XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Dec 5, 2017 17:44:27 GMT 1
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Post by Jkkw on Dec 6, 2017 9:25:33 GMT 1
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Dec 6, 2017 10:29:48 GMT 1
Leeham's analysis on the future and potential market for the -800. Apart from its pessimistic prediction regarding the HA order, Leeham's views on the A338 are much more positive than I would have expected. Notably, he thinks the aircraft is well-positioned - and more competitive than the 788 - on the long-range LCC market because these operators could fit the aircraft with a very dense cabin allowing them to use it on 10 to twelve hours. |
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959 
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Post by s543 on Dec 6, 2017 15:50:45 GMT 1
Proof to Leeham's views are AB's own actions. It is going forward with the 338 construction. I do believe they do know more than is said publicly. They had much more orders for A358 and scraped the project - not the case here !
They have some reasonable proof that the orders are on the way. They know they need it for the military and I am sure they do want to sell the MRTT well into the future.
But as always - we will see.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Dec 6, 2017 19:09:49 GMT 1
Proof to Leeham's views are AB's own actions. ... They had much more orders for A358 and scraped the project - not the case here ! The decision not to build the A358 was not only only driven by market considerations, industrial organisation also played a part. This smaller (thus cheaper) A358 would have competed for scarce production slots with larger A350 variants. Instead, its replacement, the A330neo, is produced on another existing assembly line, allowing a better distribution of the workload. They know they need it for the military and I am sure they do want to sell the MRTT well into the future. I doubt very much existing A332 MRTT customers would willingly move to an A338 MRTT. Military customers don't value fuel savings as much as fleet communality and cheap purchase price (their fleets spend a lot of time on the ground). Even potential new customers might prefer the cheaper existing type and, anyhow, there are not so many of them. To sell an A338-based MRTT, Airbus would have to force reluctant customers to upgrade by terminating production of the existing type just a few years after delivering it ... That would be unwise, in my opinion. |
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Dec 6, 2017 21:33:42 GMT 1
I doubt very much existing A332 MRTT customers would willingly move to an A338 MRTT. Military customers don't value fuel savings as much as fleet communality and cheap purchase price (their fleets spend a lot of time on the ground). Even potential new customers might prefer the cheaper existing type and, anyhow, there are not so many of them. To sell an A338-based MRTT, Airbus would have to force reluctant customers to upgrade by terminating production of the existing type just a few years after delivering it ... That would be unwise, in my opinion. I am less pessimistic about a A330MRTTneo. It will cost more, but with MTOW increase to 251 t and engines burning less fuel, capabilities are added. Less fuel burn increases the amount of fuel being able to be transferred and the MTOW increase also helps when you transfer a unit with the frames, some freight and needed personal and being able to lift and transfer more fuel. |
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Dec 7, 2017 0:59:39 GMT 1
You are right about the improvements an A338 MRTT could bring. Unfortunately, military customers have their own approach. I am not sure they would value the new capabilities much (see how the US Air Force selected an old engine to power the KC 46). Furthermore, in most countries, budget rules favour a lower purchase price over a lower fuel burn.
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s543
in service - 2 years
Posts: 3,959
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Post by s543 on Dec 7, 2017 9:58:46 GMT 1
MRTT:
I was meaning a situation something like 7-10 years into the future - they will not be able to produce the 332 anymore i.e. the 338 will come into action.
And overall 338 orders - here we see for instance IndiGo - they might buy AirIndia - than OK - forget it. They might not buy it and here we do have HUGE order on the table etc.
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Jan 8, 2018 12:21:57 GMT 1
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A330neo
Jan 13, 2018 18:10:08 GMT 1
Post by kevin5345179 on Jan 13, 2018 18:10:08 GMT 1
One thing I just never understand is how come 787 has pretty impressive backlog and crazy production rate, but how come we don't see the same for A330 neo ..... I actually buy the explanation from Leeham news, but that doesn't seem to reflect what's actually happening in the market .....
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