mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Feb 24, 2014 1:03:09 GMT 1
We know from Airbus' fairly recent comments on vacant 2015 slots that lead time is about two years. So, the pace of production cannot be changed before 2016 at earliest. Airbus' statements and the number of convoys in 2014 point to a stable rate (30 per year) for that period. Starting in 2016/2017, Airbus can adjust the numbers, depending on demand. I am sure they will if they take new orders or if EK wants to speed up deliveries, but I think all this is still moving. The vacant slots were mentioned before the new Emirates order. I am sure they offered them to Emirates after Emirates made the new order and I have difficulties believing Emirates wanting 25 of the new order + the 45 left from the old order before end of first quarter 2018 and not taking those two in 2015. I remind you that I was talking about 13 frames for Emirates in 2013, while quite a few insisted on that a lower number had been agreed upon and Airbus would not reach 25 deliveries in 2013. I never expected an increase in deliveries above 30 before 2016. 2016 is exactly what I have been talking about. It takes at least two years from starting on all the parts until delivery. The order from Emirates together with the order from Amedeo does change the whole calculation, especially because the 25 for Emirates before 2018, that is near future and starting in 2016 to deliver the first frame in Amedeo order means ordering the part for that or those frames now.
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kronus
in service - 1 year
Posts: 3,199
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Post by kronus on Feb 24, 2014 7:06:05 GMT 1
We know from Airbus' fairly recent comments on vacant 2015 slots that lead time is about two years. So, the pace of production cannot be changed before 2016 at earliest. Airbus' statements and the number of convoys in 2014 point to a stable rate (30 per year) for that period. Starting in 2016/2017, Airbus can adjust the numbers, depending on demand. I am sure they will if they take new orders or if EK wants to speed up deliveries, but I think all this is still moving. The vacant slots were mentioned before the new Emirates order. I am sure they offered them to Emirates after Emirates made the new order and I have difficulties Emirates wanting 25 of the new order + the 45 left from the old order before end of first quarter 2018 and not taking those two in 2015. I remind you that I was talking about 13 frames for Emirates in 2013, while quite a few insisted on that a lower number had been agreed upon and Airbus would not reach 25 deliveries in 2013. I never expected an increase in deliveries above 30 before 2016. 2016 is exactly what I have been talking about. It takes at least two years from starting on all the parts until delivery. The order from Emirates together with the expected order from Amedeo does change the whole calculation, especially because the 25 for Emirates before 2018, that is near future and starting in 2016 to deliver the first frame in Amedeo order means ordering the part for that or those frames now.
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kronus
in service - 1 year
Posts: 3,199
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Post by kronus on Feb 24, 2014 7:08:17 GMT 1
A380 EK delivery schedule acording to CAPA: 2014 6 frames 2015 13 2016 15 2017 25 2018 20 2019 16
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Feb 24, 2014 9:07:14 GMT 1
This figure can't be correct. We already have more frames in assembly.
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walter
in Body Join
Posts: 134
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Post by walter on Feb 24, 2014 9:27:01 GMT 1
A380 EK delivery schedule acording to CAPA: 2014 6 frames 2015 13 2016 15 2017 25 2018 20 2019 16 Guessing the frames on convoys will be boring 2016/2017 ;-)
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Post by FabienA380 on Feb 24, 2014 17:49:57 GMT 1
Do you please have a link kronus by any chance?... Fabien
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Feb 24, 2014 22:47:22 GMT 1
A380 EK delivery schedule acording to CAPA: 2014 6 frames 2015 13 2016 15 2017 25 2018 20 2019 16 There are 9 Emirates frames in various stages from convoy to finished outfitting and one already delivered, that makes ten already. I do not believe in 25 Emirates frames in one year. If the numbers are right, than the last frame only out of the new and the old order would be delivered in 2020. My guess would be: 2014 13 2015 15 2016 20 2017 20 1st quarter 2018 3 all together 71, 46 old order 25 new order. The second 25 of the new order later.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Feb 27, 2014 18:28:12 GMT 1
On A.net on the A380 production thread 15, KarelXWB said in reply 219: "Tom Enders today said that the Emirates order for 50 A380s will cover the problem with open slots in 2015." That would be an indication that the Emirates 50 frame order leads to increased deliveries to Emirates straight away in 2015.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 27, 2014 19:08:43 GMT 1
Yes, but that's not entirely new.
At the end of 2012 or early last year, on the old forum, many doubted, on the basis of a detailed analysis, that Airbus could find customers to accept even 25 A380s as forecast by Bregier. EK actually took 4 more than previously scheduled and Airbus did deliver 25.
So, you may well be right but that's a guess ... I hope you are !
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noistar
Final Assembly Line stage 2
Posts: 388
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Post by noistar on Mar 15, 2014 18:32:57 GMT 1
Following on from my observations of FAL processing, courtesy of A380_TLS_A350's pictures, in the MSN162 thread.
Movement from body join to FAL 1 depends on a FAL 1 bay being available. Likewise, movement from FAL 1 to FAL 2 depends on a FAL 2 bay being available. Am I right so far?
So, FAL transfer dates seem to show departures from 1 bay being quickly , sometimes instantly, filled by another frame to maintain the flow.
Question. While a frame is in body join waiting for a FAL 1 spot, can some FAL 1 work be done while it waits or does it just sit there delaying the next frame? Likewise can FAL 1 frames do some FAL 2 work while they wait?-Possibly not as per the pictures I've seen of post FAL 1 frames sitting on the flight line.
FAL processing seems to be to a very tight schedule - the fact that FAL 1 departures seem to be followed by a body join arrival while the 'seat' was still hot, would indicate this. I can give example frames/dates to indicate this.
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