Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on Aug 9, 2014 17:19:22 GMT 1
Just before the FAS, the media sensationalised how Boeing was outselling Airbus 2 to 1. Well, they have to change tack now to something more specific to keep the story interesting. The Airbus WB net stands at -27 as of now, but there's still a long way to go till the end of the year. The 121 A330neos haven't been firmed up yet. Then we have the rumours of on-going negotiations for 180-200 A330R from China. And also, the possibility of DL's widebody (anything up to around 50-70) order by the end of the year. |
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Sept 4, 2014 17:18:58 GMT 1
End August figures announced today by Airbus and Boeing. Here's my updated summary spreadsheet ; Widebody Doubledecker August 2014.xls (34 KB) A typically quiet August for deliveries by Airbus. Big month for 787 deliveries (13), so with 69 it is now ahead of both the 777 and the A330 (both 66) in the annual deliveries 'race'. 8 new orders for the A350-900 and 14 for the 777-300ER. 9 cancellations for the 787-8. Nothing new for the A380 !!! Airbus needs to firm some of those expected A330 orders to repair their annual figures. Orderbook gap to Boeing narrowed slightly. Boeing still annoying me by showing all their next generation 777s as '777X'. Are they really looking at alternatives to the 777-8 and 777-9 ? Geoff |
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Sept 4, 2014 19:45:10 GMT 1
AFAIK they are still looking for a name.
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on Sept 4, 2014 22:39:34 GMT 1
AFAIK they are still looking for a name. You mean a number or something similar to "Dreamliner" and "Intercontinental"? |
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Sept 5, 2014 8:33:36 GMT 1
The latter one. Something like Dreamliner indeed. Unless they call it 777 MAX or NG  |
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Oct 6, 2014 11:59:06 GMT 1
End of month figures ( end third quarter ) published by Airbus and Boeing. My spreadsheet with updated analysis is attached. Deliveries Another strong month for Boeing who are well ahead of schedule to beat last year's record. The 787 is ahead of schedule to break the record of 108 set by the A330 last year. Airbus are behind the rate of their record years ( 2012 and 2013 ) but usually have a strong fourth quarter. The A330 is below record rates ( by about 6 frames ) but will presumably have a strong end to the year. 2014 Sales The Air Berlin order for 15 787-8s appears to have been converted to 15 787-9s for an undisclosed customer. This is assumed to be Etihad and/or their equity partners. Two more A350-800s ( AWAS ) have been converted to A350-900 but a further 32 ( 4 customers ) remain on the orderbook. No A330neo orders booked. Airbus net widebody sales for the year are still negative. No update on the rumoured Chinese A330R order either. The current 777 and A330 models continue to sell well, both stand at plus 41 for the year. Total sales ( orders plus deliveries ) The 787-9 continues its rise in the all-time lists overtaking the 747-400 and with more conversions in the offing, will overtake the 787-8 soon. How long before it gets to number 1, nobody seems to be choosing the 787-8 any more. Production rates As 787 and A350 rates are set to rise there is speculation that the 777 and the A330 rates will be reduced before the new models are introduced. It does seem likely that they have peaked even though they are still selling well. I will do a separate post on this subject later, when I've analysed the orderbooks more fully. Unfortunately it looks like the A380 might need to reduce rate from 2016, if no new sales are obtained. Geoff |
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Post by addasih on Oct 6, 2014 16:44:32 GMT 1
Hi ghorn. Thanks a lot of the sheet and analysis. Did you consider using Google Document to update your sheet so you don't have to re-upload your sheet everytime. You just post the link for it and as soon as you update it, we will be able to see it. As starbucks and XWB are doing with their respective sheets (A350 test flights and Wing fix plus others) |
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Oct 6, 2014 23:51:28 GMT 1
Hi ghorn. Thanks a lot of the sheet and analysis. Did you consider using Google Document to update your sheet so you don't have to re-upload your sheet everytime. You just post the link for it and as soon as you update it, we will be able to see it. As starbucks and XWB are doing with their respective sheets (A350 test flights and Wing fix plus others) Thanks I've never used that. I'll give it a try and see how I get on. Geoff |
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Oct 9, 2014 12:49:09 GMT 1
Orderbooks and Production Rates
Looking at figures for widebody airliners show some big differences for the different families.
787/A350
Both ramping up to record delivery levels. The 787 is already at an industry record rate and is set to rise further. Although the 787 has the larger orderbook it enjoys an availability advantage over the A350 which will help it to sell better.
A380
Although an orderbook of 175 and a production rate of 30 per annum look healthy, I think that without new orders soon, Airbus will need to reduce production.
Of the 175 I would consider 39 ( Amedeo, Air Austral, Undisclosed-ex HKA, Virgin and Private ) are unlikely be be delivered ever and certainly not by the end of 2017. A further 53 I think will be delivered from 2018 onwards ( 40 of Emirates 87, Singapore and Qantas ). That leaves 83 to be delivered by end 2017 against 98 slots. Without new orders Airbus will need to reduce prouction rate from 2016 onwards.
767 and 748
The 748 may go out of production in the next 3 years with an order book of just 42.
The 767 production line will be kept open for freighters and military tankers. Passenger models unlikely to be produced further.
A330 and 777
Both currently being produced at 100+ per annum. With new replacement models in development the issue is to what extent production has to reduce before the new models are available. Both have sold 41 net this year but at that rate the orderbooks are reducing. The A330 has 230 on order against about 450 slots before the 'neo' is in full production. So the A330 need to either sell well or reduce production. The 777 has 280 on order and 550 slots so is in a very similar situation. Both Airbus and Boeing will be working hard to keep production levels up.
Geoff
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on Oct 9, 2014 14:58:38 GMT 1
Excellent analysis ghorn. The A330 has 230 on order against about 450 slots before the 'neo' is in full production. If the rumoured 200 unit order from China goes through, in addition to the existing order book that should help cover 400+ slots before full neo production. Some of the existing ceos might be delayed, cancelled, or converted to neos. Philippines Airlines is looking to delay theirs. And I don't know why Airbus still lists the 20 unit A330 order by Kingfisher Airlines...do they still exist???  |
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