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Post by fanairbus on Dec 6, 2019 9:35:01 GMT 1
860 (target) - 725 = 135 deliveries due for December. Surely not! In any event only the total no. that is safely possible - for test pilots, workers etc. - should be delivered. Don't go down Boeing's track that the market makers are the gods and to be obeyed at any cost.
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Post by ff on Dec 6, 2019 9:58:49 GMT 1
860 (target) - 725 = 135 deliveries due for December. Surely not! In any event only the total no. that is safely possible - for test pilots, workers etc. - should be delivered. Don't go down Boeing's track that the market makers are the gods and to be obeyed at any cost. December delivery:
2018 - 127 2017 - 127 2016 - 111
It's on the way up year-on-year, not too far from 135 anyway.
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shpeex
spotted unpainted on the Flight Line (waiting for painting)
Posts: 1,141 
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Post by shpeex on Dec 6, 2019 9:58:56 GMT 1
860 (target) - 725 = 135 deliveries due for December. Surely not! In any event only the total no. that is safely possible - for test pilots, workers etc. - should be delivered. Don't go down Boeing's track that the market makers are the gods and to be obeyed at any cost. As of today 20 aircraft have already delivered. But we all remember the huge rush on second part of the last year's December. |
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someone
in service - 1 year
Posts: 3,336
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Post by someone on Dec 6, 2019 20:21:41 GMT 1
Didn't Airbus reduce the target?
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Post by ca350 on Dec 6, 2019 20:24:14 GMT 1
Didn't Airbus reduce the target? I believe 860 is already the reduced target, down from 880-890 projected from start of the year. |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Dec 16, 2019 19:16:20 GMT 1
I found Airbus' November delivery numbers disappointing, at least as far as the main product line, the A320 family, is concerned.
Airbus' revised yearly guidance (860 deliveries) is not officially broken down by aircraft family, but we can easily estimate the breakdown.
Prospects for widebodies are clear : Airbus has delivered 147 of them so far, and the yearly total should be < 165 and > 160. As a consequence, to meet its revised guidance, Airbus should deliver some 700 narrowbodies (58 per month on average).
I find it disappointing that no more than 60 narrowbodies were delivered in November, a month which according to Airbus' usual practice should be the second best of the year. As the A220 performance is about steady at 4 per month, the A320 family appears to be struggling to meet even its revised guidance (let alone earlier Airbus forecasts).
We were already aware of existing A321neo production problems ; has their fallout on delivery numbers been under-estimated by Airbus ?
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mtrunz
delivered!
Digital Aviation/Meteo Analyst
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Post by mtrunz on Dec 16, 2019 19:44:41 GMT 1
I was told at the end of summer that in TLS the 'year end assembly rush' is not as extreme the previous years but rather 'normal'. Maybe that has something to do with that.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
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Post by philidor on Dec 17, 2019 19:25:19 GMT 1
I was told at the end of summer that in TLS the 'year end assembly rush' is not as extreme the previous years but rather 'normal'. Maybe that has something to do with that. You're probably right, but there is a self-created outside pressure. Airbus could easily have lowered its forecast even more, making it more easy to reach the yearly target. Now, missing a recently revised forecast would raise a lot of questions. |
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Post by kevin5345179 on Dec 18, 2019 10:55:09 GMT 1
I found Airbus' November delivery numbers disappointing, at least as far as the main product line, the A320 family, is concerned. Airbus' revised yearly guidance (860 deliveries) is not officially broken down by aircraft family, but we can easily estimate the breakdown. Prospects for widebodies are clear : Airbus has delivered 147 of them so far, and the yearly total should be < 165 and > 160. As a consequence, to meet its revised guidance, Airbus should deliver some 700 narrowbodies (58 per month on average). I find it disappointing that no more than 60 narrowbodies were delivered in November, a month which according to Airbus' usual practice should be the second best of the year. As the A220 performance is about steady at 4 per month, the A320 family appears to be struggling to meet even its revised guidance (let alone earlier Airbus forecasts). We were already aware of existing A321neo production problems ; has their fallout on delivery numbers been under-estimated by Airbus ? IIRC Airbus only runs 11.5 M per year. So the avg should be close to 61 if they actually deliver 700 planes Ref: leehamnews.com/2019/12/02/pontification-a320-production-challenges-may-extend-to-2022-23/ |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Dec 18, 2019 15:09:56 GMT 1
IIRC Airbus only runs 11.5 M per year. So the avg should be close to 61 if they actually deliver 700 planes That 'eleven and a half' notion applies when you are talking about production rates in Toulouse (in Toulouse, fewer planes enter the FAL in the summer months, to take into account production worker vacations, but that is not true in other Airbus FALs). Of course, delivery rates are influenced by production rates, but only in a loose manner, and I don't see another way of talking about delivery rates than monthly averages. Anyhow, Airbus only provides monthly numbers. I don't know the present total production rate ; it is the sum of the rates on the different FALs, and it is changing as Airbus is ramping up. Your 61 per month must not be far from the truth, in my opinion. |
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