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Post by ff on Jan 15, 2019 10:18:49 GMT 1
Just try to summarise second hand frames coming to the market in the next few years.
DS Aviation/ex-SQ: two available now, MSN8,10 (first two already going to be scarped) DS Aviation/AF: five frames, MSN40,49,52,67,117 (first two will be returned in 2019) MH: six frames, could be available anytime, MSN78,81,84,89,94,114 Doric/EK: first six frames coming off lease soon, MSN16,17,23,25,77,90 EK: 11,13,20,7,28,9,30,42,46,56,57 could all leave graduately, be replaced by new A380 joining the fleet (although at a very slow rate of production)
So there could be 20-30 second hand A380s hitting the market in the next 5 years, renovation and reconfiguration costs are the biggest concern for these birds to fly again.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jan 15, 2019 10:54:19 GMT 1
MH frames are very recent, and their future is sheer speculation. The airline has changed its plans many times, for lack of a buyer or lessee at an acceptable price, and officially intends to keep all six frames. I don't expect these frames to leave the MH fleet anytime soon.
EK A380s owned by the airline (I don't know how many of them there are or their MSN numbers) should remain in service for a few more years. As regards the first frames coming off lease in 2020 and beyond, we have no clue about EK's plans. As the airline makes good use of them, it may either return them to the lessor or negotiate a lease extension. Much depends on Emirates fleet plans : if they want to stabilise their fleet size (let alone reduce it), then they must return some frames to DORIC and replace them with newly delivered ones ; if they want to grow, then they should negotiate a lower lease price and extend its duration for a few more years. Dubai airport constraints may however not allow a larger fleet.
Even AF might be swayed by a better offer from its lessor, which might be made if part out value is not too high.
EDIT : of course, early-built A380 with bespoke wiring and much higher maintenance costs have higher odds of being scrapped than newer, more efficient frames.
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kronus
in service - 1 year
Posts: 3,206
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Post by kronus on Feb 1, 2020 10:12:53 GMT 1
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 1, 2020 14:09:56 GMT 1
The above story seems to be based only on information from Dr Peters group. It's far from clear that parting out will remain the most valuable decision, as market prices for parts will decrease when more parts are made available, and the A380 fleet is comparatively small.
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vhaq
Final Assembly Line stage 1
Posts: 267
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Post by vhaq on Feb 21, 2020 9:14:00 GMT 1
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Mar 4, 2020 16:17:01 GMT 1
It's quite interesting to read that Airbus hasn't given up on reducing reconfiguration costs.
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