philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jan 14, 2018 11:46:49 GMT 1
One thing I just never understand is how come 787 has pretty impressive backlog and crazy production rate, but how come we don't see the same for A330 neo The answer is not easy. Part of it is that the 787 was launched long ago and immediately collected more than a thousand orders, building a huge backlog still not fully depleted. These early customers enjoyed very low prices and many have increased their order in the following years. By contrast, the A330neo was launched with orders mostly from lessors (Leahy explained that lessors can move more quickly than airlines). As long as these lessors haven't found customers for all their planes, they offer the best slots and Airbus is somehow competing with them. Delta Airlines and Air Asia are among the rare airlines with a direct A330neo order. Another reason for subdued A330neo sales may be that Airbus has a strong alternative, the A359, while there is no 787 competitor in Boeing's product line. Now, let's move to a direct comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the respective sub-types. At nine-abreast, the 788 has a significant economic advantage over an eight-abreast A338, but neither of them presently sells, as both are deemed inferior to the larger sub-types. In the future, low-cost airlines might however introduce nine-abreast A338 which would have unbeatable CASM/CASK, whereas Boeing seems determined to kill the money-losing 788. At eight-abreast, the A339 is very close to the nine-abreast 789, but it is still somewhat inferior on long routes. The A339 fully matches the 789 on shorter routes only, so altogether the 789 has a (small) advantage. As the 787 is now available with reasonable lead times, Airbus mainly competes on price, exerting a lot of pressure on 787 economics. Another A330neo advantage is commonality with A330ceo, which should play a part when that first generation begins to be replaced. Though the A339/A338 will never be best-sellers, I think they will do well complementing the A359, and that's all they are intended to do.
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Post by marlibu on Jan 14, 2018 12:57:17 GMT 1
Thanks for such a detailed explanation philidor. I saw a post sometime ago, stating that Airbus does not have a direct competitor to Boeing, their models are either larger or smaller (i.e. the 330 vs 767). do you think Airbus will develop a true competitor to the 787? or will they incrementally improve the 339?
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Jan 14, 2018 13:25:38 GMT 1
One should also not forget that their were heaps of A330 ordered and delivered, the bulk of them rather new. The 787 backlog is being delivered now and the A330 have been delivered. What happens when the current operating A330 are getting old is yet to come to light. If the A33Oneo gets a good part of the A330ceo replacement market, there will be quite a few sales.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jan 15, 2018 11:54:03 GMT 1
Thanks for such a detailed explanation philidor. I saw a post sometime ago, stating that Airbus does not have a direct competitor to Boeing, their models are either larger or smaller (i.e. the 330 vs 767). do you think Airbus will develop a true competitor to the 787? or will they incrementally improve the 339? Indeed, both manufacturers tend to offer widebodies that are somehow different from the alternative line-up, in order to avoid a purely price-based competition. For instance : - designing the A350, Airbus sized it between the 787 and the 777 ; - designing the 777 successor, Boeing made sure that the 778 had more MTOW and range than the A35K, while the 779 offered more seats. There is however less difference in size and performance between the A330 and the 787 than in the above cases. I believe that Boeing initially intended to achieve a larger performance gap, but had to compromise as a consequence of early 787 development and production issues (for instance, the three sub-types got the same wing, which was not the initial plan). I am sure Airbus intend to keep selling the A330 - and is still improving it - even if the rate of production has to be slowed down.
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mjoelnir
in service - 2 years
Posts: 4,089
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Post by mjoelnir on Jan 15, 2018 12:36:19 GMT 1
Thanks for such a detailed explanation philidor. I saw a post sometime ago, stating that Airbus does not have a direct competitor to Boeing, their models are either larger or smaller (i.e. the 330 vs 767). do you think Airbus will develop a true competitor to the 787? or will they incrementally improve the 339? Indeed, both manufacturers tend to offer widebodies that are somehow different from the alternative line-up, in order to avoid a purely price-based competition. For instance : - designing the A350, Airbus sized it between the 787 and the 777 ; - designing the 777 successor, Boeing made sure that the 778 had more MTOW and range than the A35K, while the 779 offered more seats. There is however less difference in size and performance between the A330 and the 787 than in the above cases. I believe that Boeing initially intended to achieve a larger performance gap, but had to compromise as a consequence of early 787 development and production issues (for instance, the three sub-types got the same wing, which was not the initial plan). I am sure Airbus intend to keep selling the A330 - and is still improving it - even if the rate of production has to be slowed down. I think that Airbus is quite proactive in slowing production rates. The A330 is currently at 6 * 11 = 66 frames a year. Or at rate 5.5. The combined backlog is 317 frames all types, at the current rate of 66 a year a nearly 5 year backlog. The orders were low in 2017, but average orders were 80 frames over the last 3 years. I do not see any need for Airbus for thinking about rate reduction.
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Jan 17, 2018 16:02:59 GMT 1
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ghorn
Outfitting in Hamburg
Posts: 993
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A330neo
Jan 17, 2018 17:19:28 GMT 1
Post by ghorn on Jan 17, 2018 17:19:28 GMT 1
Bad news, I guess the lessor is still looking for someone to take this frame after the demise of Air Berlin. Geoff
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jan 18, 2018 13:01:51 GMT 1
The aircraft may not be stored for a long time, just an unknown time span.
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XWB
in service - 11 years
Posts: 16,115
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Post by XWB on Jan 18, 2018 13:04:18 GMT 1
As certification isn't due until mid-2018, this aircraft won't be delivered until H2 2018. Hence the storage protection coat.
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philidor
in service - 6 years
Posts: 8,950
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Post by philidor on Jan 18, 2018 14:09:00 GMT 1
Thank you, XWB.
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