2015?... |
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steveh
In Parts Built
Flown on an A380 at last Thai Airways HKG to BKK HS-TUF 2nd March 15
Posts: 6 
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Post by steveh on Nov 11, 2014 6:05:18 GMT 1
According to Flight Global BA has brought forward an A380 delivery from the first quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2015.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Nov 11, 2014 9:29:04 GMT 1
All this is too far fetched speculation - are we able to speculate the 2014 deliveries ?
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Nov 11, 2014 9:46:56 GMT 1
I would not make too much out of these numbers. EK was trying to defuse US airlines' push for protectionnist measures, contending that they took nothing from their competitors, that they just grew the market. They probably deliberately understated their growth plans.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Nov 11, 2014 9:59:57 GMT 1
IMO one should not rely to much on one Bloomberg article. Even if there are some quotes of an EK representative, the number 68 could be a minimum, an at least, or a speculation by Bloomberg.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Nov 11, 2014 10:50:29 GMT 1
IMO one should not rely to much on one Bloomberg article. Even if there are some quotes of an EK representative, the number 68 could be a minimum, an at least, or a speculation by Bloomberg. Exactly - they probably do not know more than we do and we could this topic speculate nicely |
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Post by addasih on Nov 11, 2014 17:33:56 GMT 1
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Post by peter on Nov 11, 2014 17:55:14 GMT 1
Emirates newspaper states 14 new A380 till the end of 2015 That makes it still up to and including msn 200, a total of 68 |
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