mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Jul 16, 2014 4:05:51 GMT 1
Airbus are quoting some aggressive timescales for the A330neo with EIS in 4Q17 and capability to deliver 10 a month by beginning of 2019. Even so that gives at least 4 and a half years of A330ceo production from now plus those that they manage to sell for delivery in 2019 onwards. John Leahy has just confirmed at the CIT signing that they will produce both the ceo and the neo from 2019. At current production rates of 110 per annum that's 500 ceos as against on order book of 243. Will Airbus manage to sell 250+ ceos or will they have to reduce production ? They seem to be doing it for the A320 can they do the same for the A330 ? Geoff It is only the rest of 2014 and 2015, 2016, 2017 at 110 frames per year for the ceo. So let us say 350 frames. From 2018 the 110 will be a mix of neo and ceo and that means deliveries. From the go it can be 110 neo a year as the worst case for the ceo. If we assume 50 ceo frames a year 2018 and 2019 as max than I see a minimum of 350 and a maximum of 450 frames for the ceo until 2019. That means that 110 to 210 ceos have to be sold or the line has to slow down. For operation on trips of up to 3,000 NM a A330-300 ceo could be cheaper to buy and to run, perhaps if the 200 frames order from China comes all the problems are solved.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Jul 16, 2014 7:47:47 GMT 1
They will also sell some MRTTs for sure.
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Post by Jkkw on Jul 16, 2014 16:35:38 GMT 1
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jul 16, 2014 17:20:07 GMT 1
I understand that Airbus intends to mount the engines closer to the wing in order to accomodate larger engines and keep the existing ground clearance, without modifying the landing gear. That's probably the most tricky problem in the A330 NEO.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Jul 16, 2014 17:38:37 GMT 1
I understand that Airbus intends to mount the engines closer to the wing in order to accomodate larger engines and keep the existing ground clearance, without modifying the landing gear. That's probably the most tricky problem in the A330 NEO. Just the same as they do for the A320neo.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Jul 16, 2014 22:33:07 GMT 1
Airbus are quoting some aggressive timescales for the A330neo with EIS in 4Q17 and capability to deliver 10 a month by beginning of 2019. Even so that gives at least 4 and a half years of A330ceo production from now plus those that they manage to sell for delivery in 2019 onwards. John Leahy has just confirmed at the CIT signing that they will produce both the ceo and the neo from 2019. At current production rates of 110 per annum that's 500 ceos as against on order book of 243. Will Airbus manage to sell 250+ ceos or will they have to reduce production ? They seem to be doing it for the A320 can they do the same for the A330 ? Geoff It is only the rest of 2014 and 2015, 2016, 2017 at 110 frames per year for the ceo. So let us say 350 frames. From 2018 the 110 will be a mix of neo and ceo and that means deliveries. From the go it can be 110 neo a year as the worst case for the ceo. If we assume 50 ceo frames a year 2018 and 2019 as max than I see a minimum of 350 and a maximum of 450 frames for the ceo until 2019. That means that 110 to 210 ceos have to be sold or the line has to slow down. For operation on trips of up to 3,000 NM a A330-300 ceo could be cheaper to buy and to run, perhaps if the 200 frames order from China comes all the problems are solved. I make it 55 this year, 110 per year for 2015-2017, then 55 in 2018, plus a few a year thereafter, say another 60. That makes 500 in total or another 250 to be sold. Mainly guesswork of course but Airbus must have a forecast which makes for commercial success. Geoff
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Jul 17, 2014 3:34:19 GMT 1
It is only the rest of 2014 and 2015, 2016, 2017 at 110 frames per year for the ceo. So let us say 350 frames. From 2018 the 110 will be a mix of neo and ceo and that means deliveries. From the go it can be 110 neo a year as the worst case for the ceo. If we assume 50 ceo frames a year 2018 and 2019 as max than I see a minimum of 350 and a maximum of 450 frames for the ceo until 2019. That means that 110 to 210 ceos have to be sold or the line has to slow down. For operation on trips of up to 3,000 NM a A330-300 ceo could be cheaper to buy and to run, perhaps if the 200 frames order from China comes all the problems are solved. I make it 55 this year, 110 per year for 2015-2017, then 55 in 2018, plus a few a year thereafter, say another 60. That makes 500 in total or another 250 to be sold. Mainly guesswork of course but Airbus must have a forecast which makes for commercial success. Geoff Airbus is talking about last year of production in 2019 for the ceo, you imagine 60 ceo and 50 neo that year? Why 55ceo in 2018, I assume Airbus will maximise sales effort on the neo. Every A330 produced in 2018 and 2019 can theoretically be a neo. So you can cut your have to be sold number by 115. You can cut a few more because Airbus never reached 110 a year. And again a few more MRTT´s as they are not counted in the not yet delivered order number of 243. That is why I count 50 2014 and a 100 each for each of 2014, 2016, 2017 with the first neo end of 2017. That makes 350 with 243 already sold makes 107. As the neo and ceo will be produced on the same line, the ramp up of the neo should be depended on ramp up of neo orders and production of Trent 7000. I expect Airbus, as in the 320neo, to introduce changes to fuselage, wings and winglets to be introduced before the engine change and meanwhile slow down the production slightly. Airbus is expecting now to make the changes to the frame weight neutral so there would be no reason to produce two versions apart from the engine and phylon. www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/farnborough-airbus-outlines-a330neo-engineering-demands-401664/I do not want to say that we will not see 500 more A330ceo, but it will not be necessary for the program if the A330neo really takes off.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Jul 17, 2014 12:54:11 GMT 1
Last Airbus press conference FIA.
121 commitments for the A330neo up to now. 8 new orders for A330ceo.
Leahy expects to sell about 200 A330ceo to keep line running at full tilt until A330neo takes fully over. He is, as always, optimistic about that.
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Jul 17, 2014 13:00:13 GMT 1
He was optimistic about the A320ceo as well and now he's overbooking production slots.
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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Post by ghorn on Jul 17, 2014 13:08:37 GMT 1
Last Airbus press conference FIA. 121 commitments for the A330neo up to now. 8 new orders for A330ceo. Leahy expects to sell about 200 A330ceo to keep line running at full tilt until A330neo takes fully over. He is, as always, optimistic about that. As discussed above I think Leahy needs to sell 250 ceos to achieve this. If he sells 200 then total A330 production will dip below current levels in 2017 and 2018. Still a fantastic achievement by Airbus if they can smoothly transition from ceo to neo. Good to see 8 new ceos for Transaero but some, say 15, of the Air Asia order for neos will be ceo conversions. Geoff
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