Post by mjoelnir on Jul 29, 2019 11:45:43 GMT 1
Several long delayed frames we can explain with customer deferrals in taking frames. Again I have to say, it does not matter that some newer frames are delivered, as Airbus does not keep to the MSN row.
If we look at the oldest undelivered frames, MSN8140 and MSN8172 two A320-271n for LATAM, we have the indication that LATAM is deferring the delivery dates for their frames all over. Furthermore this are P&W GTF frames, so could be touched by not having their engines yet refurbished.
Going to the next frame MSN8277, a A321-271 for Air Astana. Again an airline having been slow in taking their frames. Again a P&W GTF bird, just newly seen with engines, having been stored a long time without.
MSN8445 a A320-271 for GoAir. Again a P&W GTF bird. There can be something wrong with this frame, or Airbus is delivering rather the new frames coming right of the line with one and one of the old frames in the mix.
MSN8531 an A321-271NX for LATAM. LATAM has not taken delivery of any of their ordered A321neo.
MSN8547 and MSN8602 both A321-271 for Primera. I have not seen a picture of either of those two, I could not say if these frames have been produced, but I rather think they would have been, as they were that near the time to be delivered if Primera had not gone bust.
MSN8612 an A319-153NACJ I would assume that frame still being out fitted, ACJ take often a long time.
MSN8773 an A321-251NX for TAP. That is a frame I would accept that it could be likely to be something wrong with it. But it could also be a victim of late delivery of high thrust CFM LEAP engines.
MSN8774 an A320-251NACJ I would assume that frame still being out fitted, ACJ take often a long time.
MSN8776 an A321-271N for Sichuan. Seen with engines in February, in storage paint in April. Deferred or production problems. Regarding Sichuan, my guess would be deferred.
MSN8785 an A320-271N for GoAir the other old frame not yet delivered to them.
MSN8800 an A321-253NX for American Airlines. The only picture I have seen is without engines. Production problems or delayed high thrust CFM LEAP engines?
MSN8814 an A321-271NX for Lufthansa. Rather newly seen with engines and in full colours on June the 17th. I expect first flight and delivery soon.
MSM8822 an A321-322 for Delta. have not seen a picture with or without engines. That is the oldest ceo and the first candidate of a ceo having production problems.
MSN8829 an A321-253N for Alaska Airlines, working up to be delivered, had the third flight.
MSN8836 an A320-271N for Sichuan. Deferred?
MSN8837 an A321-271N for Astana. Also an airline having been slow to take delivery.
MSN8844 an A320-271N for Volaris. Working up, second flight done.
MSN8849 an A321-271N, working up, fourth flight. Again Sichuan has been slow in taking delivery.
MSN8851 an A320-251N for China Southern a candidate for a frame having something wrong with it.
MSN8861 an A321-251NX for Air Arabia. Something wrong or late delivery of high thrust engines?
MSN8864 an A320-271N for IndiGo. Just a leftover from the engine troubles or something wrong with the frame?
MSN8873 an A320-271N for Sichuan. Deferred, left over from engine trouble, or something wrong with the frame?
MSN8882 an A321-271NX for Wizz, working up third flight.
MSN8889 an A320-251N for Avianca. Seems to be ready for delivery since second of July, has been seen making runs with N762AV registration on the 23.07.19.
MSN8892 an A320-214 for Peach. Seen in full colours without engines in April. What is the contractual delivery date?
MSN8893 an A321-271NX for JetBlue. No picture, no flight. JetBlue is complaining about late delivery.
MSN8898 an A321-253NX for American Airlines. No pictures, no flights. American Airlines is complaining about late delivery.
If you look at the above list, there are only few candidates for trouble with the fuselage, many more where problems with engines delivery and refurbishment is more likely and quite a few frames where deferrals could play a role.
My information is still, that there are insufficient engine numbers for the delivery flow of all A320 family frames at Airbus. Insufficient numbers of high thrust engines would hit XFW hardest. I still have the opinion, that it is prudent to keep trouble at XFW, so we will see less of the problems at other sites.
I know that XFW had trouble to ramp up the #4 FAL. But that should not influence FAL #1 to #3 and they do 24 frames a month.
I have troubles believing that there are problems at the #4 FAL that lead to rework. The boring and riveting robots perhaps? But I have not even heard a rumor.
If we look at the oldest undelivered frames, MSN8140 and MSN8172 two A320-271n for LATAM, we have the indication that LATAM is deferring the delivery dates for their frames all over. Furthermore this are P&W GTF frames, so could be touched by not having their engines yet refurbished.
Going to the next frame MSN8277, a A321-271 for Air Astana. Again an airline having been slow in taking their frames. Again a P&W GTF bird, just newly seen with engines, having been stored a long time without.
MSN8445 a A320-271 for GoAir. Again a P&W GTF bird. There can be something wrong with this frame, or Airbus is delivering rather the new frames coming right of the line with one and one of the old frames in the mix.
MSN8531 an A321-271NX for LATAM. LATAM has not taken delivery of any of their ordered A321neo.
MSN8547 and MSN8602 both A321-271 for Primera. I have not seen a picture of either of those two, I could not say if these frames have been produced, but I rather think they would have been, as they were that near the time to be delivered if Primera had not gone bust.
MSN8612 an A319-153NACJ I would assume that frame still being out fitted, ACJ take often a long time.
MSN8773 an A321-251NX for TAP. That is a frame I would accept that it could be likely to be something wrong with it. But it could also be a victim of late delivery of high thrust CFM LEAP engines.
MSN8774 an A320-251NACJ I would assume that frame still being out fitted, ACJ take often a long time.
MSN8776 an A321-271N for Sichuan. Seen with engines in February, in storage paint in April. Deferred or production problems. Regarding Sichuan, my guess would be deferred.
MSN8785 an A320-271N for GoAir the other old frame not yet delivered to them.
MSN8800 an A321-253NX for American Airlines. The only picture I have seen is without engines. Production problems or delayed high thrust CFM LEAP engines?
MSN8814 an A321-271NX for Lufthansa. Rather newly seen with engines and in full colours on June the 17th. I expect first flight and delivery soon.
MSM8822 an A321-322 for Delta. have not seen a picture with or without engines. That is the oldest ceo and the first candidate of a ceo having production problems.
MSN8829 an A321-253N for Alaska Airlines, working up to be delivered, had the third flight.
MSN8836 an A320-271N for Sichuan. Deferred?
MSN8837 an A321-271N for Astana. Also an airline having been slow to take delivery.
MSN8844 an A320-271N for Volaris. Working up, second flight done.
MSN8849 an A321-271N, working up, fourth flight. Again Sichuan has been slow in taking delivery.
MSN8851 an A320-251N for China Southern a candidate for a frame having something wrong with it.
MSN8861 an A321-251NX for Air Arabia. Something wrong or late delivery of high thrust engines?
MSN8864 an A320-271N for IndiGo. Just a leftover from the engine troubles or something wrong with the frame?
MSN8873 an A320-271N for Sichuan. Deferred, left over from engine trouble, or something wrong with the frame?
MSN8882 an A321-271NX for Wizz, working up third flight.
MSN8889 an A320-251N for Avianca. Seems to be ready for delivery since second of July, has been seen making runs with N762AV registration on the 23.07.19.
MSN8892 an A320-214 for Peach. Seen in full colours without engines in April. What is the contractual delivery date?
MSN8893 an A321-271NX for JetBlue. No picture, no flight. JetBlue is complaining about late delivery.
MSN8898 an A321-253NX for American Airlines. No pictures, no flights. American Airlines is complaining about late delivery.
If you look at the above list, there are only few candidates for trouble with the fuselage, many more where problems with engines delivery and refurbishment is more likely and quite a few frames where deferrals could play a role.
My information is still, that there are insufficient engine numbers for the delivery flow of all A320 family frames at Airbus. Insufficient numbers of high thrust engines would hit XFW hardest. I still have the opinion, that it is prudent to keep trouble at XFW, so we will see less of the problems at other sites.
I know that XFW had trouble to ramp up the #4 FAL. But that should not influence FAL #1 to #3 and they do 24 frames a month.
I have troubles believing that there are problems at the #4 FAL that lead to rework. The boring and riveting robots perhaps? But I have not even heard a rumor.
