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Post by kevin5345179 on Dec 18, 2019 15:49:02 GMT 1
IIRC Airbus only runs 11.5 M per year. So the avg should be close to 61 if they actually deliver 700 planes That 'eleven and a half' notion applies when you are talking about production rates in Toulouse (in Toulouse, fewer planes enter the FAL in the summer months, to take into account production worker vacations, but that is not true in other Airbus FALs). Of course, delivery rates are influenced by production rates, but only in a loose manner, and I don't see another way of talking about delivery rates than monthly averages. Anyhow, Airbus only provides monthly numbers. I don't know the present total production rate ; it is the sum of the rates on the different FALs, and it is changing as Airbus is ramping up. Your 61 per month must not be far from the truth, in my opinion. So what you are suggesting is Tianjin FAL doesn't take Chinese New Year vacation and Alabama doesn't take Thanksgiving or Xmas vacation ..... I'm not sure what's the biggest holiday in Germany but I'm certain there must be some. When I was grad student, my colleagues at Germany seem to have vacation over summer as well. Your theory doesn't apply at all ....... If you do 60 * 11.5 = 690 which is still reasonable number IMHO FYI, you forgot your A220 in your narrow body segment..... |
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sciing
in service - 1 year
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Post by sciing on Dec 18, 2019 16:50:47 GMT 1
Airbus is far away the 690 per year.
There are actually 620 1st flights this year. So I guess Airbus will miss that number by 50-60 frames.
~5/month, which is mostly caused by XFW being far away from the 30/month.
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mtrunz
delivered!
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Post by mtrunz on Dec 18, 2019 17:11:56 GMT 1
I'm sure Airbus is doing what they can to reach their target (for shareholder purposes), but I don't think it really matters this year, especially when the main competition is crippled in some way or another. As long as they come close that is good enough.
If I would be Airbus I would keep quiet on bragging how much they delivered in 2019 and instead focus quietly on how to make sure that they can keep up with the production overall.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
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Post by philidor on Dec 18, 2019 17:46:32 GMT 1
So what you are suggesting is Tianjin FAL doesn't take Chinese New Year vacation and Alabama doesn't take Thanksgiving or Xmas vacation ..... I'm not sure what's the biggest holiday in Germany but I'm certain there must be some. When I was grad student, my colleagues at Germany seem to have vacation over summer as well. Your theory doesn't apply at all ....... If you do 60 * 11.5 = 690 which is still reasonable number IMHO This issue has nothing to do with the length of individual vacations, but everything to do with industrial organisation. Not so long ago, most French factories, whether in aircraft production or other industrial fields, used to close in August. Though this is not true anymore at Airbus, social practice still induces a lower production rate in that period. That is the only reason to speak of an 'eleven and a half' year at Airbus. The same is not true in Airbus German factories, which produce aircraft at the same rate all-year round, a well-documented fact stated many times over the years by our German members. As Hamburg has three modern A320 family FALs vs an older one in Toulouse, you might reconsider your self-asserted claim that "[my] theory doesn't apply at all" FYI, you forgot your A220 in your narrow body segment..... I didn't forget it at all. I hate to quote myself, but you force me to do just that. I started from the narrowbody total : ".. To meet its revised guidance, Airbus should deliver some 700 narrowbodies (58 per month on average)". Then I deduced A220 deliveries to draw my own conclusions about A320 production : " As the A220 performance is about steady at 4 per month, the A320 family appears to be struggling to meet even its revised guidance (let alone earlier Airbus forecasts)". It is true that I didn't specifically point out that 58 minus four equals 54. Was it necessary ? |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
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Post by philidor on Dec 18, 2019 17:55:39 GMT 1
Airbus is far away the 690 per year. There are actually 620 1st flights this year. So I guess Airbus will miss that number by 50-60 frames. ~5/month, which is mostly caused by XFW being far away from the 30/month. I am afraid you may be right. What's concerning, in my opinion, is not that they may miss their target, it's that if they do, then they also missed the opportunity to correct their forecast when they made the recent revision. |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
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Post by philidor on Dec 18, 2019 18:04:26 GMT 1
I'm sure Airbus is doing what they can to reach their target (for shareholder purposes), but I don't think it really matters this year, especially when the main competition is crippled in some way or another. As long as they come close that is good enough. If I would be Airbus I would keep quiet on bragging how much they delivered in 2019 and instead focus quietly on how to make sure that they can keep up with the production overall. It matters to financial markets and to the management, if they have to issue a profit warning as a consequence of missing their delivery goal. So, it's far from just a question of bragging rights. |
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mtrunz
delivered!
Digital Aviation/Meteo Analyst
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Post by mtrunz on Dec 18, 2019 22:46:00 GMT 1
Today was quite a busy day: Over 20 Flights, 5 First Flights, 9 Deliveries, nearly 50 combined Test Flight hours. Lets get them out there! 😃 Here is today’s Airbus Timelapse in Europe: http://instagram.com/p/B6OdUZ2BqQy |
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Post by kevin5345179 on Dec 19, 2019 3:59:53 GMT 1
So what you are suggesting is Tianjin FAL doesn't take Chinese New Year vacation and Alabama doesn't take Thanksgiving or Xmas vacation ..... I'm not sure what's the biggest holiday in Germany but I'm certain there must be some. When I was grad student, my colleagues at Germany seem to have vacation over summer as well. Your theory doesn't apply at all ....... If you do 60 * 11.5 = 690 which is still reasonable number IMHO This issue has nothing to do with the length of individual vacations, but everything to do with industrial organisation. Not so long ago, most French factories, whether in aircraft production or other industrial fields, used to close in August. Though this is not true anymore at Airbus, social practice still induces a lower production rate in that period. That is the only reason to speak of an 'eleven and a half' year at Airbus. The same is not true in German Airbus factories, which produce aircraft at the same rate all-year round, a well-documented fact stated many times over the years by our German members. As Hamburg has three modern A320 family FALs vs an older one in Toulouse, you might reconsider your self-asserted claim that "[my] theory doesn't apply at all" FYI, you forgot your A220 in your narrow body segment..... I didn't forget it at all. I hate to quote myself, but you force me to do just that. I started from the narrowbody total : ".. To meet its revised guidance, Airbus should deliver some 700 narrowbodies (58 per month on average)". Then I deduced A220 deliveries to draw my own conclusions about A320 production : " As the A220 performance is about steady at 4 per month, the A320 family appears to be struggling to meet even its revised guidance (let alone earlier Airbus forecasts)". It is true that I didn't specifically point out that 58 minus four equals 54. Was it necessary ? there is a phrase in Chinese called "largest migrant in the world" for what happened in China every single Chinese New Year. People in China go to east coast to work and majority of workforce quit before the Chinese New Year and go home heading west. Yes, not taking vacation but quit the job.... In US, the winter break is organization based as well. Boeing has shutdown for winter break and good luck to pump out identical amount of jets during shutdown ... leehamnews.com/2019/12/16/boeing-hiring-for-key-mechanic-roles-even-as-production-cuts-rumored/ |
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shpeex
spotted unpainted on the Flight Line (waiting for painting)
Posts: 1,141
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Post by shpeex on Dec 31, 2019 13:08:24 GMT 1
If my calculation is correct, as of today we have 124 deliveries. Maybe some batch of contractual ones.
So, we have something around 850 frames this year.
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Post by fanairbus on Jan 1, 2020 9:20:33 GMT 1
In anybody's book this is surely a good result considering that suppliers have had issues e.g. engines. I agree that quiet increase, product refinement and innovation get better results than commercial shouting; a lesson that I believe CEOs across the globe will begin to learn over the next decades together with focus on the environmental consequences in all aspects of R&D and production.
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