ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Aug 4, 2013 10:58:56 GMT 1
Been looking at which widebody models have sold best and how this might evolve in years to come.
The 747 was the first and is still in production. 1470 have been delivered but there are only 53 remaining on order and its total of 1523 will probably not grow now.
The 777 has delivered 1113 and has a further 339 on order, making 1452. With further investment in new variants this total is likely to surpass the 747 soon.
The A330 has delivered 992 ( as of end June ) with 260 on order, making 1252. It will probably stay in production for another 10 years albeit that the rate will decrease as the A350 takes over. If ( and there is some logic for doing so ) you add in the A340 ( 377 ) you get a total of 1629, well ahead of the 747 !!
In the future the 787 and A350 will probably surpass all of the above but that could well be another 10+ years.
So for now the 777 looks set to take over from the 747 with the A330/340 having a brief spell at the top currently.
Current ( end of June 2013 ) figures are ;
A330/340 1629
747 1523
777 1452
Cheers
Geoff
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Oct 7, 2013 0:07:02 GMT 1
Updated figures for best selling widebodies (as at end September 2013 );
Model Delivered Orderbook Total Sales
A330/A340 1393 250 1643
747 1474 51 1525
777 1139 328 1467
767 1057 51 1108
787 89 890 979
A300/A310 816 0 816
A350 0 725 725
The 777 will probably overtake the 747 on the launch of the 777-8/9 and overtake the A330/A340 soon after.
I'll be interested to see if the orderbooks for the 787 and A350 continue to grow even though the leadtimes are already at 7+ years.
Geoff
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Oct 7, 2013 9:38:23 GMT 1
I expect both 787 and A350 breaching through the 2000 barrier over time.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Oct 7, 2013 12:15:42 GMT 1
I expect both 787 and A350 breaching through the 2000 barrier over time. I agree 2000 is definitely achievable, think the 777 will get there first though. Not sure about the A330/340 though, hard to predict how many more will be sold once the A350 is in service. A lot will depend on how fast Airbus produces the A350s, if the leadtime goes up to 10 years then an A330 in 2 years gets very attractive, financially, for airlines. What is the latest on production rates for the 787 and the A350 ? With orderbooks growing towards 1000 a production rate of 15/month could be on the cards. Geoff |
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Oct 8, 2013 13:37:35 GMT 1
Current year net sales ( end September ) are ;
A350 143
787 131
777 36
A330 22
747 0
767 0
A380 -3
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Oct 8, 2013 13:43:14 GMT 1
The A350 number is 182 if we include the October sales.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Oct 8, 2013 14:04:48 GMT 1
The A350 number is 182 if we include the October sales. I always like to wait until the end of the month when we get the 'official' figures direct from Airbus and Boeing. The A350 is certainly selling well at the moment. Geoff |
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Oct 8, 2013 14:05:13 GMT 1
Fair enough  |
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Oct 11, 2013 23:31:46 GMT 1
Been looking at the figures for actual models rather than 'families' and the best sellers ( deliveries plus unfilled orders ) are ;
777-300ER 711
A330-300 646
767-300ER 583
A330-200 577
787-8 498
A350-900 473
747-400 442
777-200ER 422
787-9 391
Suspect this sequence could change a lot over the next year or two. Maybe the A380-800 will get up to this level.
Geoff
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Oct 12, 2013 12:03:48 GMT 1
There may be a flaw when you list orders by sub-type : customers often have conversion rights inside the same 'family', and may remain flexible for a long time.
In that case, financial optimization may lead to lopsided numbers (an initial order for a smaller sub-type reduces your down payments). This trick is often used for narrowbodies, it might be used for widebodies as well.
Obviously, A358 numbers are presently not inflated, but A359 numbers might be (LH for instance has conversion rights to the -1000). More conversions to 789 from 788 may also happen.
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