mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
|
Post by mjoelnir on Jul 17, 2014 13:19:40 GMT 1
Last Airbus press conference FIA. 121 commitments for the A330neo up to now. 8 new orders for A330ceo. Leahy expects to sell about 200 A330ceo to keep line running at full tilt until A330neo takes fully over. He is, as always, optimistic about that. As discussed above I think Leahy needs to sell 250 ceos to achieve this. If he sells 200 then total A330 production will dip below current levels in 2017 and 2018. Still a fantastic achievement by Airbus if they can smoothly transition from ceo to neo. Good to see 8 new ceos for Transaero but some, say 15, of the Air Asia order for neos will be ceo conversions. Geoff Let us assume that Leahy has included the Air Asia conversions and the new orders in the need for 200 more A330ceo. I think where you are way to high is 115 A330ceo together for 2018 and 2019. Cut that number down to 65, perhaps 40 in 2018 and 25 in 2019 and you are at Lehay's estimate. Airbus seems to assume that they do not need a slow ramp up for the neo while moving production from A330ceo to neo.
|
|
XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
|
Post by XWB on Jul 17, 2014 13:53:34 GMT 1
We also have to extract the Kingfisher order for 15 A330s.
|
|
Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
|
Post by Baroque on Jul 17, 2014 15:07:39 GMT 1
...but some, say 15, of the Air Asia order for neos will be ceo conversions. Geoff Not clear if this is the case. If you consider the following quote from a reuters article: ...it seems to suggest that he wants all the aircraft on order but that he may convert 10-15 of the existing ceos to another batch of neos on top of the 50 he just signed up for. The delivery schedule will determine if he would take the ceos or migrate it to more neos.
|
|
s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
|
Post by s543 on Jul 17, 2014 16:49:49 GMT 1
I do believe there might be some orders for the coming 330R version in preparation for some of the Asian airlines. Do not forget those. AB was last year very enthusiastic about this version, and I do believe that such a version with lower MTOW, lighter less powerful engines... has merit for 2-4 hours thick routes.
We know there is a lot of those in ASIA and we have routes even in EU which were/are flown by 767.... There are routes to from LHR where there is a flight every 40 minutes. We have similar routes to TLV and more. There are US routes where such a plane would make sense - but doubt US airlines will go for it.
So let's wait until next year - it might come.
|
|
Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
|
Post by Baroque on Jul 17, 2014 17:03:52 GMT 1
We also have to extract the Kingfisher order for 15 A330s. Why is Airbus holding onto this???
|
|
philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
|
Post by philidor on Jul 17, 2014 17:50:50 GMT 1
We also have to extract the Kingfisher order for 15 A330s. Why is Airbus holding onto this??? Because there is still a small chance that somebody might buy the empty Kingfisher shell and, trying to revive it, might be interested in these orders ... Airbus cancelled those orders that had no chance, in that case, to be taken up by the new company (A380s, A350s), but kept on its books the narrowbodies and A330s.
|
|
s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
|
A330neo
Jul 17, 2014 21:07:26 GMT 1
Post by s543 on Jul 17, 2014 21:07:26 GMT 1
I doubt they could expect someone to buy the Kingfisher "shell" since there are such a huge debts that it could not be worthwhile. I would believe that the reason might be some legal-contractual "jumbo-mumbo".
They of course does not expect that those projected frames would go to those customers. They collected the prepayment, so.....
|
|
XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
|
Post by XWB on Jul 17, 2014 21:11:16 GMT 1
|
|
s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
|
Post by s543 on Jul 17, 2014 21:17:11 GMT 1
Right - thanks XWB for the link to JUNE article - so basically no realistic expectations for someone buying it. Still AB could be happy to collect the prepayment I have read the article month ago
|
|
Baroque
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,991
|
A330neo
Jul 17, 2014 22:11:18 GMT 1
Post by Baroque on Jul 17, 2014 22:11:18 GMT 1
I think they're keeping the contract alive but are also giving the slots to whoever who needs it more.
|
|