henge
Final Assembly Line stage 2
Posts: 346
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Post by henge on Dec 9, 2014 3:54:05 GMT 1
I have a thought I would like to share regarding the board, and therefore second helios91 point 1).  I was thinking about the MSN guessing game, and how the recent tendency to follow MSN sequence on part of Airbus is somehow taking the fun out. 90% of members just follow the sequence to score safe points, while a few notorious individuals  persistently vote against all odds in the hope for a glorious lucky punch. To even that out, how about a slight change of rules for next year? I propose a system, where a vote for an out-of-sequence MSN (if it turns out to be correct) is awarded with N points, while a successful in-sequence vote just earns 1 point (as before). The number N could be determined by the number of convoys that followed the sequence so far - thus N would increase more and more during a long in-sequence stretch like we are experiencing at the moment, giving more incentive for players to go out-of-sequence. Like a lotto jackpot! |
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on Dec 9, 2014 7:15:26 GMT 1
I agree with henge that the betting game needs to get a little more interesting. How about a points system: MSN in sequence gets 1 point. MSN out of sequence gets 3 points. New Operator gets 5 points. Simples! |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Dec 9, 2014 10:29:56 GMT 1
I like Baroque's proposal, though the 5 points may be a one shot (Transaero), unless we see some commercial breakthrough from Airbus/Amadeo ...
Fabien, we should make a quick decision before everybody starts to bet on the first 2015 MSN.
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Post by FabienA380 on Dec 9, 2014 10:39:58 GMT 1
I'd globally agree with a rule-change and would tend to choose Baroque's proposal indeed, how about however just 1 (in sequence), 2 (out of sequence) and 3 (new operator)? |
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henge
Final Assembly Line stage 2
Posts: 346
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Post by henge on Dec 9, 2014 10:59:15 GMT 1
My first idea was something like that, but considering the recent long in-sequence runs, merely 2 points for an out-of-sequence vote won't be enough to change anything. Stubbornly betting on the sequence will still yield the maximum points in the end. Would 3 points be adequat? Or 5 points? I don't know. That's why I came up with the Jackpot idea...
I agree, however, that it's a bit complicated and difficult to explain brief and concisely.
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Post by FabienA380 on Dec 9, 2014 18:24:48 GMT 1
Okay for 1 3 and 5 points then ? (in sequence, out of sequence, and HoV?) |
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on Dec 9, 2014 18:42:49 GMT 1
Okay for 1 3 and 5 points then ? (in sequence, out of sequence, and HoV?) I'm cool with this system. However, how many points is an HoV that comes in sequence worth? 1 or 5? |
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grisu17
Final Assembly Line stage 1
Posts: 283
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Post by grisu17 on Dec 9, 2014 23:34:10 GMT 1
I think it is ok with 1 3 and 5 points. |
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959 
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Post by s543 on Dec 10, 2014 0:38:32 GMT 1
I am not smart enough to understand why you want to introduce this weird system. Please imagine we will have 50% of all planes for EK ! And the consequences.
Try to evaluate the 2014 results with this system - would there be some change in the final result ?
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henge
Final Assembly Line stage 2
Posts: 346
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Post by henge on Dec 10, 2014 3:56:35 GMT 1
That is beside the point! All participants realized that in-sequence convoys are so much more likely than out-of-sequence, that roughly 90% or so of people switched to always voting for in-sequence. Therefore, there was no more change in the yearly ranking table.
To get back some fun into the game, we need to get people to vote out-of-sequence more - thus get variety of votes and some action in the ranking. How to do that? People need some incentive to go out-of-sequence, that is, award more points if such a vote wins.
However, I still feel that even 5 points in such a case is not sufficient to even out the odds - the "always in-sequence voting" strategy will still prevail. Therefore, I still advocate the flexible "Jackpot" solution - even if it's a bit complicated.
In the post enumerating the next possible votes, @fabiena380 could announce something like:
"By now, the last N convoys arrived in sequence - next MSN in line would be for Airline X.
Possible bets for this convoy are Airline X for 1 point, or any other operator for N points!"
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persistently vote against all odds in the hope for a glorious lucky punch.
