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Post by vlafollower on Nov 21, 2013 0:36:05 GMT 1
Philidor - I read somewhere that Boeing has been one of his clients - stateside! Do you think he knows where his "bread is buttered" Do you think Boeing would hire him for disseminating negative disinformation?? Sounds like CIA stuff. His comments about the 747-8 are very reasonable; and measured. Hello? ? Do you think that Leahy would pay him for his VLA forecasts??? I think not.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
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Post by philidor on Nov 21, 2013 9:03:28 GMT 1
Philidor - I read somewhere that Boeing has been one of his clients - stateside! Do you think he knows where his "bread is buttered" Do you think Boeing would hire him for disseminating negative disinformation?? Sounds like CIA stuff. His comments about the 747-8 are very reasonable; and measured. Hello? ? Do you think that Leahy would pay him for his VLA forecasts??? I think not. It is probably not as clear-cut as I wrote it. He is certainly writing "independant" expert opinions, but he knows where his mouth is, and what those whom he has contracts with want to hear or to read. Independance is fine, but you have to know how to use it for a living ... When you have been writing for a long time, it is probably difficult to change side, so I think Airbus would use someone else.
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Post by vlafollower on Mar 7, 2014 18:52:44 GMT 1
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Post by Flying Dutchman on Mar 7, 2014 23:43:51 GMT 1
I think the a380 will still be needed on the most congested airports, but maybe not in large numbers, and maybe a neo or a 900 is needed. And yes passengers prefer a direct route, but in the end they will buy the cheapest option even if that is a longer route via a hub. (Just look at the success of low cost carriers)
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Mar 7, 2014 23:47:50 GMT 1
This is an opinion piece, and obviously an extremely biased one. This is the second anti-A380 direct attack in AW in a few weeks.
Such articles hardly deserve to be discussed.
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Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
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Post by Baroque on Mar 8, 2014 1:28:46 GMT 1
From the article...
It's very difficult to estimate the break even number like that. There's a whole lot of other factors to consider and a big part one should not ignore is the fact that a lot of the technologies developed for the A380 have also been transferred to the A350. This should reduce the break even compared to what it would have been if the A350 wasn't built. I recall that even changes in the exchange rates during the recession contributed to the bloated figure as well.
And besides, break even is irrelevant to Airbus at this stage anyway as they have already sunk all development costs. There's no turning back and you just have to keep producing it as long as you earn a profit out of every frame sold. I believe that's what Airbus is aiming for when they say it'll "become profitable in 2015".
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,957
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Post by s543 on Mar 8, 2014 8:48:13 GMT 1
There is another think - the production process improves and to produce next plane might get a bit cheaper than projected more than decade earlier.....
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Mar 8, 2014 14:13:10 GMT 1
From the article... It's very difficult to estimate the break even number like that. There's a whole lot of other factors to consider and a big part one should not ignore is the fact that a lot of the technologies developed for the A380 have also been transferred to the A350. This should reduce the break even compared to what it would have been if the A350 wasn't built. I recall that even changes in the exchange rates during the recession contributed to the bloated figure as well. And besides, break even is irrelevant to Airbus at this stage anyway as they have already sunk all development costs. There's no turning back and you just have to keep producing it as long as you earn a profit out of every frame sold. I believe that's what Airbus is aiming for when they say it'll "become profitable in 2015". There are two break even points, production break even and program break even. Production break even means that the production cost of the air plane is lower or the same as the realized sales price. Airbus declares to reach production break even in 2015. The different reasons could be: production cost is down and/or sales revenue is up, no late delivery penalty's, no launch customer discounts etc. From 2015 the A380 will provide positive cash flow and profit to Airbus. Program break even means that the program returned all incurred cost. That was planned at frame #250. After the delays, cost overruns, wing fix etc., it is questionable that that will ever be reached. As Airbus has already written off these costs, we will likely never be informed if program break even will be reached or not.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
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Post by philidor on Mar 8, 2014 15:48:28 GMT 1
... we will likely never be informed if program break even will be reached or not. I hope we will ! If ever Airbus reaches or exceeds program break even, they may say so ! Airbus however is not officially using program accounting.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
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Post by mjoelnir on Mar 8, 2014 19:23:41 GMT 1
... we will likely never be informed if program break even will be reached or not. I hope we will ! If ever Airbus reaches or exceeds program break even, they may say so ! Airbus however is not officially using program accounting. Program accounting is something different. You calculate an estimated average production cost. In the beginning of the program the production cost will be higher than the estimated one. When you sell the air plane and the production cost is higher you put the difference in "storage". As long the real production cost is higher than the estimated one the deferred amount is increasing, when later in the program the production cost falls below the estimated or average production cost the deferred amount is decreasing. You do this accounting for an estimated block of aircraft you sell and at the end of this block the deferred amount should be zero. Program accounting does not take cost like development cost of the air plane in account. So we will not be informed either in program accounting when a program break even, as we understand it here in Europe, will be reached. The main aim of the program accounting system is to even out profits, so that at the beginning of a program the profits of the company do not suffer too much.
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