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Post by ca350 on Feb 2, 2018 18:40:14 GMT 1
Exactly ! The HNA group as a whole is in the midst of a liquidity crisis. Creditors are optimistic because the group has a number of valuable assets that can be sold. What remains to be seen is whether the group is going to shrink in aviation or in other lines of business, like real estate. I don't really think HNA will shrink in its aviation business. The group claimed itself as a private firm but it's not hard to see it's backed up by the government. (Or partly). The province of Hainan has been definitely investing money on them, and Chinese banks like BOC, CDB, ICBC will only keep increasing their loan even though they all know these will only end up being bad debts. This is how communist works (kind of). Don't believe HNA will get into too much trouble myself. |
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Feb 2, 2018 18:43:56 GMT 1
Don't believe HNA will get into too much trouble myself. And yet new HNA deliveries are stalled, for now. |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 3, 2018 13:54:16 GMT 1
I don't really think HNA will shrink in its aviation business. Don't believe HNA will get into too much trouble myself. A liquidity crisis is pretty serious. Whether they like it or not, they have to sell assets very quickly if they want to stay in business. What is more difficult is to predict what exactly they can sell in the next weeks or months. Most of their assets are said to be real estate (hotels ...), and aviation. HK Airlines might well be for sale now. |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 4, 2018 1:54:17 GMT 1
From Spirit's Q4 2017 delivery data (posted by Sciing in the 'best selling widebody' thread), the company delivered 156 A320 shipsets to Airbus versus 133 737 shipsets to Boeing, which tends to show that Airbus' narrowbody production remains ahead of Boeing's, but not by much (a difference of 16 23 in a quarter, about 5 7 to 8 par month).
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Feb 4, 2018 10:35:12 GMT 1
From Spirit's Q4 2017 delivery data (posted by Sciing in the 'best selling widebody' thread), the company delivered 156 A320 shipsets to Airbus versus 133 737 shipsets to Boeing, which tends to show that Airbus' narrowbody production remains ahead of Boeing's, but not by much (a difference of 16 in a quarter, about 5 par month). 156 - 133 = 23 about 8 a month, that would have amounted to 92 a year difference between A32x and 737. The difference for Q4 2016 was 147 - 116 = 31 that would have amounted to 124 a year difference. The difference in deliveries was in 2017 558 - 529 = 29 and in 2016 545 - 490 = 55. or we could look at it this way: Boeing 2016. 116 * 4 would be 464 compared to 490 deliveries Boeing 2017. 133 * 4 would be 532 compared to 529 deliveries Airbus 2016, 147 * 4 would be 588 compared to 545 deliveries Airbus 2017, 156 * 4 would be 624 compared to 558 deliveries There could be different explanations. Q4 is especially high at Airbus only, because of the high delivery rate at the end of the year. Q4 is high at Airbus because of the ramp up, with increasing quarterly numbers through the year. Or there is a even bigger log jam at Airbus regarding deliveries than we see in the number of gliders, 100 frames somewhere stuck in the pipeline. It could be a mix of the above. |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 4, 2018 11:05:15 GMT 1
We cannot make shipset delivery match aircraft delivery numbers because we don't have steady flows, and because we don't know the average lead time between shipset delivery and aircraft roll-out (they are probably different at each FAL anyhow), let alone between shipset delivery and aircraft delivery. We can only observe production trends.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Feb 4, 2018 13:39:15 GMT 1
We cannot make shipset delivery match aircraft delivery numbers because we don't have steady flows, and because we don't know the average lead time between shipset delivery and aircraft roll-out (they are probably different at each FAL anyhow), let alone between shipset delivery and aircraft delivery. We can only observe production trends. All the same do shipset deliveries have to match aircraft deliveries in some way. In the end you can not deliver more frames than delivered shipsets and if you deliver fewer frames than shipsets, than you start to warehouse them. The look at the numbers for the 737 show that they about match. |
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mtrunz
delivered!
Digital Aviation/Meteo Analyst
Posts: 1,956 
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Post by mtrunz on Feb 7, 2018 12:04:52 GMT 1
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Post by stealthmanbob on Feb 7, 2018 13:14:08 GMT 1
With A320 monthly delivery numbers going up, don't forget that for every 45 new ones 30 odd go for scrap each month aswell. Here is another one HB-IJF A320 MSN 562 22+ years old, heading to St Athan for scrap this morning  |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Feb 7, 2018 14:16:30 GMT 1
PTF conversion orders are evidence of a rather recent surge in freighter demand.
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