ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Sept 30, 2015 17:01:01 GMT 1
A helpful analysis of the figures. Does look as though Airbus is doing a good job with the transition from A330-200/300 to A330-800/900. The situation with the 777 is very different because the EIS for the 777-8/9 is much further away and Boeing hasn't yet announced a cut in production rate. Open production slots are an opportunity for new orders but a significant production rate cut looks inevitable. Geoff |
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959 
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Post by s543 on Sept 30, 2015 20:18:09 GMT 1
It looks like they will have to cut the production to some 3-5 pcs which will be painful.
OK they will have probably in those years decent production of 767 tanker to compensate .... but still.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Oct 6, 2015 0:45:14 GMT 1
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Oct 6, 2015 10:06:56 GMT 1
Things to look out for in the short to medium term. Major changes to the widebody sector are inevitable. DeliveriesThis year Boeing will break all their industry records for annual deliveries set in 2014. At current rate they will break the records in November. Airbus should just break their own best year if they can deliver the hoped for 12 more A350s. Airbus will go up next year but Boeing will probably have a flatter year or two.
OrderbookThere is an imbalance between Airbus and Boeing when you look at the delivery to orderbook ratio. Doing the crude arithmetic Boeing have 6 years backlog and Airbus has 9. Either Boeing will get many more new orders or Airbus will increase deliveries. There will probably be a combination of both as avalability is a key purchasing criterion. Production RatesBig changes likely. 747 to go down ( to zero ?), A380 to go down ( Emirates only ? ), 777 to go down as transition to 777-8/9. A330 known to be going down. A350 going up and 787 going even higher ( 130+ in 2015 ). Top modelsThe all-time top three ( the 777-300ER , A330-200 and A330-300 ) are all nearing the end of their production runs. The 787-9 is set to supplant the 787-8 amongst Boeings newer offerings. Expect the A350-900 amd the 787-9 to dominate in terms of deiveries in the medium term. Dodgy OrdersMy wishlist for resolution includes ; The 2 A350-800 orders ( 16 frames ) The 777-8/9 split The non Emirates A380 orders most of which are not going to happen Best wishes Geoff |
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Oct 6, 2015 13:43:35 GMT 1
A bit more detail on the Airbus deliveries for 2015.
2014 record is 139 widebodies in a year.
2015 to date is 94 so 46 needed.
Hopefully they will deliver 27 A330s 12 A350s and 9 A380s.
Something else to look out for ( hope for ) - an updated A380 ( neo ? ) and a rush of new orders !!
Geoff
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Nov 6, 2015 12:46:41 GMT 1
Tables updated with latest month end figures from Airbus and Boeing. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LK3NGr1kFwYC9bk8u52J3X28fTAr3kPttsktJYHt2U8/edit?pli=1#gid=0Boeing on track for record yearly widebody deliveries. Airbus still lagging behind last year's figures with A330 deliveries lower than expected. 787-9 and A330-300 continue to be the best selling models with more big sales. There seems to have been a conversion of 6 A350-900 to A350-1000. More 787-8 conversions to 787-9 increasing the total sales gap between the two. I've added more detail at model/model series level, with new tables for deliveries and orderbook/unfilled orders. Boeing now reporting 777-8 and 777-9 separately, at last. Airbus still showing 16 unfilled orders for the A350-800. Geoff |
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
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Post by ghorn on Nov 22, 2015 10:24:28 GMT 1
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
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Post by mjoelnir on Nov 22, 2015 14:52:19 GMT 1
That blog is the cheer leading section for the 787. If his predictions are right we will see. |
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Post by stealthmanbob on Nov 22, 2015 15:30:10 GMT 1
That blog is the cheer leading section for the 787. If his predictions are right we will see. The cheer leader last year predicted 120 deliveries in 2015, and they will sail past that figure in the next 6 weeks  PS The information in his blog and the spreadsheets attached to the site are very good, and also prove to be very accurate. |
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Nov 22, 2015 18:00:37 GMT 1
That blog is the cheer leading section for the 787. If his predictions are right we will see. The cheer leader last year predicted 120 deliveries in 2015, and they will sail past that figure in the next 6 weeks PS The information in his blog and the spreadsheets attached to the site are very good, and also prove to be very accurate. I've found the data there to be good. 2015 deliveries should be around 135 so 140 next year is reasonable. Geoff |
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